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  • 1
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    Geodetic strain rate and earthquake size: new clues for seismic hazard studies (2012)
    Elsevier Science Limited
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Earthquakes deliver in few seconds the elastic energy accumulated in hundreds of years. Where and when will be the next earthquake remains a difficult task due to the chaotic behaviour of seismicity and the present lack of available tools to measure the threshold of the crustal strength. However, the analysis of the background strain rate in Italy and the comparison with seismicity shows that larger earthquakes occur with higher probability in areas of lower strain rate. We present a statistical study in which a relationship linking the earthquake size (magnitude) and the total strain rate (SR) is found. We combine the information provided by the Gutenberg–Richter law (GR) of earthquake occurrence and the probability density distribution of SR in the Italian area. Following a Bayesian approach, we found a simple family of exponential decrease curves describing the probability that an event of a given size occurs within a given class of SR. This approach relies on the evidence that elastic energy accumulates in those areas where faults are locked and the SR is lower. Therefore, in tectonically active areas, SR lows are more prone to release larger amount of energy with respect to adjacent zones characterised by higher strain rates. The SR map of Italy, compared with 5 years seismicity supports this result and may become a powerful tool for identifying the areas more prone to the next earthquakes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 67-75
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Strain rate ; Magnitude ; Gutenberg–Richter law ; Bayesian analysis ; Seismic hazard ; Italian area ; L’ Aquila Emilia earthquakes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Static stress drop as determined from geodetic strain rates and statistical seismicity (2012)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: Two critical items in the energetic budget of a seismic province are the strain rate, which is measured geodetically on the Earth's surface, and the yearly number of earthquakes exceeding a given magnitude. Our study is based on one of the most complete and recent seismic catalogs of Italian earthquakes and on the strain rate map implied by a multiyear velocity solution for permanent GPS stations. For each of 36 homogeneous seismic zones we use the appropriate Gutenberg-Richter relation, which is based on the seismicity catalog, to estimate a seismic strain rate, which is the strain rate associated with the mechanical work due to a coseismic displacement. We show that for each seismic zone, the volume storing most of the elastic energy associated with the long-term deformation, and hence the seismic strain rate, is inversely proportional to the static stress drop. The GPS-derived strain rate for each seismic zone limits the corresponding seismic strain rate, and an upper bound for the average stress drop is estimated. We show that the implied regional static stress drop varies from 0.1 to 5.7 MPa for catalog earthquakes in the moment magnitude range [4.5–7.3]. The stress drop results are independent of the regional a and b parameters and heat flow but are very sensitive to the assumed maximum magnitude of a seismic province. The data do not rule out the hypothesis that the stress drop positively correlates with the time elapsed after the largest earthquake recorded in each seismic zone.
    Description: Published
    Description: B02410
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: static stress drop ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Soluzione GPS combinata degli spostamenti cosismici e stima preliminare dei parametri di sorgente - Terremoto Emilia 2012 (2016)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Miglioramento della copertura delle reti geodetiche GPS, soprattutto nelle regioni pedemontane della pianura Padana.Archivio dei caposaldi esistenti e loro misurazione periodica. Archivio dei caposaldi esistenti e loro misurazione periodica. Attivazione di procedure cooperative per la stima di prodotti geodetici di consenso (campo di spostamento cosismico, serie storiche, deformazione, ecc.). Tempo reale: stima dello spostamento cosismico GPS entro i primi 10 min dal terremoto.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Arcavacata di Rende (CS)
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: open
    Keywords: Emilia 2012 ; GPS ; parametri sorgente ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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