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  • Geosciences (General)  (5)
  • Meteorology and Climatology  (3)
  • 1
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    Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System (2012)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-19
    Beschreibung: A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office?s GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). The hindcasts are initialized every December from 1959 to 2010 following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from the atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) generated using the GEOS-5 atmospheric model. The forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble mean is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but forced with observed CO2. The results show that initialization acts to increase the forecast skill of Northern Atlantic SST compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index is predictable up to a 5-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the Northern Atlantic. While the skill measured by Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS) shows 50% improvement up to 10-year lead forecast over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, however, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre, due in part to the fact that the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region appears to be unrealistic. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.
    Schlagwort(e): Meteorology and Climatology
    Materialart: GSFC.ABS.6939.2012 , American Geophysical Union conference; Dec 03, 2012 - Dec 07, 2012; San Francisco, CA; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 2
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    GEOS S2S-2_1: The GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System (2018)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-20
    Beschreibung: A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was recently released by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution than the previous, (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, and now includes the assimilation of along-track sea surface height. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. Analysis of the ensemble spread shows improvements relative to the previous system, including generally better reliability. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only tradeoff is an increased "double ITCZ", which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.
    Schlagwort(e): Geosciences (General)
    Materialart: GSFC-E-DAA-TN64354 , American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting; Dec 10, 2018 - Dec 14, 2018; Washington, D.C.; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 3
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    NASA GMAO GEOS S2S Prediction System: Metrics, Post-Processing and Products (2018)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-13
    Beschreibung: In this presentation we present an overview of the GMAO Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction System, current users and products, and methods for validation and evaluation of the system. Methods for evaluation include baseline evaluations metrics, the ability to simulate key modes of variability, and evaluation of new development areas.
    Schlagwort(e): Geosciences (General)
    Materialart: GSFC-E-DAA-TN53381 , Metrics, Post-Processing, and Products for Subseasonal to Seasonal Workshop; Feb 28, 2018 - Mar 02, 2018; College Park, MD; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 4
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    GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System (2017)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-13
    Beschreibung: A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.
    Schlagwort(e): Geosciences (General)
    Materialart: GSFC-E-DAA-TN50557 , American Geophysical Union 2017 Fall Meeting; Dec 11, 2017 - Dec 15, 2017; New Orleans, LA; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 5
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    GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System (2017)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-13
    Beschreibung: Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9 month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems.
    Schlagwort(e): Meteorology and Climatology
    Materialart: GSFC-E-DAA-TN45265 , Climate Dynamics (ISSN 0930-7575) (e-ISSN 1432-0894); 1-27
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 6
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    Sea Ice Outlook for September 2017: June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (2017)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-12
    Beschreibung: The GMAO seasonal forecast is produced from coupled model integrations that are initialized every five days, with seven additional ensemble members generated by coupled model breeding and initialized on the date closest to the beginning of the month. The main components of the AOGCM are the GEOS-5 atmospheric model, the MOM4 ocean model, and CICE sea ice model. Forecast fields were re-gridded to the passive microwave grid for averaging.
    Schlagwort(e): Geosciences (General)
    Materialart: GSFC-E-DAA-TN43665
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 7
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    GEOS-5 System Developments for Decadal Climate Prediction at NASA/GMAO (2011)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-19
    Beschreibung: The GEOS-5 AOGCM is being used to conduct the CMIP5 decadal prediction suite. The model is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM coupled to MOM4 and CICE, with aerosol distributions from GOCART. The decadal predictions are initialized from the GEOS Ocean-Ice reanalysis that is coupled to MERRA, GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis. Perturbations are generated using a bred vector approach. The integrations are still underway. The system and preliminary results will be presented.
    Schlagwort(e): Meteorology and Climatology
    Materialart: GSFC.ABS.4478.2011 , Aspen Global Change Institute Workshop: Making Sense of the Multi-Model Decadal Prediction Experiments from CMIP5; Jun 26, 2011 - Jul 01, 2011; Aspen, CO; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 8
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    NASA GMAO S2S Prediction System Hindcast and Near-Real Time Operations Strategy (2018)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publikationsdatum: 2019-07-13
    Beschreibung: In this presentation we present an overview of the GMAO Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction System with a focus on the computing time and resources and actual time it takes to complete a full set of hindcasts. The goal is to come up with some solutions to allow us to run more ensemble members for the next version of the system which will be higher resolution and take many more resources.
    Schlagwort(e): Geosciences (General)
    Materialart: GSFC-E-DAA-TN53424 , Metrics, Post-Processing, and Products for Subseasonal to Seasonal Workshop; Feb 28, 2018 - Mar 02, 2018; College Park, MD; United States
    Format: application/pdf
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
    BibTip Andere fanden auch interessant ...
    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
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