ALBERT

Description: Analyses of satellite, ground-based, and balloon measurements allow updated estimates of trends in the vertical profile of ozone since 1979. The results show overall consistency among several independent measurement systems, particularly for northern hemisphere midlatitudes where most balloon and ground-based measurements are made. Combined trend estimates over these latitudes for the period 1979-96 show statistically significant negative trends at ail attitudes between 10 and 45 km, with two local extremes: -7.4 +/- 2.0% per decade at 40 km and -7.3 +/- 4.6% per decade at 15 km attitude. There is a strong seasonal variation in trends over northern midlatitudes in the altitude range of 10 to 18 km, with the largest ozone loss during winter and spring. The profile trends are in quantitative agreement with independently measured trends in column ozone, the amount of ozone in a column above the surface. The vertical profiles of ozone trends provide a fingerprint for the mechanisms of ozone depletion over the last two decades.

Description: Recent reanalyses of satellite, ground-based and balloon measurements allow updated estimates of trends in the vertical profile of ozone during 1980-96. The results show overall consistency between several independent measurement systems, particularly for northern hemisphere mid-latitudes where most ground-based measurements are made. Combined trend estimates over these latitudes show statistically significant negative trends at all altitudes between 10 and 45 km, with two local maxima: -7.4 +/- 2.0%/decade at 40 km and -7.6 +/- 4.6%/decade at 15 km altitude. There is a strong seasonal variation in trends over northern mid-latitudes in the altitude range of 10- 18 km. The profile trends are in quantitative agreement with independently measured trends in column ozone.

Description: Analyses of satellite, ground-based, and balloon measurements allow updated estimates of trends in the vertical profile of ozone since 1979. The results show overall consistency among several independent measurement systems, particularly for northern hemisphere midlatitudes where most balloon and ground-based measurements are made. Combined trend estimates over these latitudes for the period 1979-96 show statistically significant negative trends at all altitudes between 10 and 45 km, with two local extremes: -7.4 plus or minus 2.0% per decade at 40 km and -7.3 plus or minus -4.6% per decade at 15 km altitude. There is a strong seasonal variation in trends over northern midlatitudes in the attitude range of 10 to 18 km, with the largest ozone loss during winter and spring. The profile trends are in quantitative agreement with independently measured trends in column ozone, the amount of ozone in a column above the surface. The vertical profiles of ozone trends provide a fingerprint for the mechanisms of ozone depletion over the last two decades.

Description: The SAGE-II V6.1 ozone retrievals are shown to be of better precision at all levels and to be much more accurate than previous retrievals in the lower stratosphere below 20 km altitude. A filtering procedure for removing anomalous ozone profiles associated with volcanic aerosol/cloud effects and other identified artifacts in V6.1 ozone is described. The agreement between SAGE and ozonesondes in the mean is shown to be approximately 10% down to the tropopause. Relative to the sondes SAGE tends to slightly overestimate ozone (less than 5%) between 15 and 20 km altitude, and systematically underestimates ozone in the troposphere by approximately 30% in the regions between 8 km altitude and 2 km below the tropopause. The precisions (random errors) of SAGE ozone retrievals above 25 km altitude are estimated to be 4% or better; they are a factor of ten worse below 16 km altitude. Linear trends in the differences between coincident SAGE and ozonesondes measurement are generally less than 0.3 %/year and not significantly different from zero in 95% confidence intervals. Compared to V5.96 retrievals, ozone trend differences between 20 and 50 km altitude are approximately 0. 1 %/year, below 20 km altitude the SAGE II trends are more positive by approximately 0.2 %/year. For the 1984-1999 period the SAGE-II shows a localized ozone loss of -0.4(+/- 0.25) %/year (2gigma) in the tropics at 20 km altitude. In the lower stratosphere between 16 and 22 km altitudes, the SAGE shows significant ozone losses in the mid-latitudes in both Hemispheres during the 1979-1999 periods. The ozone trends range from -0.24(+/- 0.18) to -0.77(+/- 0.46) (2sigma)%/year. However in the 1984-1999 period, the downward trends are smaller (-0.07 to - 0.25 %/year) in this altitude range, and the trends in the integrated column from 12 to 17 km altitude in mid-latitudes (35 deg - 60 deg) are not significantly different from zero (0.1 +?- 0.6 (2sigma)%/year). Averaged over the tropics (20 deg S to 20 deg N) the ozone column above 15 km altitude exhibit a trend of -0.12 +/- 0.08 (2sigma)%/year.

Description: Analyses of satellite, ground-based, and balloon measurements allow updated estimates of trends in the vertical profile of ozone since 1979. The results show overall consistency among several independent measurement systems, particularly for northern hemisphere midlatitudes where most balloon and ground-based measurements are made. Combined trend estimates over these latitudes for the period 1979-96 show statistically significant negative trends at all attitudes between 10 and 45 km, with two local extremes: -7.4 +/- 2.0% per decade at 40 km and -7.3 +/- 4.6% per decade at 15 km attitude. There is a strong seasonal variation in trends over northern midlatitudes in the attitude range of 10 to 18 km. with the largest ozone loss during winter and spring. The profile trends are in quantitative agreement with independently measured trends in column ozone, the amount of ozone in a column above the surface. The vertical profiles of ozone trends provide a fingerprint for the mechanisms of ozone depletion over the last two decades,

