ALBERT

Description: The last decade has witnessed a significant growth in our understanding of the past and continuing effects of ice sheets and glaciers on contemporary crustal deformation and seismicity. This growth has been driven largely by the emergence of postglacial rebound models (PGM) constrained by new field observations that incorporate increasingly realistic rheological, mechanical, and glacial parameters. In this paper, we highlight some of these recent field-based investigations and new PGMs, and examine their implications for understanding crustal deformation and seismicity during glaciation and following deglaciation. The emerging glacial rebound models outlined in the paper support the view that both tectonic stresses and glacial rebound stresses are needed to explain the distribution and style of contemporary earthquake activity in former glaciated shields of eastern Canada and Fennoscandia. However, many of these models neglect important parameters, such as topography, lateral variations in lithospheric strength and tectonic strain built up during glaciation. In glaciated mountainous terrains, glacial erosion may directly modulate tectonic deformation by resetting the orogenic topography and thereby providing an additional compensatory uplift mechanism. Such effects are likely to be important both in tectonically active orogens and in the mountainous regions of glaciated shields.

Description: Southern Alaska is a continent-scale region of ongoing crustal deformation within the Pacific-North American plate boundary zone. Glaciers and glacial erosion have dictated patterns of denudation in the orogen over the last approx. 5 My. The orogen comprises three discrete topographic domains from south to north, respectively: (1) the Chugach/St. Elias Range; (2) the Wrangell Mountains; and (3) the eastern Alaska Range. Although present deformation is distributed across the orogen, much of the shortening and uplift are concentrated in the Chugach/St. Elias Range. A systematic increase in topographic wavelength of the range from east to west reflects east-to-west increases in the width of a shallowly-dipping segment of the plate interface, separation of major upper plate structures, and a decrease in the obliquity of plate motion relative to the plate boundary. Mean elevation decays exponentially from approx. 2500 m to approx. 1100 m from east to west, respectively. Topographic control on the present and past distribution of glaciers is indicated by close correspondence along the range between mean elevation and the modern equilibrium line altitude of glaciers (ELA) and differences in the modern ELA, mean annual precipitation and temperature across the range between the windward, southern and leeward, northern flanks. Net, range- scale erosion is the sum of: (1) primary bedrock erosion by glaciers and (2) erosion in areas of the landscape that are ice-marginal and are deglaciated at glacial minima. Oscillations between glacial and interglacial climates controls ice height and distribution, which, in turn, modulates the locus and mode of erosion in the landscape. Mean topography and the mean position of the ELA are coupled because of the competition between rock uplift, which tends to raise the ELA, and enhanced orographic precipitation accompanying mountain building, which tends to lower the ELA. Mean topography is controlled both by the 60 deg latitude and maritime setting of active deformation and by the feedback between shortening and uplift, glacial erosion, and orographic effects on climate accompanying mountain building.

Description: The changes of the solid Earth in south central Alaska in response to two major glacial fluctuations on different temporal and spatial scales have been estimated and we evaluated their influence on the stress state and ongoing tectonic deformation of the region. During the recent (1993-1995) Bering Glacier surge, a large transfer of ice from the Bagley Ice Field to the Bering Glacier terminus region occurred. We estimated the elastic displacement of the solid Earth due to ice mass redistribution from Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements at sites near the surging glacier. We can account for these displacements by transfer of an ice volume of about 14 cubic km from the surge reservoir area to the terminus region. We examined the background seismicity (M(sub L) 〉 2.5) before, during, and after the surge. We found that the occurrence of small earthquakes (M(sub L) 〈 4.0) in the surge reservoir region increased during the surge time interval possibly in response to a decrease in ice mass. This suggests that a small decrease in the vertical stress, o,3, could be enough to modulate the occurrence of small, shallow earthquakes in this dominantly thrust fault setting. During this century the southern Alaska coastal glaciers have been undergoing an overall decrease in volume. Based on our compilation of changes in the extent and thickness of the coastal glaciers between the Malaspina and Bering, we calculated surface displacements due to the Earth's viscoelastic response to annual thinning and to the cumulative retreat over the last 100 years. The uplift of the region due to an average annual thinning rate of 1-6 m/yr in the ablation region is 1-12 mm/yr. For our reference model with a viscosity of 5 x 10(exp 19) Pa s for depths between approximately equal 40 and 200 km the total viscoelastic response due to the retreat over the last century may be as much as a couple of meters within the coastal ablation zone near Icy Bay. The maximum decrease in sigma(sub V) between 0 and 10 km was approximately equal 1.0 MPa, which is significant in relation to the stress drops in recent earthquakes (approximately 2 to 10 MPa) but small in relation to the estimated tectonic stress magnitude. Therefore the occurrence of an earthquake such as the St. Elias (1979, M(sub S) = 7.2) may have been advanced in time; however, most of the ongoing stress accumulation would be primarily due to tectonic forces.

