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  • 1
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    An empirical comparison among aftershock decay models (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We compare the ability of three aftershock decay models proposed in the literature to reproduce the behavior of 24 real aftershock sequences of Southern California and Italy. In particular, we consider the Modified Omori Model (MOM), the Modified Stretched Exponential model (MSE) and the Band Limited Power Law (LPL). We show that, if the background rate is modeled properly, the MSE or the LPL reproduce the aftershock rate decay generally better than the MOM and are preferable, on the basis of the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, for about one half of the sequences. In particular the LPL, which is usually preferable with respect to the MSE and fits well the data of most sequences, might represent a valid alternative to the MOM in real-time forecasts of aftershock probabilities. We also show that the LPL generally fits the data better than a purely empirical formula equivalent to the aftershock rate equation predicted by the rate- and state-dependent friction model. This indicates that the emergence of a negative exponential decay at long times is a general property of many aftershock sequences but also that the process of aftershock generation is not fully described by current physical models.
    Description: Published
    Description: 183–193
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aftershock; Omori's model; Stretched exponential law; Band Limited Power Law; Background rate; Rate- and state-dependent friction law ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Aftershocks hazard in Italy Part I: Estimation of time-magnitude distribution model parameters and computation of probabilities of occurrence (2012)
    Kluwer Academic Publishers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyzed the available instrumental data on Italian earthquakes from 1960 to 1996 to compute the parameters of the time-magnitude distribution model proposed by Reasenberg and Jones (1989) and currently used to make aftershock forecasting in California. From 1981 to 1996 we used the recently released Catalogo Strumentale dei Terremoti ‘Italiani’ (CSTI) (Instrumental Catalog Working Group, 2001) joining the data of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and of the Italian major local seismic network, with magnitude revalued according to Gasperini (2001). From 1960 to 1980 we used instead the Progetto Finalizzato Geodinamica (PFG) catalog (Postpischl, 1985) with magnitude corrected to be homogeneous with the following period. About 40 sequences are detected using two different algorithms and the results of themodeling for the corresponding ones are compared. The average values of distribution parameters (p = 0.93±0.21, Log10(c) = –1.53±0.54, b = 0.96±0.18 and a = –1.66±0.72) are in fair agreement with similar computations performed in other regions of the World. We also analyzed the spatial variation of model parameters that can be used to predict the sequence behavior in the first days of future Italian seismic crisis, before a reliable modeling of the ongoing sequence is available. Moreover some nomograms to expeditiously estimate probabilities and rates of aftershock in Italy are also computed.
    Description: Published
    Description: 235-257
    Description: 2.6. TTC - Laboratorio di gravimetria, magnetismo ed elettromagnetismo in aree attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: aftershocks probability, earthquake clustering, Gutenberg-Richter law, magnitude calibration, Omori’s formula ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Time variations of aftershock decay parameters of the 2009 April 6 L’Aquila (central Italy) earthquake: evidence of the emergence of a negative exponential regime superimposed to the power law (2012)
    WILEY
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analysed the time evolution of the decay parameters of the L’Aquila aftershock sequence, neglecting spatial variability. During the first two months after the main shock, the sequence showed quite unusual properties: a particularly slow decay of the aftershock rate that progressively accelerated and a very scarce sensitivity to the occurrence of strong aftershocks. In the first few days, the decrease of the aftershock rate was compatible with an Omori’s process with power-law exponent p ≈ 0.5. The successive increase of the exponent up to about p = 1.2 in the following months can be interpreted as the emergence of a negative exponential regime that has been found to control the decay of other sequences occurred in Italy and California. In fact, two decay models, even including a negative exponential term, reproduce the aftershock rate in the first 60 days significantly better than the Omori’s law according to the Akaike information criteria. In this time interval, the strongest aftershocks do not seem to have produced significant increases of the aftershock rate while a couple of them seem to be preceded, rather than followed, by a slight increase of the rate. Consequently, epidemic models do not perform significantly better than non-epidemic ones for durations shorter than 60–80 days. A slow change of decay parameters seems to have been preceded a clear increase of the rate occurred 80 days after the main shock in correspondence of a relatively strong aftershock in the main fault area and of the activation of a previously silent fault segment in the NW. As a consequence of such reactivation, epidemic models become preferable with respect to non-epidemic ones for longer durations. The L’Aquila main shock productivity is the highest ever observed in Italy since the installation of a modern seismic network in Italy in mid 1980s, as the number of generated aftershock is from three to 10 times higher than for any previous earthquake of similar magnitude.
