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  • 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis  (3)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes  (2)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring  (2)
  • Auckland Volcanic Field  (2)
  • BET_EF code  (2)
  • Polyploidy
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Effects of cooling and equilibration in DMSO, and cryopreservation of mouse oocytes, on the rates of in vitro fertilization, development, and chromosomal abnormalities (1995)
    New York, NY [u.a.] : Wiley-Blackwell
    Molecular Reproduction and Development 40 (1995), S. 110-115 
    Details
    ISSN: 1040-452X
    Keywords: Aneuploidy ; Cryoprotectant ; Fertility ; Polyploidy ; Life and Medical Sciences ; Cell & Developmental Biology
    Source: Wiley InterScience Backfile Collection 1832-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: In a previous study, we have shown that the cryopreservation of mouse oocytes caused increases in the rates of degeneration and of digynic polyploid embryos, while the fertility of frozen-thawed oocytes was decreased. In this study, we have attempted to determine the different stages in the complete freezing-thawing process which are deleterious for the oocytes and the subsequent zygotes. IVF assays showed that DMSO decreased the fertility of oocytes, whereas cooling to 0°C had no effect. DMSO, used at 0°C, was less deleterious for oocytes. Thus, the prefreezing manipulations seem to be important for the quality and fertility of oocytes. However, neither DMSO nor cooling increased the incidence of chromosomal abnormalities in embryos obtained from inseminated exposed oocytes. Therefore, the increased frequency of polyploidy observed in embryos after the cryopreservation of mouse oocytes must correspond to disruption occurring during the freezing-thawing process.
    Additional Material: 2 Tab.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/mrd.1080400114
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 2
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    Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’ (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.
    Description: Published
    Description: 185–204
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Auckland Volcanic Field ; Eruption forecasting ; Bayesian Event Tree ; Ruaumoko ; Disaster exercise ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Bayesian event tree for eruption forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius, Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific factor in defining effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas of the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: (1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; (2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecasted the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; (3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than 2 months before the event.
    Description: Published
    Description: 729-745
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Cold historical data ; Vesuvius ; 1631 eruption ; BET_EF code ; Eruption forecasting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Towards real-time eruption forecasting in the Auckland Volcanic Field: application of BET_EF during the New Zealand National Disaster Exercise ‘Ruaumoko’ (2010)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) is a young basaltic field that lies beneath the urban area of Auckland, New Zealand’s largest city. Over the past 250,000 years the AVF has produced at least 49 basaltic centers; the last eruption was only 600 years ago. In recognition of the high risk associated with a possible future eruption in Auckland, the New Zealand government ran Exercise Ruaumoko in March 2008, a test of New Zealand’s nation-wide preparedness for responding to a major disaster resulting from a volcanic eruption in Auckland City. The exercise scenario was developed in secret, and covered the period of precursory activity up until the eruption. During Exercise Ruaumoko we adapted a recently developed statistical code for eruption forecasting, namely BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting), to independently track the unrest evolution and to forecast the most likely onset time, location and style of the initial phase of the simulated eruption. The code was set up before the start of the exercise by entering reliable information on the past history of the AVF as well as the monitoring signals expected in the event of magmatic unrest and an impending eruption. The average probabilities calculated by BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko corresponded well to the probabilities subjectively (and independently) estimated by the advising scientists (differences of few percentage units), and provided a sound forecast of the timing (before the event, the eruption probability reached 90%) and location of the eruption. This application of BET_EF to a volcanic field that has experienced no historical activity and for which otherwise limited prior information is available shows its versatility and potential usefulness as a tool to aid decision-making for a wide range of volcano types. Our near real-time application of BET_EF during Exercise Ruaumoko highlighted its potential to clarify and possibly optimize decision-making procedures in a future AVF eruption crisis, and as a rational starting point for discussions in a scientific advisory group. It also stimulated valuable scientific discussion around how a future AVF eruption might progress, and highlighted areas of future volcanological research that would reduce epistemic uncertainties through the development of better input models.