Publication Date:
2020-02-05
Description:
Eruption forecasting refers, in general, to the
assessment of the occurrence probability of a given erup-
tive event, whereas volcanic hazards are normally associated
with the analysis of superficial and evident phenomena
that usually accompany eruptions (e.g., lava, pyroclastic
flows, tephra fall, lahars, etc.). Nevertheless, several hazards
of volcanic origin may occur in noneruptive phases dur-
ing unrest episodes. Among others, remarkable examples
are gas emissions, phreatic explosions, ground deforma-
tion, and seismic swarms. Many of such events may lead to
significant damages, and for this reason, the “risk” associ-
ated to unrest episodes could not be negligible with respect
to eruption-related phenomena. Our main objective in this
paper is to provide a quantitative framework to calculate
probabilities of volcanic unrest. The mathematical frame-
work proposed is based on the integration of stochastic mod-
els based on the analysis of eruption occurrence catalogs
into a Bayesian event tree scheme for eruption forecast-
ing and volcanic hazard assessment. Indeed, such models
are based on long-term eruption catalogs and in many
cases allow a more consistent analysis of long-term tem-
poral modulations of volcanic activity. The main result of
this approach is twofold: first, it allows to make inferences
about the probability of volcanic unrest; second, it allows
to project the results of stochastic modeling of the eruptive
history of a volcano toward the probabilistic assessment of
volcanic hazards. To illustrate the performance of the pro-
posed approach, we apply it to determine probabilities of
unrest at Miyakejima volcano, Japan.
Description:
Published
Description:
689
Description:
4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
open
Keywords:
Volcanic unrest
;
Eruption forecasting
;
Bayesian event tree
;
Stochastic models
;
Miyakejima volcano
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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