Description: The Kodiak Islands are located approx.120 to 250 km from the Alaska-Aleutian Trench and are within the southern extent of the 1964 Prince William Sound (M(sub W) = 9.2) earthquake rupture and aftershock zone. Here we report new campaign GPS results (1993-2001) from northeastern Kodiak and reprocessed GPS results (1993-1997) from southwestern Kodiak. The rate and orientation of the horizontal velocities, relative to a fixed North America, range from 29.7 +/- 1.7 mm/yr at N30.3degW +/- 3.3deg, located approx.120 km from the deepest point of the trench, to 8.0 +/- 1.3 mm/yr at N62.4degW +/- 9.3deg, located approx.230 km from the trench. We evaluated alternate models of coseismic and interseismic slip to test the importance of the mechanisms that account for surface deformation rates. Near the Gulf of Alaska coastal region of Kodiak the horizontal velocity can be accounted for primarily by the viscoelastic response to plate motion and a locked main thrust zone (MTZ), down-dip creep, and to a lesser extent, slip in the 1964 earthquake. Further inland the dominant mechanisms that account for post-1964 uplift rates are time-dependent, down-dip creep and a locked MTZ; for the horizontal velocity component southwest translation of western Kodiak may be important as well. Based on the pre-1964 and post-1964 earthquake pattern of interseismic earthquakes, we suggest that between the occurrences of great earthquakes like the 1964 event, more moderate to large earthquakes occur in the southwestern Kodiak region than near northeastern Kodiak .

Description: The Kodiak Islands are located approximately 130 to 250 km from the Alaska-Aleutian Trench where the Pacific plate is underthrusting the North American plate at a rate of about 57 mm/yr. The southern extent of the 1964 Prince William Sound (${M-w}$ = 9.2) earthquake rupture occurred offshore and beneath the eastern portion of the Kodiak Islands. Here we report GPS results (1993-2001) from northern Kodiak Island that span the transition between the 1964 uplift region along the eastern coast and the region of coseismic subsidence further inland. The horizontal velocity vectors range from 22.9 $\pm$ 2.2 mm/yr at N26.3$\deg$W $\pm$ 2.5$\deg$, about 150 km from the trench, to 5.9 $\pm$ 1.3 mm/yr at N65.9$\deg$W $\pm$ 6.6$\deg$, about 190 km from the trench. Near the northeastern coast of Kodiak the velocity vector above the shallow, locked main thrust zone is between the orientation of PCFC-NOAM plate motion (N22$/deg$W) and the trench-normal (N3O$\deg$W). Further west, our geodetic results suggest the accumulation of shear strain that will be released eventually as left-lateral motion on upper plate faults such as the Kodiak Island fault. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the difference between the Pacific-North American plate motion and the orientation of the down going slab would lead to 4-8 mm/yr of left-lateral slip. Short-term geodetic uplift rates range from 2 - 14 mm/yr, with the maximum uplift located near the axis of maximum subsidence during the 1964 earthquake. We evaluated alternate interseismic models for Kodiak to test the importance of various mechanisms responsible for crustal deformation rates. These models are based on the plate interface slip history inferred from earlier modeling of coseismic and post-seismic geodetic results. The horizontal (trench perpendicular) and vertical deformation rates across Kodiak are consistent with a model that includes the viscoelastic response to : (1) a downgoing Pacific plate interface that is locked at shallow depths,(2) coseismic slip in the 1964 and (3) interseismic creep below the seismogenic zone. The change in orientation of the horizontal velocity vector occurs down-dip from the locked main thrust zone. In southern Kodiak, the coseismic slip in the 1964 earthquake was smaller than in the northern Kodiak region; yet, the horizontal, interseismic velocities as a function of distance from the trench are comparable to those in northern Kodiak. Based on the earthquake history prior to, and following the 1964 earthquake, we hypothesize that the plate interface in southern Kodiak slips in more frequent large earthquakes than in northern Kodiak.

Description: We quantify gravity changes after great earthquakes present within the 10 year long time series of monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity fields. Using spherical harmonic normal-mode formulation, the respective source parameters of moment tensor and double-couple were estimated. For the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, the gravity data indicate a composite moment of 1.2x10(exp 23)Nm with a dip of 10deg, in agreement with the estimate obtained at ultralong seismic periods. For the 2010 Maule earthquake, the GRACE solutions range from 2.0 to 2.7x10(exp 22)Nm for dips of 12deg-24deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, the estimated scalar moments range from 4.1 to 6.1x10(exp 22)Nm, with dips of 9deg-19deg and centroid depths within the lower crust. For the 2012 Indian Ocean strike-slip earthquakes, the gravity data delineate a composite moment of 1.9x10(exp 22)Nm regardless of the centroid depth, comparing favorably with the total moment of the main ruptures and aftershocks. The smallest event we successfully analyzed with GRACE was the 2007 Bengkulu earthquake with M(sub 0) approx. 5.0x10(exp 21)Nm. We found that the gravity data constrain the focal mechanism with the centroid only within the upper and lower crustal layers for thrust events. Deeper sources (i.e., in the upper mantle) could not reproduce the gravity observation as the larger rigidity and bulk modulus at mantle depths inhibit the interior from changing its volume, thus reducing the negative gravity component. Focal mechanisms and seismic moments obtained in this study represent the behavior of the sources on temporal and spatial scales exceeding the seismic and geodetic spectrum.