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Auckland Volcanic Field ; Eruption forecasting ; Bayesian Event Tree ; Ruaumoko ; Disaster exercise ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Forecasting the effects of the Andaman Islands - Sumatra megathrust earthquakes (Dec. 2004 and Mar. 2005) on volcanoes in the surrounding area (2006)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Andaman Islands - Sumatra earthquake (Mw = 9.3, Dec. 2004) and the subsequent Sumatra earthquake (Mw = 8.7, Mar. 2005) represent one of most energetic sequence of earthquakes ever recorded. Since both events occurred in a strongly active volcanic region, their exceptionally strong stress perturbation gives the opportunity to understand the effects of stress perturbations on volcanic systems. Here, we set the rules for a forward test of the causal relationship between stress perturbation and subsequent volcanic eruptions, by means of the comparison of the spatio-temporal distribution of the eruptions which follow the earthquakes with the co- and the post-seismic stress field due to the earthquakes. In practice, we forecast that the volcanic activity of the next 30 years will be significantly promoted by the stress perturbation; thus, we define the rules for an objective test of such an hypothesis. Given the extremely high values of stress perturbation due to this sequence of earthquakes, the results of our test will definitively provide a reliable evaluation of the possible statistical impact of earthquake-eruption interaction on long-term volcanic hazard assessments.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: open
    Keywords: Earthquake-volcano interaction, stastical model, stress field, ; stress field ; Statistical model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: manuscript
    Format: 724315 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
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    Recognizing and tracking volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest: a review (2015)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-03
    Description: Eruption forecasting is a major goal in volcanology. Logically, but unfortunately, forecasting hazards related to non-magmatic unrest is too often overshadowed by eruption forecasting, although many volcanoes often pass through states of non-eruptive and non-magmatic unrest for various and prolonged periods of time. Volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest can be highly violent and/or destructive (e.g., phreatic eruptions, secondary lahars), can lead into magmatic and eventually eruptive unrest, and can be more difficult to forecast than magmatic unrest, for various reasons. The duration of a state of non-magmatic unrest and the cause, type and locus of hazardous events can be highly variable. Moreover, non-magmatic hazards can be related to factors external to the volcano (e.g., climate, earthquake). So far, monitoring networks are often limited to the usual seismic-ground deformation-gas network, whereas recognizing indicators for non-magmatic unrest requires additional approaches. In this study we summarize non-magmatic unrest processes and potential indicators for related hazards. We propose an event-tree to classify non-magmatic unrest, which aims to cover all major hazardous outcomes. This structure could become useful for future probabilistic non-magmatic hazard assessments, and might reveal clues for future monitoring strategies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 17
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: Non-magmatic unrest ; Volcanic hazard ; Forecasting ; Volcanic surveillance ; Event tree ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Bayesian Event Tree for Eruption Forecasting (BET_EF) at Vesuvius, Italy: a retrospective forward application to the 1631 eruption (2008)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Reliable forecasting of the next eruption at Vesuvius is the main scientific ingredient to define effective strategies to reduce volcanic risk in one of the most dangerous volcanic areas around the world. In this paper, we apply a recently developed probabilistic code for eruption forecasting to new and independent historical data related to the pre-eruptive phase of the 1631 eruption. The results obtained point out three main issues: 1) the importance of “cold” historical data (according to Guidoboni 2008) related to pre-eruptive phases for evaluating forecasting tools and possibly refining them; 2) the BET_EF code implemented for Vesuvius would have forecast the 1631 eruption satisfactorily, marking different stages of the pre-eruptive phase; 3) the code shows that pre-eruptive signals that significantly increase the probability of eruption were likely detected more than two months before the event
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: cold historical data ; Vesuvius ; 1631 eruption ; BET_EF code ; eruption forecasting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
