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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 4209–4227, doi:10.1002/2016JC011646.
    Description: Relative contributions between the local atmospheric and oceanic processes on the interannual variability of winter-spring shelf temperature in the Middle Atlantic Bight (MAB) are investigated based on a regional ocean model. The model demonstrates sufficient capability to realistically simulate the interannual temperature changes during 2003–2014. On interannual time scales, the mean winter/spring temperature in the MAB is determined by the combination of the initial temperature at the beginning of the season and the mean cumulative air-sea flux, while the mean cumulative ocean advective flux plays a secondary role. In spite of the overall importance of air-sea flux in determining the winter and spring temperature, the relative contributions between air-sea flux and ocean advective flux on the evolution of the temperature anomaly in each individual year varies. The predictability of spring (April–June) temperature based on winter (January–March) temperature is weak because the temporal decorrelation time scale changes significantly from year to year. Both the highly variable shelf temperature and its decorrelation time scale are affected by the changes in the relative contributions between the air-sea flux and ocean advective flux.
    Description: National Science Foundation Grant Number: OCE-1435602
    Description: 2016-12-18
    Keywords: Interannual variability ; Winter-spring temperature ; Air-sea flux ; Ocean advective flux ; Decorrelation time scale ; Predictability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 22 (2009): 3177–3192, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2690.1.
    Description: Coherent, large-scale shifts in the paths of the Gulf Stream (GS) and the Kuroshio Extension (KE) occur on interannual to decadal time scales. Attention has usually been drawn to causes for these shifts in the overlying atmosphere, with some built-in delay of up to a few years resulting from propagation of wind-forced variability within the ocean. However, these shifts in the latitudes of separated western boundary currents can cause substantial changes in SST, which may influence the synoptic atmospheric variability with little or no time delay. Various measures of wintertime atmospheric variability in the synoptic band (2–8 days) are examined using a relatively new dataset for air–sea exchange [Objectively Analyzed Air–Sea Fluxes (OAFlux)] and subsurface temperature indices of the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio path that are insulated from direct air–sea exchange, and therefore are preferable to SST. Significant changes are found in the atmospheric variability following changes in the paths of these currents, sometimes in a local fashion such as meridional shifts in measures of local storm tracks, and sometimes in nonlocal, broad regions coincident with and downstream of the oceanic forcing. Differences between the North Pacific (KE) and North Atlantic (GS) may be partly related to the more zonal orientation of the KE and the stronger SST signals of the GS, but could also be due to differences in mean storm-track characteristics over the North Pacific and North Atlantic.
    Description: Support for this work from various grants [T. Joyce: NSF OCE-0424865; Y.-O. Kwon: The Grayce B. Kerr Fund and The Jessie B. Cox Endowed Fund; L.Yu: NOAA NA17RJ1223 and NASA Vector Wind Science Team through JPL Subcontract 1283726] is gratefully acknowledged.
    Keywords: Synoptic-scale processes ; Winter/cool season ; Atmospheric circulation ; Boundary currents ; Interannual variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2013. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 26 (2013): 9774–9790, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00862.1.
    Description: The influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability on the atmospheric circulation is investigated in a control simulation of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), where the AMOC evolves from an oscillatory regime into a red noise regime. In the latter, an AMOC intensification is followed during winter by a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The atmospheric response is robust and controlled by AMOC-driven SST anomalies, which shift the heat release to the atmosphere northward near the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current. This alters the low-level atmospheric baroclinicity and shifts the maximum eddy growth northward, affecting the storm track and favoring a positive NAO. The AMOC influence is detected in the relation between seasonal upper-ocean heat content or SST anomalies and winter sea level pressure. In the oscillatory regime, no direct AMOC influence is detected in winter. However, an upper-ocean heat content anomaly resembling the AMOC footprint precedes a negative NAO. This opposite NAO polarity seems due to the southward shift of the Gulf Stream during AMOC intensification, displacing the maximum baroclinicity southward near the jet exit. As the mode has somewhat different patterns when using SST, the wintertime impact of the AMOC lacks robustness in this regime. However, none of the signals compares well with the observed influence of North Atlantic SST anomalies on the NAO because SST is dominated in CCSM3 by the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current that covary with the AMOC. Hence, although there is some potential climate predictability in CCSM3, it is not realistic.
