ISSN:
1573-1596
Keywords:
carbon dioxide
;
climate change
;
Climate Convention
;
impact indicators
;
crop production
;
natural vegetation
;
sea level rise
;
stabilization of greenhouse gases
;
greenhouse gas emissions
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
,
Geography
Notes:
Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilizaton scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027389.02277.7d
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