Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
Rank-ordering analysis is applied to the intertimes between seismic events recorded in the Apennine belt between 40–42° N and 14–16° E from the 15th century onwards. It shows a power law capable of governing the intertimes between 1529 and 368 months and another power law which approximates a random simulation, for the intertimes shorter than 368 months. Only the first power law allows the computation of the return period of major events. Earthquakes with the same energy that are aligned according to different power laws imply the presence of two different populations, indicating, in turn, that the physics of seismic phenomena in the region examined is not straightforward, that the stress is probably not unidirectional and that it acts on a non-isotropic medium. The most probable estimated intertime value for the next event is found to be equal to 60 ± 20 years.
Description:
Published
Description:
263-278
Description:
partially_open
Keywords:
Historical seismicity
;
Apennine chain
;
Seismotectonics
;
Power laws
;
Earthquake prediction
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
;
04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
Format:
436 bytes
Format:
433786 bytes
Format:
text/html
Format:
application/pdf
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