ALBERT

Description: In response to our article, Why Hasnt Earth Warmed as Much as Expected? (2010), Knutti and Plattner (2012) wrote a rebuttal. The term climate sensitivity is usually defined as the change in global mean surface temperature that is produced by a specified change in forcing, such as a change in solar heating or greenhouse gas concentrations. We had argued in the 2010 paper that although climate models can reproduce the global mean surface temperature history over the past century, the uncertainties in these models, due primarily to the uncertainty in climate forcing by airborne particles, mean that the models lack the confidence to actually constrain the climate sensitivity within useful limits for climate prediction. Knutti and Plattner are climate modelers, and they argued essentially that because the models could reproduce the surface temperature history, the issue we raised was moot. Our response amounts to straightening out this confusion; for the models to be constraining, they must be able to reproduce the surface temperature history with sufficient confidence, not just to match the measurements, but to exclude alternative histories. As before, we concluded that if we can actually make the aerosol measurements using currently available, state-of-the-art techniques, we can determine the aerosol climate forcing to the degree required to constrain that aspect of model climate sensitivity. A technical issue relating to the timescale over which a change in CO2 emissions would be equilibrated in the environmental energy balance was also discussed, again, a matter of differences in terminology.

Description: We present an analysis of over 23,000 globally distributed wildfire smoke plume injection heights derived from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) space-based, multi-angle stereo imaging. Both pixel-weighted and aerosol optical depth (AOD)-weighted results are given, stratified by region, biome, and month or season. This offers an observational resource for assessing first-principle plume-rise modelling, and can provide some constraints on smoke dispersion modelling for climate and air quality applications. The main limitation is that the satellite is in a sun-synchronous orbit, crossing the equator at about 10:30 a.m. local time on the day side. Overall, plumes occur preferentially during the northern mid-latitude burning season, and the vast majority inject smoke near-surface. However, the heavily forested regions of North and South America, and Africa produce the most frequent elevated plumes and the highest AOD values; some smoke is injected to altitudes well above 2 km in nearly all regions and biomes. Planetary boundary layer (PBL) versus free troposphere injection is a critical factor affecting smoke dispersion and environmental impact, and is affected by both the smoke injection height and the PBL height; an example assessment is made here, but constraining the PBL height for this application warrants further work.

Description: Aerosol indirect effects have potentially large impacts on the Arctic Ocean surface energy budget, but model estimates of regional-scale aerosol indirect effects are highly uncertain and poorly validated by observations. Here we demonstrate a new way to quantitatively estimate aerosol indirect effects on a regional scale from remote sensing observations. In this study, we focus on nighttime, optically thin, predominantly liquid clouds. The method is based on differences in cloud physical and microphysical characteristics in carefully selected clean, average, and aerosol-impacted conditions. The cloud subset of focus covers just approximately 5 % of cloudy Arctic Ocean regions, warming the Arctic Ocean surface by approximately 1-1.4 W m(exp -2) regionally during polar night. However, within this cloud subset, aerosol and cloud conditions can be determined with high confidence using CALIPSO and CloudSat data and model output. This cloud subset is generally susceptible to aerosols, with a polar nighttime estimated maximum regionally integrated indirect cooling effect of approximately 0.11 W m(exp 2) at the Arctic sea ice surface (approximately 8 % of the clean background cloud effect), excluding cloud fraction changes. Aerosol presence is related to reduced precipitation, cloud thickness, and radar reflectivity, and in some cases, an increased likelihood of cloud presence in the liquid phase. These observations are inconsistent with a glaciation indirect effect and are consistent with either a deactivation effect or less-efficient secondary ice formation related to smaller liquid cloud droplets. However, this cloud subset shows large differences in surface and meteorological forcing in shallow and higher-altitude clouds and between sea ice and open-ocean regions. For example, optically thin, predominantly liquid clouds are much more likely to overlay another cloud over the open ocean, which may reduce aerosol indirect effects on the surface. Also, shallow clouds over open ocean do not appear to respond to aerosols as strongly as clouds over stratified sea ice environments, indicating a larger influence of meteorological forcing over aerosol microphysics in these types of clouds over the rapidly changing Arctic Ocean.