    Description: Published
    Description: 764–774
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction; Statistical seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Some insights on the occurrence of recent volcanic eruptions of Mount Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) (2012)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: In the first part of this work, we make use of two non-parametric statistical pattern recognition algorithms and a multiple regression analysis to analyse seismic clusters occur ring around Mount Etna, Italy. The aim is to determine if the onset of flank eruptions at Mount Etna is linked to variations in the regional seismicity at a timescale of few weeks. From the analysis, we find that the discrimination between clusters preceding flank eruptions and clusters not related in time to flank activity is mainly linked to the volume output of the previous flank eruption, in some cases together with the time elapsed from its end. Instead, we do not find any difference in the seismicity features characterizing different types of clusters, except for a very small contribution of the number of seismic events in the clusters. This result does not confirm the existence, suggested in the past, of a direct link between the regional state of stress at a timescale of few weeks and the occurrence of flank eruptions on Mount Etna volcano. On the contrary, the result suggests that a prominent role in the flank eruption occur rence is played by the re-charging of the feeding system. In the second part of this study we analyse the relationship between the magma volume erupted in an eruption and the interevent time following it, finding that a ‘time-predictable model’ satisfactorily describes the occurrence of eruptions at Mount Etna in the last decades. The latter analysis is car ried out both on the flank eruption catalogue only, and on the complete catalogue of flank and summit eruptions, with comparable results.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1203–1218
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: flank eruptions ; Mount Etna volcano ; regional tectonic stress ; statistical pattern recognition ; time predictability ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Correlation between the parameters of the aftershock rate equation: Implications for the forecasting of future sequences (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyzed the correlations among the parameters of the Reasenberg and Jones [Reasenberg, P.A., Jones, L.M., 1989. Earthquake hazard after a mainshock in California, Science 243, 1173–1176] formula describing the aftershock rate after a mainshock as a function of time and magnitude, on the basis of parameter estimates made in previous works for New Zealand, Italy and California. For all of three datasets we found that the magnitude-independent productivity a is significantly correlated with the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law and, in some cases, with parameters p and c of the modified Omori’s law. We also found significant correlations between p and c but, different from some previous works, not between p and b.We verified that assuming a coefficient for mainshock magnitude α≈2/3b (instead of b) removes the correlation between a and b and improves the ability to forecast the behavior of Italian sequences occurred from 1997 to 2003 on the basis of average parameters estimated from sequences occurred from 1981 to 1996. This assumption well agrees with direct α estimates made in the framework of an epidemic type model (ETAS) from the data of some large Italian sequences. Our results suggest a modification of the original Reasenberg and Jones (1989) formulation leading to predict lower rates (and probabilities) for stronger mainshocks and conversely higher rates for weaker ones. We also inferred that the correlation of a with p and c might be the consequence of the trade-off between the two parameters of the modified Omori’s law. In this case the correlation can be partially removed by renormalizing the time-dependent part of the rate equation. Finally, the absence of correlation between p and b, observed for all the examined datasets, indicates that such correlation, previously inferred from theoretical considerations and empirical results in some regions, does not represent a common property of aftershock sequences in different part of the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 41-58
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aftershocks forecasting; Omori law; Gutenberg–Richter law; Parameters correlation ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Comparing different models of aftershock rate decay: The role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after main shock (2012)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We evaluated the efficiency of various models in describing the time decay of aftershock rate of 47 simple sequences occurred in California (37) from 1933 to 2004 and in Italy (10) from 1976 to 2004.We compared the models by the corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), both based on the log-likelihood function and also including a penalty term that takes into account the number of independent observations and of free parameters of each model. These criteria follow two different approaches (probabilistic and Bayesian respectively) well covering the wide spectra of current views on model comparison. To evaluate the role of catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock, we compared the performance of different models by varying the starting time Ts and the minimum magnitude threshold Mmin for each sequence. We found that Omori-type models including parameter c are preferable to those not including it, only for short Ts and low Mmin while the latters generally perform better than the formers for Ts longer than a few hours and Mmin larger than the main shock magnitude Mm minus 3 units. For TsN1 day or MminNMm−2.5, only about 15% of the sequences still give a preference to models including c. This clearly indicates that a value of parameter c different from zero does not represent a general property of aftershock sequences in California and Italy but it is very likely induced in most cases by catalog incompleteness in the first times after the main shock.We also considered other models of aftershock decay proposed in the literature: the Stretched Exponential Law in two forms (including and not including a time shift) and the band Limited Power Law (LPL).We found that such models perform worse than the Modified Omori Model (MOM) and other Omori-type models for the large majority of sequences, although for LPL, the relatively short duration of the analyzed sequences (one year) might also contribute to its poor performance. Our analysis demonstrates that the MOMwith c kept fixed to 0 represent the better choice for the modeling (and the forecasting) of simple sequence behavior in California and Italy.