Description: Scientists have been making summer-time geodetic measurements in south central Alaska for decades to estimate the rate at which a continental-ocean terrane is accreting to the North American continent. Southern Alaska has big earthquakes every century and large, rapidly changing glaciers. In the last decade, primarily as part of the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory project, continuous GPS measurements have recorded the response of sites such as the near-coastal geodetic site, AB35 to competing processes: uplift and movement to the northwest due to tectonic forces and the response of the solid Earth to seasonal and longer-term changes in the cryosphere (snow and ice) surrounding the site. Which process causes the largest displacements of the site? Figure 1 (Blewitt, Nevada Geodetic Lab, 2015) shows the Northward, Eastward, and Upward motion of AB35 between 2007 and 2015. The site is moving rapidly to the north and west reflecting the tectonic convergence of site toward interior Alaska but there is small wiggle on the North component reflecting seasonal displacements of the site associated with snow loading and unloading. However, the Up component, shows a large seasonal signal due to snow loading in the winter (down) and ice and snow melting in the warmer months (site goes up). Between 2007 and the present, the site position is slowly moving upward, due to tectonic forcing but probably associated with longer- term ice melting as well. We are using the CIG finite element modeling (FEM) program Pylith to estimate the surface displacements and stresses associated with seasonal loading changes (top figure and Figure 2 far right) for water year 2012, 2011.8 - 2012.8) and the longer-term retreat of the surrounding glaciers.

Description: The 2011 great Tohoku-Oki earthquake, apart from shaking the ground, perturbed the motions of satellites orbiting some hundreds km away above the ground, such as GRACE, due to coseismic change in the gravity field. Significant changes in inter-satellite distance were observed after the earthquake. These unconventional satellite measurements were inverted to examine the earthquake source processes from a radically different perspective that complements the analyses of seismic and geodetic ground recordings. We found the average slip located up-dip of the hypocenter but within the lower crust, as characterized by a limited range of bulk and shear moduli. The GRACE data constrained a group of earthquake source parameters that yield increasing dip (7-16 degrees plus or minus 2 degrees) and, simultaneously, decreasing moment magnitude (9.17-9.02 plus or minus 0.04) with increasing source depth (15-24 kilometers). The GRACE solution includes the cumulative moment released over a month and demonstrates a unique view of the long-wavelength gravimetric response to all mass redistribution processes associated with the dynamic rupture and short-term postseismic mechanisms to improve our understanding of the physics of megathrusts.

Description: The northwest directed motion of the Pacific plate is accompanied by migration and collision of the Yakutat terrane into the cusp of southern Alaska. The nature and magnitude of accretion and translation on upper crustal faults and folds is poorly constrained, however, due to pervasive glaciation. In this study we used high-resolution topography, geodetic imaging, seismic, and geologic data to advance understanding of the transition from strike-slip motion on the Fairweather fault to plate margin deformation on the Bagley fault, which cuts through the upper plate of the collisional suture above the subduction megathrust. The Fairweather fault terminates by oblique-extensional splay faulting within a structural syntaxis, allowing rapid tectonic upwelling of rocks driven by thrust faulting and crustal contraction. Plate motion is partly transferred from the Fairweather to the Bagley fault, which extends 125 km farther west as a dextral shear zone that is partly reactivated by reverse faulting. The Bagley fault dips steeply through the upper plate to intersect the subduction megathrust at depth, forming a narrow fault-bounded crustal sliver in the obliquely convergent plate margin. Since . 20 Ma the Bagley fault has accommodated more than 50 km of dextral shearing and several kilometers of reverse motion along its southern flank during terrane accretion. The fault is considered capable of generating earthquakes because it is linked to faults that generated large historic earthquakes, suitably oriented for reactivation in the contemporary stress field, and locally marked by seismicity. The fault may generate earthquakes of Mw 〈= 7.5.

Description: We have used GPS at 10 stations in southern Alaska with three epochs of measurements to estimate short-term uplift rates. A number of great earthquakes as well as recent large earthquakes characterize the seismicity of the region this century. To reliably estimate uplift rates from GPS data, numerical models that included both the slip distribution in recent large earthquakes and the general slab geometry were constructed.