    Description: Support from the NOAA Climate Program Office (Grant Number NA10OAR4310202) and the European Community 7th Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013) under Grant Agreements GA212643 (THOR) and n.308299 (NACLIM) is gratefully acknowledged.
    Description: 2014-06-15
    Keywords: Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Thermohaline circulation ; Decadal variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 8185–8204, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00500.1.
    Description: The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) constitute two outstanding surface atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the winter sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the western North Pacific. The present analyses show the relationship between the EAWM and NPO and their impact on the SST are nonstationary and regime-dependent with a sudden change around 1988. These surface circulation patterns are tightly linked to the upper-level Ural and Kamchatka blockings, respectively. During the 1973–87 strong winter monsoon epoch, the EAWM and NPO were significantly correlated to each other, but their correlation practically vanishes during the 1988–2002 weak winter monsoon epoch. This nonstationary relationship is related to the pronounced decadal weakening of the Siberian high system over the Eurasian continent after the 1988 regime shift as well as the concomitant positive NPO-like dipole change and its eastward migration in tropospheric circulation over the North Pacific. There is a tight tropical–extratropical teleconnection in the western North Pacific in the strong monsoon epoch, which disappears in the weak monsoon epoch when there is a significant eastward shift of tropical influence and enhanced storm tracks into the eastern North Pacific. A tentative mechanism of the nonstationary relationship between the EAWM and NPO is proposed, stressing the pivotal role played in the above teleconnection by a decadal shift of the East Asian trough resulting from the abrupt decline of the EAWM since the late 1980s.
    Description: G. Pak has been supported from the Brain Korea 21 Project of SNU, for which we are very grateful to K.-R. Kim, and also from the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, South Korea (OCCAPA and EAST-I projects). Y.-O. Kwon is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics program (AGS-1035423) and Department of Energy (DOE) Climate and Environmental Science Division (DESC0007052).
    Description: 2015-05-01
    Keywords: Climate variability ; Interannual variability ; Interdecadal variability ; North Pacific Oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): C04011, doi:10.1029/2010JC006863.
    Description: Observations show that the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (ECS-Kuroshio) responds to the large-scale wind stress curl field at two time scales. It is argued that these two responses are related to barotropic and baroclinic modes that reach the ECS via different waveguides. Variability in the ECS-Kuroshio is assessed by comparing satellite altimetry, historical hydrography, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index with the latter used as a proxy for the large-scale wind stress curl forcing. Sea level difference across the ECS-Kuroshio is positively correlated with PDO at zero lag and negatively correlated at 7 year lag. In contrast, pycnocline steepness and PDO are uncorrelated at zero lag and negatively correlated at 7 year lag. These signals in the ECS-Kuroshio, considered together with wind stress curl anomalies in the open ocean, are consistent with a barotropic response to the wind at zero lag. The barotropic response is likely forced in the central North Pacific by wind stress curl anomalies of opposite sign, one of which is centered at ECS latitudes (∼27°N) while the other sits further north. This suggests that, in general, the absolute transport at a given latitude is not simply that predicted by the Sverdrup balance along the latitude. This is a consequence of waveguides that can steer the barotropic mode across latitude lines. In contrast, the signals that lag PDO by 7 years are consistent with a baroclinic mode, which represents the ocean's time-integrated response to the wind stress curl along a single latitude band between 24°N and 27°N.
    Description: M.A. was supported by the Postdoctoral Scholar Program at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with funding provided by the Ocean and Climate Change Institute. Further support was provided to M.A., Y.‐O.K., and J.Y. by NSF under grant OCE‐1028739.
    Keywords: Kuroshio ; Hydrography ; Altimetry ; Rossby waves ; Interannual variability ; PDO
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 7659–7677, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0007.1.