    Description: Published
    Description: 43-59
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Aftershocks decay; Omori law; Band limited power law; Stretched exponential law; Earthquake catalog incompleteness 1. Introduction ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Comment on “General Orthogonal Regression Relations between Body-Wave and Moment Magnitudes” by Ranjit Das, H. R. Wason, and M. L. Sharma (2015)
    In:  “General Orthogonal Regression Relations between Body-Wave and Moment Magnitudes” by Ranjit Das, H. R. Wason, and M. L. Sharma
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Das et al. (2013) describe a modification of the general orthogonal regression (GOR) method (Fuller, 1987) applied to the magnitude conversion problem that the same authors have already published at least twice in other journals (Das et al., 2012; Wason et al., 2012). Unfortunately, as more ex- haustively discussed in our comment to Wason et al. (2012), published by the Geophysical Journal International (Gasperini and Lolli, 2014), some assumptions made by the authors are wrong and therefore their method has to be rejected....
    Description: Published
    Description: 351
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Statistical seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Comment on ‘Magnitude conversion problem using general orthogonal regression’ by H. R. Wason, Ranjit Das and M. L. Sharma, (Geophys. J. Int., 190, 1091–1096) (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    In:  Magnitude conversion problem using general orthogonal regression’ by H. R. Wason, Ranjit Das and M. L. Sharma, (Geophys. J. Int., 190, 1091–1096)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The argument proposed by Wason et al. that the conversion of magnitudes from a scale (e.g. Ms or mb) to another (e.g. Mw), using the coefficients computed by the general orthogonal regression method (Fuller) is biased if the observed values of the predictor (independent) variable are used in the equation as well as the methodology they suggest to estimate the supposedly true values of the predictor variable are wrong for a number of theoretical and empirical reasons. Hence, we advise against the use of such methodology for magnitude conversions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 626-627
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source observations ; Statistical seismology ; Computational seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    A comparison of moment magnitude estimates for the European–Mediterranean and Italian regions (2013)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: With the goal of constructing a homogeneous data set of moment magnitudes (Mw) to be used for seismic hazard assessment, we compared Mw estimates from moment tensor catalogues available online. We found an apparent scaling disagreement between Mw estimates from the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) of the US Geological Survey and from the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) project. We suspect that this is the effect of an underestimation ofMw 〉 7.0 (M0 〉 4.0 × 1019 Nm) computed by NEIC owing to the limitations of their computational approach. We also found an apparent scaling disagreement between GCMT and two regional moment tensor catalogues provided by the ‘Eidgen¨ossische Technische Hochschule Z¨urich’ (ETHZ) and by the European–Mediterranean Regional Centroid Moment Tensor (RCMT) project of the Italian ‘Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia’ (INGV). This is probably the effect of the overestimation of Mw 〈 5.5 (M0 〈 2.2 × 1017 Nm), up to year 2002, and of Mw 〈 5.0 (M0 〈 4.0 × 1016 Nm), since year 2003, owing to the physical limitations of the standard CMT inversion method used by GCMT for the earthquakes of relatively low magnitude. If the discrepant data are excluded from the comparisons, the scaling disagreements become insignificant in all cases. We observed instead small absolute offsets (≤0.1 units) for NEIC and ETHZ catalogues with respect to GCMT whereas there is an almost perfect correspondence between RCMT and GCMT. Finally, we found a clear underestimation of about 0.2 units of Mw magnitudes computed at the INGV using the time-domain moment tensor (TDMT) method with respect to those reported by GCMT and RCMT. According to our results, we suggest appropriate offset corrections to be applied to Mw estimates from NEIC, ETHZ and TDMT catalogues before merging their data with GCMT and RCMT catalogues. We suggest as well to discard the probably discrepant data from NEIC and GCMT if other Mw estimates from different sources are available for the same earthquakes. We also estimate approximately the average uncertainty of individual Mw estimates to be about 0.07 magnitude units for the GCMT, NEIC, RCMT and ETHZ catalogues and about 0.13 for the TDMT catalogue.
    Description: European Union research project SHARE (Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe), within the ambit of Task 3.1 ‘European Earthquake Database’
    Description: Published
    Description: 1733-1745
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Earthquake source observations; Statistical seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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