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  • 1
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    Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States (2016)
    In:  Other Sources
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. In addition, the increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing; Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN31554 , Journal of Hydrometeorology (ISSN 1525-755X) (e-ISSN 1525-7541); 17; 2; 693-711
    Format: text
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 2
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    The Peak Structure and Future Changes of the Relationships Between Extreme Precipitation and Temperature (2017)
    In:  Other Sources
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Theoretical models predict that, in the absence of moisture limitation, extreme precipitation intensity could exponentially increase with temperatures at a rate determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relationship. Climate models project a continuous increase of precipitation extremes for the twenty-first century over most of the globe. However, some station observations suggest a negative scaling of extreme precipitation with very high temperatures, raising doubts about future increase of precipitation extremes. Here we show for the present-day climate over most of the globe,the curve relating daily precipitation extremes with local temperatures has a peak structure, increasing as expected at the low medium range of temperature variations but decreasing at high temperatures. However, this peak-shaped relationship does not imply a potential upper limit for future precipitation extremes. Climate models project both the peak of extreme precipitation and the temperature at which it peaks (T(sub peak)) will increase with warming; the two increases generally conform to the C-C scaling rate in mid- and high-latitudes,and to a super C-C scaling in most of the tropics. Because projected increases of local mean temperature (T(sub mean)) far exceed projected increases of T(sub peak) over land, the conventional approach of relating extreme precipitation to T(sub mean) produces a misleading sub-C-C scaling rate.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing; Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN39945 , NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE (ISSN 1758-678X) (e-ISSN 1758-6798); 7; 4; 268-274
    Format: text
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  • 3
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    Confronting Weather and Climate Models with Observational Data from Soil Moisture Networks over the United States (2016)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those we find that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely due to differences in instrumentation, calibration and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory) and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses out perform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing; Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN41038 , Journal of Hydrometeorology (ISSN 1525-755X) (e-ISSN 1525-7541); 17; 4; 1049-1067
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 4
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    Online Visualization and Value Added Services of MERRA-2 Data at GES DISC (2017)
    In:  CASI
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: NASA climate reanalysis datasets from MERRA-2, distributed at the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC), have been used in broad research areas, such as climate variations, extreme weather, agriculture, renewable energy, and air quality, etc. The datasets contain numerous variables for atmosphere, land, and ocean, grouped into 95 products. The total archived volume is approximately 337 TB ( approximately 562K files) at the end of October 2017. Due to the large number of products and files, and large data volumes, it may be a challenge for a user to find and download the data of interest. The support team at GES DISC, working closely with the MERRA-2 science team, has created and is continuing to work on value added data services to best meet the needs of a broad user community. This presentation, using aerosol over Asia Monsoon as an example, provides an overview of the MERRA-2 data services at GES DISC, including: How to find the data? How many data access methods are provided? What are the best data access methods for me? How do download the subsetted (parameter, spatial, temporal) data and save in preferred spatial resolution and data format? How to visualize and explore the data online? In addition, we introduce a future online analytic tool designed for supporting application research, focusing on long-term hourly time-series data access and analysis.
    Keywords: Earth Resources and Remote Sensing; Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: GSFC-E-DAA-TN49000 , International Conference on Reanalysis (ICR5); Nov 13, 2017 - Nov 17, 2017; Rome; Italy
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  • 5
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    The observed state of the energy budget in the early twenty-first century (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 8319-8346, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00556.1.
    Description: New objectively balanced observation-based reconstructions of global and continental energy budgets and their seasonal variability are presented that span the golden decade of Earth-observing satellites at the start of the twenty-first century. In the absence of balance constraints, various combinations of modern flux datasets reveal that current estimates of net radiation into Earth’s surface exceed corresponding turbulent heat fluxes by 13–24 W m−2. The largest imbalances occur over oceanic regions where the component algorithms operate independent of closure constraints. Recent uncertainty assessments suggest that these imbalances fall within anticipated error bounds for each dataset, but the systematic nature of required adjustments across different regions confirm the existence of biases in the component fluxes. To reintroduce energy and water cycle closure information lost in the development of independent flux datasets, a variational method is introduced that explicitly accounts for the relative accuracies in all component fluxes. Applying the technique to a 10-yr record of satellite observations yields new energy budget estimates that simultaneously satisfy all energy and water cycle balance constraints. Globally, 180 W m−2 of atmospheric longwave cooling is balanced by 74 W m−2 of shortwave absorption and 106 W m−2 of latent and sensible heat release. At the surface, 106 W m−2 of downwelling radiation is balanced by turbulent heat transfer to within a residual heat flux into the oceans of 0.45 W m−2, consistent with recent observations of changes in ocean heat content. Annual mean energy budgets and their seasonal cycles for each of seven continents and nine ocean basins are also presented.
    Description: This study is the result of a collaboration of multiple investigators each supported by the NEWS program.
    Keywords: Climatology ; Energy budget/balance ; Heat budgets/fluxes ; Radiative fluxes ; Surface fluxes ; Satellite observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
    Format: application/pdf
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    PAPER (OA)
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