    Description: Maximum covariance analysis of a preindustrial control simulation of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), shows that a barotropic signal in winter broadly resembling a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) follows an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by about 7 yr. The delay is due to the cyclonic propagation along the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the subpolar gyre of a SST warming linked to a northward shift and intensification of the NAC, together with an increasing SST cooling linked to increasing southward advection of subpolar water along the western boundary and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream (GS). These changes result in a meridional SST dipole, which follows the AMOC intensification after 6 or 7 yr. The SST changes were initiated by the strengthening of the western subpolar gyre and by bottom torque at the crossover of the deep branches of the AMOC with the NAC on the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the GS near the Tail of the Grand Banks, respectively. The heat flux damping of the SST dipole shifts the region of maximum atmospheric transient eddy growth southward, leading to a negative NAO-like response. No significant atmospheric response is found to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), which is broadly realistic but shifted south and associated with a much weaker meridional SST gradient than the AMOC fingerprint. Nonetheless, the wintertime atmospheric response to the AMOC shows some similarity with the observed response to the AMO, suggesting that the ocean–atmosphere interactions are broadly realistic in CCSM4.
    Description: Support from the NOAA Climate Program Office (NA10OAR4310202 and NA13OAR4310139), NSF EaSM2 (OCE 1242989) and the European Community 7th framework programme (FP7 2007-2013) under Grant Agreement 308299 (NACLIM) is gratefully acknowledged. The analysis benefited from the IPSL Prodiguer-Ciclad facility, which is supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL funded by the ANR (Grant ANR-10-LABX-0018) and by the European FP7 IS-ENES2 project (Grant 312979).
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Meridional overturning circulation ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Climate models ; Climate variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Kwon, Y., Seo, H., Ummenhofer, C. C., & Joyce, T. M. Impact of multidecadal variability in Atlantic SST on winter atmospheric blocking. Journal of Climate, 33(3), (2020): 867-892, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0324.1.
    Description: Recent studies have suggested that coherent multidecadal variability exists between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). However, the role of AMV in modulating blocking variability on multidecadal times scales is not fully understood. This study examines this issue primarily using the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis for 1901–2010. The second mode of the empirical orthogonal function for winter (December–March) atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic exhibits oppositely signed anomalies of blocking frequency over Greenland and the Azores. Furthermore, its principal component time series shows a dominant multidecadal variability lagging AMV by several years. Composite analyses show that this lag is due to the slow evolution of the AMV sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which is likely driven by the ocean circulation. Following the warm phase of AMV, the warm SST anomalies emerge in the western subpolar gyre over 3–7 years. The ocean–atmosphere interaction over these 3–7-yr periods is characterized by the damping of the warm SST anomalies by the surface heat flux anomalies, which in turn reduce the overall meridional gradient of the air temperature and thus weaken the meridional transient eddy heat flux in the lower troposphere. The anomalous transient eddy forcing then shifts the eddy-driven jet equatorward, resulting in enhanced Rossby wave breaking and blocking on the northern flank of the jet over Greenland. The opposite is true with the AMV cold phases but with much shorter lags, as the evolution of SST anomalies differs in the warm and cold phases.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge support from the NSF Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program (AGS-1355339) to Y-OK, HS, CCU, and TMJ, the NASA Physical Oceanography Program (NNX13AM59G) to Y-OK, HS, and TMJ, NOAA CPO Climate Variability and Predictability Program (NA13OAR4310139) and DOE CESD Regional and Global Model Analysis Program (DE-SC0019492) to Y-OK, and NSF Physical Oceanography Program (OCE-1419235) to HS. We are very grateful to the three anonymous reviewers and editor Dr. Mingfang Ting, for their thorough and insightful suggestions. The NOAA 20CR dataset was downloaded from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Science Division webpage (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/). Support for the 20CR Project version 2c dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. The HadISST dataset was downloaded from the U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre webpage (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/). The ERA-20C dataset was downloaded from the ECMWF webpage (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/era20c-daily/). The ERSST5 dataset was provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Science Division (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html).
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Blocking ; Climate variability ; Multidecadal variability ; North Atlantic Oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2018): 1297-1314, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0286.1.