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    Probabilistic short-term volcanic hazard in phases of unrest: A case study for tephra fallout (2015)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: During volcanic crises, volcanologists estimate the impact of possible imminent eruptions usually through deterministic modeling of the effects of one or a few preestablished scenarios. Despite such an approach may bring an important information to the decision makers, the sole use of deterministic scenarios does not allow scientists to properly take into consideration all uncertainties, and it cannot be used to assess quantitatively the risk because the latter unavoidably requires a probabilistic approach. We present a model based on the concept of Bayesian event tree (hereinafter named BET_VH_ST, standing for Bayesian event tree for short-term volcanic hazard), for short-term near-real-time probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis formulated for any potential hazardous phenomenon accompanying an eruption. The specific goal of BET_VH_ST is to produce a quantitative assessment of the probability of exceedance of any potential level of intensity for a given volcanic hazard due to eruptions within restricted time windows (hours to days) in any area surrounding the volcano, accounting for all natural and epistemic uncertainties. BET_VH_ST properly assesses the conditional probability at each level of the event tree accounting for any relevant information derived from the monitoring system, theoretical models, and the past history of the volcano, propagating any relevant epistemic uncertainty underlying these assessments. As an application example of the model, we apply BET_VH_ST to assess short-term volcanic hazard related to tephra loading during Major Emergency Simulation Exercise, a major exercise at Mount Vesuvius that took place from 19 to 23 October 2006, consisting in a blind simulation of Vesuvius reactivation, from the early warning phase up to the final eruption, including the evacuation of a sample of about 2000 people from the area at risk. The results show that BET_VH_ST is able to produce short-term forecasts of the impact of tephra fall during a rapidly evolving crisis, accurately accounting for and propagating all uncertainties and enabling rational decision making under uncertainty.
    Description: Published
    Description: 8805–8826
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: embargoed_20161231
    Keywords: short-term probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis ; bayesian event tree ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy) (2010)
    Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.
    Description: Published
    Description: 717-733
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Volcanic hazard ; Ash fall · ; Bayesian event tree ; Campi Flegrei ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
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    Probabilistic hazard for seismically induced tsunamis: accuracy and feasibility of inundation maps (2015)
    Wiley-Blackwell
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) relies on computationally demanding numerical simulations of tsunami generation, propagation, and non-linear inundation on high-resolution topo-bathymetric models. Here we focus on tsunamis generated by co-seismic sea floor dis- placement, that is, on Seismic PTHA (SPTHA). A very large number of tsunami simulations are typically needed to incorporate in SPTHA the full expected variability of seismic sources (the aleatory uncertainty). We propose an approach for reducing their number. To this end, we (i) introduce a simplified event tree to achieve an effective and consistent exploration of the seismic source parameter space; (ii) use the computationally inexpensive linear approximation for tsunami propagation to construct a preliminary SPTHA that calculates the probability of maximum offshore tsunami wave height (H Max) at a given target site; (iii) apply a two-stage filtering procedure to these ‘linear’ SPTHA results, for selecting a reduced set of sources and (iv) calculate ‘non-linear’ probabilistic inundation maps at the target site, using only the selected sources. We find that the selection of the important sources needed for approximating probabilistic inundation maps can be obtained based on the offshore HMax values only. The filtering procedure is semi-automatic and can be easily repeated for any target sites. We describe and test the performances of our approach with a case study in the Mediterranean that considers potential subduction earthquakes on a section of the Hellenic Arc, three target sites on the coast of eastern Sicily and one site on the coast of southern Crete. The comparison between the filtered SPTHA results and those obtained for the full set of sources indicates that our approach allows for a 75–80 per cent reduction of the number of the numerical simulations needed, while preserving the accuracy of probabilistic inundation maps to a reasonable degree.
    Description: Published
    Description: 574-588
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Tsunami ; Hazard ; Probabilistic ; Subduction ; Mediterranean ; SPTHA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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