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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The paper discusses several of the challenges associated with developing a credible reliability estimate for a human-rated crew capsule thermal protection system. The process of developing such a credible estimate is subject to the quantification, modeling and propagation of numerous uncertainties within a probabilistic analysis. The development of specific investment recommendations, to improve the reliability prediction, among various potential testing and programmatic options is then accomplished through Bayesian analysis.
    Keywords: Quality Assurance and Reliability
    Type: NF1676L-16765 , Paper No. IPPW-10-77 , International Planetary Probe Workshop (IPPW-10); Jun 17, 2013 - Jun 21, 2013; San Jose, CA; United States
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Software that is used for aerospace flight control and to display information to pilots and crew is expected to be correct and credible at all times. This type of software is typically developed under strict management processes, which are intended to reduce defects in the software product. However, modeling and simulation (M&S) software may exhibit varying degrees of correctness and credibility, depending on a large and complex set of factors. These factors include its intended use, the known physics and numerical approximations within the M&S, and the referent data set against which the M&S correctness is compared. The correctness and credibility of an M&S effort is closely correlated to the uncertainty management (UM) practices that are applied to the M&S effort. This paper describes an uncertainty structure matrix for M&S, which provides a set of objective descriptions for the possible states of UM practices within a given M&S effort. The columns in the uncertainty structure matrix contain UM elements or practices that are common across most M&S efforts, and the rows describe the potential levels of achievement in each of the elements. A practitioner can quickly look at the matrix to determine where an M&S effort falls based on a common set of UM practices that are described in absolute terms that can be applied to virtually any M&S effort. The matrix can also be used to plan those steps and resources that would be needed to improve the UM practices for a given M&S effort.
    Keywords: Quality Assurance and Reliability
    Type: AIAA Paper 2008-2154 , 10th AIAA Non-Deterministic Approaches Conference; Apr 07, 2008 - Apr 10, 2008; Schaumburg, IL; United States
    Format: application/pdf
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