    Description: The variance of a jet’s position in latitude is found to be related to its average speed: when a jet becomes stronger, its variability in latitude decreases. This relationship is shown to hold for observed midlatitude jets around the world and also across a hierarchy of numerical models. North Atlantic jet variability is shown to be modulated on decadal time scales, with decades of a strong, steady jet being interspersed with decades of a weak, variable jet. These modulations are also related to variations in the basinwide occurrence of high-impact blocking events. A picture emerges of complex multidecadal jet variability in which recent decades do not appear unusual. An underlying barotropic mechanism is proposed to explain this behavior, related to the change in refractive properties of a jet as it strengthens, and the subsequent effect on the distribution of Rossby wave breaking.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from NERC and the Research Council of Norway project jetSTREAM under Grants NE/ L01047X/1 (IMPETUS) and 231716, respectively, for a contribution to the work presented here. EAB is supported in part by the NSF Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program under Grant 1545675. Y-OK was supported by the NSF Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics Program under Grant 1355339. KW was supported by the Joint UK BEIS/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101). RL was supported by the Met Office and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science.
    Description: 2018-07-29
    Keywords: Atmospheric circulation ; Jets ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Baroclinic models ; Decadal variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 32(8), (2019): 2185-2205. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0538.1.
    Description: Much attention has been paid to the climatic impacts of changes in the Kuroshio Extension, instead of the Kuroshio in the East China Sea (ECS). This study, however, reveals the prominent influences of the lateral shift of the Kuroshio at interannual time scale in late spring [April–June (AMJ)] on the sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation in summer around the ECS, based on high-resolution satellite observations and ERA-Interim. A persistent offshore displacement of the Kuroshio during AMJ can result in cold SST anomalies in the northern ECS and the Japan/East Sea until late summer, which correspondingly causes anomalous cooling of the lower troposphere. Consequently, the anomalous cold SST in the northern ECS acts as a key driver to robustly enhance the precipitation from the Yangtze River delta to Kyushu in early summer (May–August) and over the central ECS in late summer (July–September). In view of the moisture budget analysis, two different physical processes modulated by the lateral shift of the Kuroshio are identified to account for the distinct responses of precipitation in early and late summer, respectively. First, the anomalous cold SST in the northern ECS induced by the Kuroshio offshore shift is likely conducive to the earlier arrival of the mei-yu–baiu front at 30°–32°N and its subsequent slower northward movement, which may prolong the local rainy season, leading to the increased rain belt in early summer. Second, the persistent cold SST anomalies in late summer strengthen the near-surface baroclinicity and the associated strong atmospheric fronts embedded in the extratropical cyclones over the central ECS, which in turn enhances the local rainfall.
    Description: We appreciate three anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful and constructive comments. This work is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFA0601804), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) Projects (91858102, 41490643, 41490640, 41506009, U1606402) and the OUC–WHOI joint research program (21366).
    Description: 2019-10-01
    Keywords: Continental shelf/slope ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Boundary currents ; Precipitation ; Interannual variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 9679-9702, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0707.1.
    Description: The North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream (GS) path is examined using a large ensemble of high-resolution hemispheric-scale Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. The model is forced with a broad range of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies derived from a lag regression on a GS index. The primary result of the model experiments, supported in part by an independent analysis of a reanalysis dataset, is that the large-scale quasi-steady North Atlantic circulation response is remarkably nonlinear about the sign and amplitude of the SST anomaly chosen over a wide range of GS shift scenarios. The nonlinear response prevails over the weak linear response and resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the leading intrinsic mode of variability in the model and the observations. Further analysis of the associated dynamics reveals that the nonlinear responses are accompanied by the shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, which is reinforced, with nearly equal importance, by the high-frequency transient eddy feedback and the low-frequency wave-breaking events. Additional sensitivity simulations confirm that the nonlinearity of the circulation response is a robust feature found over the broad parameter space encompassing not only the varied SST but also the absence/presence of tropical influence, the varying lateral boundary conditions, and the initialization scheme. The result highlights the fundamental importance of the intrinsically nonlinear transient eddy dynamics and the eddy–mean flow interactions in generating the nonlinear downstream response to the meridional shifts in the Gulf Stream.
    Description: The authors are grateful for the support from NASA (NNX13AM59G) and the NSF (AGS-1355339, OCE-1419235).
    Description: 2018-05-07
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Blocking ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Regional models ; Climate variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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