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  • 1
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    The Making of the NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) (2021)
    Frontiers
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-08
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected seas (NEAM). NEAMTHM18 was designed as a three-phase project. The first two phases were dedicated to the model development and hazard calculations, following a formalized decision-making process based on a multiple-expert protocol. The third phase was dedicated to documentation and dissemination. The hazard assessment workflow was structured in Steps and Levels. There are four Steps: Step-1) probabilistic earthquake model; Step-2) tsunami generation and modeling in deep water; Step-3) shoaling and inundation; Step-4) hazard aggregation and uncertainty quantification. Each Step includes a different number of Levels. Level-0 always describes the input data; the other Levels describe the intermediate results needed to proceed from one Step to another. Alternative datasets and models were considered in the implementation. The epistemic hazard uncertainty was quantified through an ensemble modeling technique accounting for alternative models’ weights and yielding a distribution of hazard curves represented by the mean and various percentiles. Hazard curves were calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI) distributed at an average spacing of ∼20 km. Precalculated probability maps for five maximum inundation heights (MIH) and hazard intensity maps for five average return periods (ARP) were produced from hazard curves. In the entire NEAM Region, MIHs of several meters are rare but not impossible. Considering a 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years (ARP≈2,475 years), the POIs with MIH 〉5 m are fewer than 1% and are all in the Mediterranean on Libya, Egypt, Cyprus, and Greece coasts. In the North-East Atlantic, POIs with MIH 〉3 m are on the coasts of Mauritania and Gulf of Cadiz. Overall, 30% of the POIs have MIH 〉1 m. NEAMTHM18 results and documentation are available through the TSUMAPS-NEAM project website (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/), featuring an interactive web mapper. Although the NEAMTHM18 cannot substitute in-depth analyses at local scales, it represents the first action to start local and more detailed hazard and risk assessments and contributes to designing evacuation maps for tsunami early warning.
    Description: The NEAMTHM18 was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations with grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26 (https://ec.europa.eu/echo/funding-evaluations/financing-civil-protection-europe/selected-projects/probabilistic-tsunami-hazard_en). The work by INGV authors also benefitted from funding by the INGV-DPC Agreement 2012-2021 (Annex B2).
    Description: Published
    Description: 616594
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 3SR TERREMOTI - Attività dei Centri
    Description: 5SR TERREMOTI - Convenzioni derivanti dall'Accordo Quadro decennale INGV-DPC
    Description: 3IT. Calcolo scientifico
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment ; earthquake-generated tsunami ; hazard uncertainty analysis ; ensemble modeling ; maximum inundation height ; NEAM ; 05.08. Risk ; 03.02. Hydrology ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.07. Tectonophysics ; 05.01. Computational geophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18): online data of the Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Model for the NEAM Region from the TSUMAPS-NEAM project (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-10-01
    Description: European-Union Civil Protection Mechanism, DG-ECHO, Agreement Number: ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26
    Description: Published
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Keywords: Europe ; NEAM ; Atlantic Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Aegean Sea ; Marmara Sea ; Black Sea ; earthquake ; tsunami ; moment magnitude ; crustal fault ; subduction interface ; megathrust ; probabilistic hazard model ; natural hazard ; Disaster Risk Reduction ; 05.08. Risk ; 04.06. Seismology ; 03.02. Hydrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: web product
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  • 3
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    A Bayesian seismic hazard analysis for the city of Naples (2018)
    Wiley Library
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-20
    Description: In this paper we explore the feasibility of formulating the hazard assessment procedure to include the information of past earthquakes into the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, together with the use of an ensemble modeling technique. This strategy allows, on the one hand, to enlarge the information used in the evaluation of the hazard, from alternative models for the earthquake generation process to past shaking and, on the other hand, to explicitly account for the uncertainties. The Bayesian scheme we propose is applied to evaluate the seismic hazard of Naples. The framework in which we have embedded the tools is flexible to include all types of uncertainties. Here we focus on a sensitive study of the earthquake occurrence by implementing models that span from random to cluster‐type temporal behavior and models that include quasiperiodic occurrence of earthquakes on faults. We implement five different spatiotemporal models to parameterize the occurrence of earthquakes potentially dangerous for Naples. Subsequently, we combine these hazard curves with ShakeMaps of past earthquakes that have been felt in Naples since 1200 A.D. The results are posterior ensemble hazard curves for three exposure times, e.g., 5, 10, and 50 years, in a dense grid that covers the municipality of Naples, considering rocky soil and including the site amplification. Our results show the importance to include the data from past shaking since the difference between the prior and the posterior is about 8–15% for the different exposure times.
    Description: Futuro in Ricerca 2008” FIRB Project ByMur (RBFR0880SR)
    Description: Published
    Description: 1990-2012
    Description: 6T. Variazioni delle caratteristiche crostali e precursori
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Seismic Hazard ; Bayesian ; Naplese ; Monte Carlo Simulation ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    NEAMTHM18 Documentation: the making of the TSUMAPS-NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-01-17
    Description: The NEAM Tsunami Hazard Model 2018 (NEAMTHM18) is a probabilistic hazard model for tsunamis generated by earthquakes. It covers the coastlines of the North-East Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and connected Seas (NEAM). In this online data product, the hazard results are provided by hazard curves calculated at 2,343 Points of Interest (POI), distributed in the North-East Atlantic (1,076 POIs), the Mediterranean Sea (1,130 POIs), and the Black Sea (137 POIs) at an average spacing of ~20 km. For each POI, hazard curves are given for the mean, 2nd, 16th, 50th, 84th, and 98th percentiles. Maps derived from hazard curves are Probability maps for Maximum Inundation Heights (MIH) of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20 meters; Hazard maps for Average Return Periods (ARP) of 500, 1,000, 2,500, 5,000, 10,000 years. For each map, precalculated displays are provided for the mean, the 16th percentile, and the 84th percentile. All data are also made accessible through an interactive web mapper and through Open Geospatial Consortium standard protocols. The model was prepared in the framework of the European Project TSUMAPS-NEAM (http://www.tsumaps-neam.eu/) funded by the mechanism of the European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (grant no. ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26).
    Description: European-Union Civil Protection Mechanism, DG-ECHO, Agreement Number ECHO/SUB/2015/718568/PREV26
    Description: Published
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: 1SR TERREMOTI - Sorveglianza Sismica e Allerta Tsunami
    Description: 2SR TERREMOTI - Gestione delle emergenze sismiche e da maremoto
    Keywords: Europe ; NEAM ; Atlantic Ocean ; Mediterranean Sea ; Aegean Sea ; Marmara Sea ; Black Sea ; earthquake ; tsunami ; moment magnitude ; crustal fault ; subduction interface ; megathrust ; probabilistic hazard model ; natural hazard ; Disaster Risk Reduction ; 05.08. Risk ; 04.06. Seismology ; 03.02. Hydrology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: report
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