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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Earthquakes deliver in few seconds the elastic energy accumulated in hundreds of years. Where and when will be the next earthquake remains a difficult task due to the chaotic behaviour of seismicity and the present lack of available tools to measure the threshold of the crustal strength. However, the analysis of the background strain rate in Italy and the comparison with seismicity shows that larger earthquakes occur with higher probability in areas of lower strain rate. We present a statistical study in which a relationship linking the earthquake size (magnitude) and the total strain rate (SR) is found. We combine the information provided by the Gutenberg–Richter law (GR) of earthquake occurrence and the probability density distribution of SR in the Italian area. Following a Bayesian approach, we found a simple family of exponential decrease curves describing the probability that an event of a given size occurs within a given class of SR. This approach relies on the evidence that elastic energy accumulates in those areas where faults are locked and the SR is lower. Therefore, in tectonically active areas, SR lows are more prone to release larger amount of energy with respect to adjacent zones characterised by higher strain rates. The SR map of Italy, compared with 5 years seismicity supports this result and may become a powerful tool for identifying the areas more prone to the next earthquakes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 67-75
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Strain rate ; Magnitude ; Gutenberg–Richter law ; Bayesian analysis ; Seismic hazard ; Italian area ; L’ Aquila Emilia earthquakes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Mw 6.3 2009 L’Aquila earthquake produced an impressive number of rotational effects on vertically organized objects such as chimneys, pillars, capitals and gravestones. The complete dataset of such effects consists of 120 observations at 39 different sites and represents a compendium of earthquake-induced istances of rotational effects that is unprecedented in recent times. In this work we focus on 49 objects that rest directly on the ground and are not affected by rotational modes of the underlying structure, and can be more reliably considered as representative of pure rotational ground motion. We look for possible relationships between the distribution of the observed rotations and the macroseismic effects of the earthquake, and try to recognize and evaluate which geological and seismological parameters can be significant contributors to local rotations.
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: San Diego CA
    Description: 1.11. TTC - Osservazioni e monitoraggio macrosismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: open
    Keywords: earthquake ; L'Aquila ; rotation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Poster session
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We probe the feasibility of integrating GPS and Synthetic Aperture Radar deformation rates within the seismic hazard models of the central Apennines (Italy), exploiting data from over 100 GPS stations and the ~20- year long ERS and ENVISAT SAR image archive. We then use a kinematic finite element model to derive the long-term strain rates, as well as earthquake recurrence relations. In turn these are input to state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard models, the output of which is validated statistically using data from the Italian national accelerometric and macroseismic intensity databases.
    Description: Published
    Description: 23-27
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic Hazard ; InSAR ; Central apennines ; Ground deformation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The contribution of space geodetic techniques to interseismic velocity estimation, and thus seismic hazard modelling, has been recognized since two decades and made possible in more recent years by the increased availability and accuracy of geodetic measurements. We present the preliminary results of a feasibility study performed within the CHARMING project (Constraining Seismic Hazard Models with InSAR and GPS), funded by the European Space Agency (ESA). For a 200 km x 200 km study area, covering the Abruzzi region (central Italy) we measure the mean surface deformation rates from Synthetic Aperture Radar and GPS, finding several local to regional deformation gradients consistent with the tectonic context. We then use a kinematic finite element model to derive the long-term strain rates, as well as earthquake recurrence relations. In turn these are input to state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic hazard models, the output of which is validated statistically using data from the Italian national accelerometric and macroseismic intensity databases.
    Description: Published
    Description: 373-377
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: N/A or not JCR
    Description: open
    Keywords: Seismic Hazard ; Central Apennines ; InSAR ; Interseismic ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale - OGS, Trieste, Italy
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Mw 6.3 2009 L’Aquila (Central Italy) earthquake produced more than one hundred rotational effects on chimneys, pillars, capitals and gravestones. In this paper we focus on the 37 objects that can be more reliably considered as representative of pure rotational ground motion, and find a relation between the distribution of the observed rotations, the epicentral distance, the macroseismic intensities and the directivity effects that characterize the L’Aquila event. We also find sound relationships between the type of observed rotations and the geophysical, geotechnical and geomorphological characteristics of the site of observation. In downtown L’Aquila we find 1) a remarkable convergence between distribution of the rotations and of the damage; 2) 100% of the rotations occurred at sites characterized by high factors of amplification and poor geological setting; 3) the ground rotations are not strongly dependent on topographic effects. Finally, from quantitative analyses of GPS data we find that the effect of the seismic arrival on an individual vertical object retrieved rotated is an overall rotation with a substantially unpredictable direction
    Description: Published
    Description: 299-312
    Description: 1.11. TTC - Osservazioni e monitoraggio macrosismico del territorio nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: rotational seismology ; earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: Two critical items in the energetic budget of a seismic province are the strain rate, which is measured geodetically on the Earth's surface, and the yearly number of earthquakes exceeding a given magnitude. Our study is based on one of the most complete and recent seismic catalogs of Italian earthquakes and on the strain rate map implied by a multiyear velocity solution for permanent GPS stations. For each of 36 homogeneous seismic zones we use the appropriate Gutenberg-Richter relation, which is based on the seismicity catalog, to estimate a seismic strain rate, which is the strain rate associated with the mechanical work due to a coseismic displacement. We show that for each seismic zone, the volume storing most of the elastic energy associated with the long-term deformation, and hence the seismic strain rate, is inversely proportional to the static stress drop. The GPS-derived strain rate for each seismic zone limits the corresponding seismic strain rate, and an upper bound for the average stress drop is estimated. We show that the implied regional static stress drop varies from 0.1 to 5.7 MPa for catalog earthquakes in the moment magnitude range [4.5–7.3]. The stress drop results are independent of the regional a and b parameters and heat flow but are very sensitive to the assumed maximum magnitude of a seismic province. The data do not rule out the hypothesis that the stress drop positively correlates with the time elapsed after the largest earthquake recorded in each seismic zone.
    Description: Published
    Description: B02410
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: static stress drop ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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