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  • 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects  (1)
  • 551.46  (1)
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  • 1
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    Framework for High-End Estimates of Sea Level Rise for Stakeholder Applications (2021)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: An approach to analyze high-end sea level rise is presented to provide a conceptual framework for high-end estimates as a function of time scale, thereby linking robust sea level science with stakeholder needs. Instead of developing and agreeing on a set of high-end sea level rise numbers or using an expert consultation, our effort is focused on the essential task of providing a generic conceptual framework for such discussions and demonstrating its feasibility to address this problem. In contrast, information about high-end sea level rise projections was derived previously either from a likely range emerging from the highest view of emissions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment (currently the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario) or from independent ad hoc studies and expert solicitations. Ideally, users need high-end sea level information representing the upper tail of a single joint sea level frequency distribution, which considers all plausible yet unknown emission scenarios as well as involved physical mechanisms and natural variability of sea level, but this is not possible. In the absence of such information we propose a framework that would infer the required information from explicit conditional statements (lines of evidence) in combination with upper (plausible) physical bounds. This approach acknowledges the growing uncertainty in respective estimates with increasing time scale. It also allows consideration of the various levels of risk aversion of the diverse stakeholders who make coastal policy and adaptation decisions, while maintaining scientific rigor.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; 627.4 ; sea level rise ; high‐end estimates
    Language: English
    Type: map
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    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 2
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    Volcanic ash layers illuminate the resilience of Neanderthals and early modern humans to natural hazards (2012)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-12-06
    Description: Marked changes in human dispersal and development during the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition have been attributed to massive volcanic eruption and/or severe climatic deterioration. We test this concept using records of volcanic ash layers of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption dated to ca. 40,000 y ago (40 ka B.P.). The distribution of the Campanian Ignimbrite has been enhanced by the discovery of cryptotephra deposits (volcanic ash layers that are not visible to the naked eye) in archaeological cave sequences. They enable us to synchronize archaeological and paleoclimatic records through the period of transition from Neanderthal to the earliest anatomically modern human populations in Europe. Our results con!rm that the combined effects of a major volcanic eruption and severe climatic cooling failed to have lasting impacts on Neanderthals or early modern humans in Europe. We infer that modern humans proved a greater competitive threat to indigenous populations than natural disasters.
    Description: funded by the United Kingdom Natural Environment Research Council through a Response of Humans to Abrupt Environmental Transitions (RESET) Consortium Grant
    Description: Published
    Description: 13532–13537
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Neanderthals ; modern humans ; cryptotephra deposits ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.07. Volcanic effects
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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    PAPER (OA)
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