ALBERT

Description: Rocket data have been used to evaluate the characteristics of precipitating relativistic electrons and their effects on the electrodynamic structure of the middle atmosphere. These data were obtained at Poker Flat, Alaska, on May 13 and 14, 1990, during a midday, highly relativistic electron (HRE) precipitation event. Solid state detectors were used to measure the electron fluxes and their energy spectra. An X ray scintillator was included on each flight to measure bremsstrahlung X rays produced by energetic electrons impacting on the upper atmosphere. However, these were found the be of negligible importance for this particular event. The energy deposition by the electrons has been determined from the flux measurements and compared with in situ measurements of the atmospheric electrical response. The electrodynamic measurements were obtained by the same rockets and additionally on May 13, with an accompanying rocket. The impact flux was highly irregular, containing short-lived bursts of relativistic electrons, mainly with energies below 0.5 MeV and with fluxes most enhanced between pitch angles of 0 deg - 20 deg. Although the geostationary counterpart of this measured event was considered to be of relatively low intensity and hardness, energy deposition peaked near 75 km with fluxes approaching an ion pair production rate in excess of 100/cu cm s. This exceeds peak fluxes in relativistic electron precipitation (REP) events as observed by us in numerous rocket soundings since 1976. Conductivity measurements from a blunt probe showed that negative electrical conductivities exceeded positive conductivities down to 50 km or lower, consistent with steady ionization by precipitating electrons above 1 MeV. These findings imply that the electrons from the outer radiation zone can modulate the electrical properties of the middle atmosphere to altitudes below 50 km. During the decline and activity minimum of the current solar cycle, we anticipate the occurence of similar events but with fluxes 1-2 orders of magnitude above that reported here, based on studies of earlier solar cycles (e.g., Baker et al., 1993).

Description: In late July and early August of 1991, a major suborbital scientific campaign (NLC-91) involving scientists from eight countries was conducted as ESRANGE, Kiruna, Sweden and at Heiss Island, Russia. The purpose of the program was to investigate the chemical, dynamical, and electrodynamical properties of the polar summer mesosphere. Thirty one rocket flights were coordinated with two coherent radar facilities, EISCAT and CUPRI, and with other ground-based observatories and facilities. This permitted direct comparison between the in situ measurements and those obtained by remote sensing of the mesosphere via continuous ground-based monitoring. The primary objectives of the campaign were to study noctilucent clouds (NLCs) and polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSEs), including their possible relationship to local aerosols and/or small scale turbulence. This overview describes the scientific program, discusses the geophysical conditions during launch activities, and reviews some of the preliminary results. More detailed results can be found in the papers which follow.

Description: In late July and early August of 1991, a major suborbital scientific campaign (NLC-91) involving scientists from eight countries was conducted at ESRANGE, Kiruna, Sweden and at Heiss Island, Russia. The purpose of the program was to investigate the chemical, dynamical, and electrodynamical properties of the polar summer mesosphere. Thirty one rocket flights were coordinated with two coherent radar facilities, European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) and Cornell Univesity Portable Radar Interferometer (CUPRI), and with other ground-based observatories and facilities. This permitted direct comparison between the in situ measurements and those obtained by remote sensing of the mesosphere via continuous ground-based monitoring. The primary objectives of the campaign were to study noctilucent clouds (NLCs) and polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSEs), including their possible relationship to local aerosols and/or small scale turbulence. This overview describes the scientific program, discusses the geophysical conditions during launch activities, and reviews some of the preliminary results. More detailed results can be found in the papers which follow.

Description: The nature of the wave interactions, particularly those induced by transient solar and geomagnetic phenomena is discussed. Solar activity which includes modulations of galactic cosmic ray flux reaching Earth is discussed. Coupling processes involving charged particles and atmospheric electric structure are presented.

Description: Operation Aurorozone was a highly coordinated sequence of 33 rocket flights launched from Poker Flat, Alaska, in September 1976. The effects of aurorally produced X-rays on stratospheric neutral and electrical parameters was studied. The sun/weather coupling between upper and lower regions of the atmosphere is thought to be related to these middle atmospheric parameters. The results show a consistent depletion of ozone above 1 mb during three independent auroral events, with magnitudes in excess of those expected from the measured energy radiation sources. Simultaneously, enhanced conductivity changes were observed to occur in accord with the measured ionizing radiations.

Description: Physical mechanisms for coupling the energetics of solar activity to meteorological responses are reviewed. Although several hypotheses have been advanced, none can be said to be sufficiently complete to be applied to weather or climate prediction. Solar activity indicators potentially useful for forecasting are identified, including sunspots, solar flares, and magnetic sector boundary crossings. Additional experiments, studies, and analyses are required before Sun-weather concepts can be utilized for predicting meteorological responses.

Description: Solar variability influences upon terrestrial weather and climate are addressed. Both the positive and negative findings are included and specific predictions, areas of further study, and recommendations listed.

Description: Novel features are presented of precipitating relativistic electron fluxes measured on a spinning sounding rocket payload at midday between altitudes of 70 and 130 km in the auroral region. The sounding rocket was launched during a relativistic electron enhancement event of modest intensity. Electron fluxes were measured for a total of about 210 seconds at energies from 0.1 to 3.8 MeV, while pitch angle was sampled from 0 to 90 deg every spin cycle. Electrons with energies below about 0.2 MeV showed isotropic pitch angle distributions during most of the first 90 sec of data, while at higher energies the electrons had the highest fluxes near the mirroring angle (90 deg); when they occurred, the noted downward bursts were seen at all energies. The low-altitude fluxes are compared with those measured at geostationary orbit, and it is found that the low-altitude fluxes are much higher than expected from a simple mapping of a pancake distribution at high altitudes.

Description: The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

Description: Histograms and contour maps describing the daily rainfall characteristics of a northwestern Peru area most severely affected by the 1982-1983 El Nino event were prepared from daily rainfall data obtained from 66 stations in this area during the El Nino event, and during the same 8-month intervals for the two years preceding and following the event. These data were analyzed, in conjunction with the anlysis of visible and IR satellite images, for cloud characteristics and structure. The results present a comparison of the rainfall characteristics as a function of elevation, geographic location, and the time of year for the El Nino and non-El Nino periods.