ALBERT

Description: A study of the relationship between total ozone and tropopause pressure was carried out using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and National Meteorological Center (NMC) global analyses. The medium scales generally show correlations greater than 0.6 throughout the middle latitudes of both hemispheres with some regions exceeding 0.8. The areas of highest correlations seem to be associated with the storm track regions of both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. A detailed spectral analysis is performed for the medium scales on five pairs of time series of area averaged tropopause pressure and total ozone. In middle latitudes, total ozone and tropopause pressure exhibit generally similar distributions in the power spectrum. In the subtropics and tropics the power in ozone drops off more rapidly with increasing frequency than the power in tropopause pressure. Only in the Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes does one find a clear association between increased power in ozone and tropopause pressure and maxima in the coherency spectrum. Results for large scales are more complicated, showing generally positive correlations at middle latitudes.

Description: Numerous studies suggest that local feedback of surface evaporation on precipitation, or recycling, is a significant source of water for precipitation. Quantitative results on the exact amount of recycling have been difficult to obtain in view of the inherent limitations of diagnostic recycling calculations. The current study describes a calculation of the amount of local and remote geographic sources of surface evaporation for precipitation, based on the implementation of three-dimensional constituent tracers of regional water vapor sources (termed water vapor tracers, WVT) in a general circulation model. The major limitation on the accuracy of the recycling estimates is the veracity of the numerically simulated hydrological cycle, though we note that this approach can also be implemented within the context of a data assimilation system. In the WVT approach, each tracer is associated with an evaporative source region for a prognostic three-dimensional variable that represents a partial amount of the total atmospheric water vapor. The physical processes that act on a WVT are determined in proportion to those that act on the model's prognostic water vapor. In this way, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation can be predicted within the model simulation, and can be validated against the model's prognostic water vapor. As a demonstration of the method, the regional hydrologic cycles for North America and India are evaluated for six summers (June, July and August) of model simulation. More than 50% of the precipitation in the Midwestern United States came from continental regional sources, and the local source was the largest of the regional tracers (14%). The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic regions contributed 18% of the water for Midwestern precipitation, but further analysis suggests that the greater region of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significantly. In most North American continental regions, the local source of precipitation is correlated with total precipitation. There is a general positive correlation between local evaporation and local precipitation, but it can be weaker because large evaporation can occur when precipitation is inhibited. In India, the local source of precipitation is a small percentage of the precipitation owing to the dominance of the atmospheric transport of oceanic water. The southern Indian Ocean provides a key source of water for both the Indian continent and the Sahelian region.

Description: This study examines the predictability of seasonal means during boreal summer. The results are based on ensembles of June-July-August (JJA) simulations (started in mid May) carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTS) and sea ice for the years 1980-1999. We find that the predictability of the JJA extra-tropical height field is primarily in the zonal mean component of the response to the SST anomalies. This contrasts with the cold season (January-February-March) when the predictability of seasonal means in the boreal extratropics is primarily in the wave component of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. Two patterns dominate the interannual variability of the ensemble mean JJA zonal mean height field. One has maximum variance in the tropical/subtropical upper troposphere, while the other has substantial variance in middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Both are symmetric with respect to the equator. A regression analysis suggests that the tropical/subtropical pattern is associated with SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, while the middle latitude pattern is forced by SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific just east of the dateline. The two leading zonal height patterns are reproduced in model runs forced with the two leading JJA SST patterns of variability. A comparison with observations shows a signature of the middle latitude pattern that is consistent with the occurrence of dry and wet summers over the United States. We hypothesize that both patterns, while imposing only weak constraints on extratropical warm season continental-scale climates, may play a role in the predilection for drought or pluvial conditions.

Description: Numerous studies suggest that local feedback of evaporation on precipitation, or recycling, is a significant source of water for precipitation. Quantitative results on the exact amount of recycling have been difficult to obtain in view of the inherent limitations of diagnostic recycling calculations. The current study describes a calculation of the amount of local and remote sources of water for precipitation, based on the implementation of passive constituent tracers of water vapor (termed water vapor tracers, WVT) in a general circulation model. In this case, the major limitation on the accuracy of the recycling estimates is the veracity of the numerically simulated hydrological cycle, though we note that this approach can also be implemented within the context of a data assimilation system. In this approach, each WVT is associated with an evaporative source region, and tracks the water until it precipitates from the atmosphere. By assuming that the regional water is well mixed with water from other sources, the physical processes that act on the WVT are determined in proportion to those that act on the model's prognostic water vapor. In this way, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation can be computed within the model simulation, and can be validated against the model's prognostic water vapor. Furthermore, estimates of precipitation recycling can be compared with bulk diagnostic approaches. As a demonstration of the method, the regional hydrologic cycles for North America and India are evaluated for six summers (June, July and August) of model simulation. More than 50% of the precipitation in the Midwestern United States came from continental regional tracers, and the local source was the largest of the regional tracers (14%). The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic 2 regions contributed 18% of the water for Midwestern precipitation, but further analysis suggests that the greater region of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significantly. In general, most North American land regions showed a positive correlation between evaporation and recycling ratio (except the Southeast United States) and negative correlations of recycling ratio with precipitation and moisture transport (except the Southwestern United States). The Midwestern local source is positively correlated with local evaporation, but it is not correlated with water vapor transport. This is contrary to bulk diagnostic estimates of precipitation recycling. In India, the local source of precipitation is a small percentage of the precipitation owing to the dominance of the atmospheric transport of oceanic water. The southern Indian Ocean provides a key source of water for both the Indian continent and the Sahelian region.