Description: Analyses from SAGE I/II version 6.0 data exhibit upper stratospheric ozone trends which are not significantly different from those in version 5.96 data. Trend calculations show larger downward trends at mid-high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in 1980s. There are also indications of decreasing downward trends with time from 1979 to 1999. We have used a chemical box model and the UARS measurements of long lived gases, CH4, H2O, NO(x), and temperature to show that, with a constant Cl(sub y) trend, a hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry of 1%/decade at 45 deg. around 43 km is expected due to the hemispheric differences of temperature and CH4 during late winter/early. Also ozone trends should have been approximately 1%/decade more negative from 1979-1989 than from 1989-1999 because of the chemical feedbacks. The model results further indicate that both the reported decrease in CH4 and the increase in H2O in HALOE measurements will result in a larger downward ozone trend and a decrease in the hemispheric ozone trend asymmetry.

Description: Extensive analyses of ozone observations between 1978 and 1998 measured by Dobson Umkehr, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) I and II, and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) and (SBUV)/2 indicate continued significant ozone decline throughout the extratropical upper stratosphere from 30-45 km altitude. The maximum annual linear decline of -0.8 +/- 0.2 %/yr(2sigma) occurs at 40 km and is well described in terms of a linear decline modulated by the 11-year solar variation. The minimum decline of -0.110.1% yr-1(2o) occurs at 25 km in midlatitudes, with remarkable symmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at 40 km altitude. Midlatitude upper-stratospheric zonal trends exhibit significant seasonal variation (+/- 30% in the Northern Hemisphere, +/- 40% in the Southern Hemisphere) with the most negative trends of -1.2%/yr occurring in the winter. Significant seasonal trends of -0.7 to -0.9%/yr occur at 40 km in the tropics between April and September. Subjecting the statistical models used to calculate the ozone trends to intercomparison tests on a variety of common data sets yields results that indicate the standard deviation between trends estimated by 10 different statistical models is less than 0.1%/yr in the annual-mean trend for SAGE data and less than 0.2%/yr in the most demanding conditions (seasons with irregular, sparse data) [World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1998]. These consistent trend results between statistical models together with extensive consistency between the independent measurement-system trend observations by Dobson Umkehr, SAGE I and II, and SBUV and SBUV/2 provide a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of the declining ozone amounts reported here. Additional details of ozone trend results from 1978 to 1996 (2 years shorter than reported here) along with lower-stratospheric and tropospheric ozone trends, extensive intercomparisons to assess relative instrument drifts, and retrieval algorithm details are given by WMO [1998].

Description: Multiple satellite and ground-based observations provide consistent evidence that the thickness of Earth's protective ozone layer has stopped declining since 1997, close to the time of peak stratospheric halogen loading. Regression analyses with Effective Equivalent Stratospheric Chlorine (EESC) in conjunction with further analyses using more sophisticated photochemical model calculations constrained by satellite data demonstrate that the cessation of ozone depletion between 18-25 km altitude is consistent with a leveling off of stratospheric abundances of chlorine and bromine, due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. However, ozone increases in the lowest part of the stratosphere, from the tropopause to 18 km, account for about half of the improvement in total column ozone during the past 9 years at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. The increase in ozone for altitudes below 18 km is most likely driven by changes in transport, rather than driven by declining chlorine and bromine. Even with this evidence that the Montreal Protocol and its amendments are having the desired, positive effect on ozone above 18 km, total column ozone is recovering faster than expected due to the apparent transport driven changes at lower altitudes. Accurate prediction of future levels of stratospheric ozone will require comprehensive understanding of the factors that drive temporal changes at various altitudes, and partitioning of the recent transport-driven increases between natural variability and changes in atmospheric structure perhaps related to anthropogenic climate change.

Description: Publications from 1999-2002 describing research funded by the SAGE II contract to Dr. Cunnold and Dr. Wang are listed below. Our most recent accomplishments include a detailed analysis of the quality of SAGE II, v6.1, ozone measurements below 20 km altitude (Wang et al., 2002 and Kar et al., 2002) and an analysis of the consistency between SAGE upper stratospheric ozone trends and model predictions with emphasis on hemispheric asymmetry (Li et al., 2001). Abstracts of the 11 papers are attached.

Description: To provide observational evidence on the extratropical cross-tropopause transport between the stratosphere and the troposphere via quasi-isentropic processes in the middleworld (the part of the atmosphere in which the isentropic surfaces intersect the tropopause), this report presents an analysis of the seasonal variations of the ozone latitudinal distribution in the isentropic layer between 330 K and 380 K based on the measurements from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II. The results from SAGE II data analysis are consistent with (1) the buildup of ozone-rich air in the extratropical middleworld through the large-scale descending mass circulation during winter, (2) the spread of ozone-rich air in the isentropic layer from midlatitudes to subtropics via quasi-isentropic transport during spring, (3) significant photochemical ozone removal and the absence of an ozone-rich supply of air to the layer during summer, and (4) air mass exchange between the subtropics and the extratropics during the summer monsoon period. Thus the SAGE II observed ozone seasonal variations in the middleworld are consistent with the existing model calculated annual cycle of the diabatic circulation as well as the conceptual role of the eddy quasi-adiabatic transport in the stratosphere-troposphere exchange reported in the literature.