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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Theoretical Ecology 4 (2011): 301-319, doi:10.1007/s12080-010-0079-8.
    Description: Stage-structured epidemic models provide a way to connect the interacting processes of infection and demography. Reproduction and development can replenish the pool of susceptible hosts, and demographic structure leads to heterogeneous transmission and disease risk. Epidemics, in turn, can increase mortality or reduce fertility of the host population. Here we present a framework that integrates both demography and epidemiology in models for stage-structured epidemics. We use the vec-permutation matrix approach to classify individuals jointly by their demographic stage and infection status. We describe demographic and epidemic processes as alternating in time with a periodic matrix models. The application of matrix calculus to this framework allows for the calculation of R0 and sensitivity analysis.
    Description: P.K. acknowledges support of UNESCO-L’Or´eal Fellowship ”For Women in Science”, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Health Grant R01-GM083983-01, National Science Foundation Grant 0742373. H.C. acknowledges support from National Science Foundation Grant DEB-0816514 and the Ocean Life Institute.
    Keywords: Disease dynamics ; Stage-structure ; Basic reproductive number ; Sensitivity
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 2
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    John Wiley & Sons
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Ecology 101 (2013): 585–595, doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12088.
    Description: Senescence (an increase in the mortality rate or force of mortality, or a decrease in fertility, with increasing age) is a widespread phenomenon. Theories about the evolution of senescence have long focused on the age trajectories of the selection gradients on mortality and fertility. In purely age-classified models, these selection gradients are non-increasing with age, implying that traits expressed early in life have a greater impact on fitness than traits expressed later in life. This pattern leads inevitably to the evolution of senescence if there are trade-offs between early and late performance. It has long been suspected that the stage- or size-dependent demography typical of plants might change these conclusions. In this paper, we develop a model that includes both stage- and age-dependence and derive the age-dependent, stage-dependent and age×stage-dependent selection gradients on mortality and fertility. We applied this model to stage-classified population projection matrices for 36 species of plants, from a wide variety of growth forms (from mosses to trees) and habitats. We found that the age-specific selection gradients within a life cycle stage can exhibit increases with age (we call these contra-senescent selection gradients). In later stages, often large size classes in plant demography, the duration of these contra-senescent gradients can exceed the life expectancy by several fold. Synthesis. The interaction of age- and stage-dependence in plants leads to selection pressures on senescence fundamentally different from those found in previous, age-classified theories. This result may explain the observation that large plants seem less subject to senescence than most kinds of animals. The methods presented here can lead to improved analysis of both age-dependent and stage-dependent demographic properties of plant populations.
    Description: H.C. acknowledges NSF grants DEB-0816514 and DEB-1145017, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and a Research Award from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. R.S.-G. thanks the Evolutionary Biodemography laboratory of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) for support in data preparation.
    Keywords: Ageing ; ComPADRe III database ; Matrix population models ; Plant development and life history traits ; Selection gradients ; Sensitivity ; Stage-structured demography ; Vec-permutation matrix
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © University of Chicago, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of University of Chicago for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in American Naturalist 175 (2010): 739-752, doi:10.1086/652436.
    Description: We present a new approach to modeling two‐sex populations, using periodic, nonlinear two‐sex matrix models. The models project the population growth rate, the population structure, and any ratio of interest (e.g., operational sex ratio). The periodic formulation permits inclusion of highly seasonal behavioral events. A periodic product of the seasonal matrices describes annual population dynamics. The model is nonlinear because mating probability depends on the structure of the population. To study how the vital rates influence population growth rate, population structure, and operational sex ratio, we used sensitivity analysis of frequency‐dependent nonlinear models. In nonlinear two‐sex models the vital rates affect growth rate directly and also indirectly through effects on the population structure. The indirect effects can sometimes overwhelm the direct effects and are revealed only by nonlinear analysis. We find that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to female survival is negative for the emperor penguin, a species with highly seasonal breeding behavior. This result could not occur in linear models because changes in population structure have no effect on per capita reproduction. Our approach is applicable to ecological and evolutionary studies of any species in which males and females interact in a seasonal environment.
    Description: H.C. acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (DEB-0343820 and DEB-0816514) and the Ocean Life Institute and the hospitality of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
    Keywords: Two‐sex periodic matrix model ; Population structure ; Population growth rate ; Mating systems ; Sex ratio ; Emperor penguin
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Ecology 103 (2015): 202–218, doi:10.1111/1365-2745.12334.
    Description: Schedules of survival, growth and reproduction are key life-history traits. Data on how these traits vary among species and populations are fundamental to our understanding of the ecological conditions that have shaped plant evolution. Because these demographic schedules determine population growth or decline, such data help us understand how different biomes shape plant ecology, how plant populations and communities respond to global change and how to develop successful management tools for endangered or invasive species. Matrix population models summarize the life cycle components of survival, growth and reproduction, while explicitly acknowledging heterogeneity among classes of individuals in the population. Matrix models have comparable structures, and their emergent measures of population dynamics, such as population growth rate or mean life expectancy, have direct biological interpretations, facilitating comparisons among populations and species. Thousands of plant matrix population models have been parameterized from empirical data, but they are largely dispersed through peer-reviewed and grey literature, and thus remain inaccessible for synthetic analysis. Here, we introduce the compadre Plant Matrix Database version 3.0, an open-source online repository containing 468 studies from 598 species world-wide (672 species hits, when accounting for species studied in more than one source), with a total of 5621 matrices. compadre also contains relevant ancillary information (e.g. ecoregion, growth form, taxonomy, phylogeny) that facilitates interpretation of the numerous demographic metrics that can be derived from the matrices. Large collections of data allow broad questions to be addressed at the global scale, for example, in genetics (genbank), functional plant ecology (try, bien, d3) and grassland community ecology (nutnet). Here, we present compadre, a similarly data-rich and ecologically relevant resource for plant demography. Open access to this information, its frequent updates and its integration with other online resources will allow researchers to address timely and important ecological and evolutionary questions.
    Keywords: Big data ; Comparative approach ; Elasticity ; Matrix population model ; Open access ; Plant population and community dynamics ; Population growth rate ; Sensitivity ; Transient dynamics
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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