Description: The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center has produced a multiyear global assimilated data set with version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS). One of the main goals of this project, in addition to benchmarking the GEOS-1 system, was to produce a research quality data set suitable for the study of short-term climate variability. The output, which is global and gridded, includes all prognostic fields and a large number of diagnostic quantities such as precipitation, latent heating, and surface fluxes. Output is provided four times daily with selected quantities available eight times per day. Information about the observations input to the GEOS-1 DAS is provided in terms of maps of spatial coverage, bar graphs of data counts, and tables of all time periods with significant data gaps. The purpose of this document is to serve as a users' guide to NASA's first multiyear assimilated data set and to provide an early look at the quality of the output. Documentation is provided on all the data archives, including sample read programs and methods of data access. Extensive comparisons are made with the corresponding operational European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses, as well as various in situ and satellite observations. This document is also intended to alert users of the data about potential limitations of assimilated data, in general, and the GEOS-1 data, in particular. Results are presented for the period March 1985-February 1990.

Description: Understanding of the local and remote sources of water vapor can be a valuable diagnostic in understanding the regional atmospheric hydrologic cycle. In the present study, we have implemented passive tracers as prognostic variables to follow water vapor evaporated in predetermined regions until the water tracer precipitates. The formulation of the sources and sinks of tracer water is generally proportional to the prognostic water vapor variable. Because all water has been accounted for in tracers, the water vapor variable provides the validation of the tracer water and the formulation of the sources and sinks. The tracers have been implemented in a GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation consisting of several summer periods to determine the source regions of precipitation for the United States and India. The recycling of water and interannual variability of the sources of water will be examined. Potential uses in GCM sensitivity studies, predictability studies and data assimilation will be discussed.

Description: Predictability of the 1997 and 1998 South Asian summer monsoons is examined using National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and 100 two-year simulations with ten different Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST). We focus on the intraseasonal variations of the south Asian summer monsoon associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a clear coupling between SST anomalies and upper level velocity potential anomalies associated with the MJO. We analyze several MJO events that developed during the 1997 and 1998 focusing of the coupling with the SST. The same analysis is carried out for the model simulations. Remarkably, the ensemble mean of the two-year AGCM simulations show a signature of the observed MJO events. The ensemble mean simulated MJO events are approximately in phase with the observed events, although they are weaker, the period of oscillation is somewhat longer, and their onset is delayed by about ten days compared with the observations. Details of the analysis and comparisons among the ten AMIP2 (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) models will be presented in the conference.

Description: The predictability of seasonal means during 1980-99 is examined from 720 seasonal integrations with version 1 of NASA's Seasonal to Interanual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). The AGCM is the atmospheric (and land) component of the NSIPP fully-coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. For these runs, the initial atmospheric conditions are taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalyses, and sea surface temperatures and sea ice are specified from observations. Results from the northern winter integrations show that the model has a very realistic El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response in both the tropics and extratropics. Early results from the northern summer runs show a robust extratropical ENSO response in the Southern Hemisphere Pacific, as well as, a pronounced zonally-symmetric component to the ENSO response in both hemispheres. Results will be presented at the meeting highlighting the seasonal evolution in predictability and skill of the NSIPP model on both global and regional scales. A further analysis of the zonally-symmetric response will be discussed in terms of its potential impact on the predictability of middle-latitude climate variability on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Description: Understanding of the local and remote sources of water vapor can be a valuable diagnostic in understanding the regional atmospheric hydrologic cycle, especially in North America where moisture transport and local evaporation are important sources of water for precipitation. In the present study, we have implemented passive tracers as prognostic variables to follow water vapor evaporated in predetermined regions until the water tracer precipitates. All evaporative sources of water are accounted for by tracers, and the water vapor variable provides the validation of the tracer water and the formulation of the sources and sinks. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites General Circulation Model (GEOS GCM) is used to simulate several summer periods to determine the source regions of precipitation for the United States and India. Using this methodology, a detailed analysis of the recycling of water, interannual variability of the sources of water and links to the Great Plains low-level jet and North American monsoon will be presented. Potential uses in GCM sensitivity studies, predictability studies and data assimilation especially regarding the North American monsoon and GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP) will be discussed.

Description: The primary objective of the three-day workshop on results from the Data Assimilation Office (DAO) five-year assimilation was to provide timely feedback from the data users concerning the strengths and weaknesses of version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilated products. A second objective was to assess user satisfaction with the current methods of data access and retrieval. There were a total of 49 presentations, with about half (23) of the presentations from scientists from outside of Goddard. The first two days were devoted to applications of data: studies of the energy diagnostics, precipitation and diabatic heating, hydrological modeling and moisture transport, cloud forcing and validation, various aspects of intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual variability, ocean wind stress applications, and validation of surface fluxes. The last day included talks from the National Meteorological Center (NMC), the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), the United States Navy, and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).