Publication Date:
2015-04-03
Description:
Eruption forecasting is a major goal in volcanology. Logically, but unfortunately, forecasting hazards related to non-magmatic unrest is too often overshadowed by eruption forecasting, although many volcanoes often pass through states of non-eruptive and non-magmatic unrest for various and prolonged periods of time. Volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest can be highly violent and/or destructive (e.g., phreatic eruptions, secondary lahars), can lead into magmatic and eventually eruptive unrest, and can be more difficult to forecast than magmatic unrest, for various reasons. The duration of a state of non-magmatic unrest and the cause, type and locus of hazardous events can be highly variable. Moreover, non-magmatic hazards can be related to factors external to the volcano (e.g., climate, earthquake). So far, monitoring networks are often limited to the usual seismic-ground deformation-gas network, whereas recognizing indicators for non-magmatic unrest requires additional approaches. In this study we summarize non-magmatic unrest processes and potential indicators for related hazards. We propose an event-tree to classify non-magmatic unrest, which aims to cover all major hazardous outcomes. This structure could become useful for future probabilistic non-magmatic hazard assessments, and might reveal clues for future monitoring strategies.
Description:
Published
Description:
17
Description:
2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
Description:
N/A or not JCR
Description:
open
Keywords:
Non-magmatic unrest
;
Volcanic hazard
;
Forecasting
;
Volcanic surveillance
;
Event tree
;
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
;
05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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