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  • Meteorology and Climatology  (3)
  • 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate  (2)
  • 1
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    Robust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century (2015)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The warm-temperate regions of the globe characterized by dry summers and wet winters (Mediterranean climate; MED) are especially vulnerable to climate change. The potential impact on water resources,ecosystems and human livelihood requires a detailed picture of the future changes in this unique climate zone. Here we apply a probabilistic approach to quantitatively address how and why the geographic distribution of MED will change based on the latest-available climate projections for the 21st century. Our analysis provides, for the first time, a robust assessment of significant northward and eastward future expansions of MED over both the Euro-Mediterranean and western North America. Concurrently, we show a significant 21st century replacement of the equatorward MED margins by the arid climate type.Moreover, future winters will become wetter and summers drier in both the old and newly established MED zones. Should these projections be realized, living conditions in some of the most densely populated regions in the world will be seriously jeopardized.
    Description: Published
    Description: 7211
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: CMIP5 projections ; Mediterranean climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Prediction of Indian summer monsoon onset using dynamical sub-seasonal forecasts: effects of realistic initialization of the atmosphere (2015)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-11-09
    Description: Ensembles of retrospective 2-month dynamical forecasts initiated on 1May are used to predict the onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for the period 1989–2005. The subseasonal predictions (SSPs) are based on a coupled general circulation model and recently they have been upgraded by the realistic initialization of the atmosphere with initial conditions taken from reanalysis. Two objective large-scale methods based on dynamical circulation and hydrological indices are applied to detect the ISM onset. The SSPs show some skill in forecasting earlier-than-normal ISM onsets, while they have difficulty in predicting late onsets. It is shown that significant contribution to the skill in forecasting early ISM onsets comes from the newly developed initialization of the atmosphere from reanalysis. On one hand, atmospheric initialization produces a better representation of the atmospheric mean state in the initial conditions, leading to a systematically improved monsoon onset sequence. On the other hand, the initialization of the atmosphere allows some skill in forecasting the northward propagating intraseasonal wind and precipitation anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean. The northward propagating intraseasonal modes trigger the monsoon in some early-onset years. The realistic phase initialization of these modes improves the forecasts of the associated earlier-than-normal monsoon onsets. The prediction of late onsets is not noticeably improved by the initialization of the atmosphere. It is suggested that late onsets of the monsoon are too far away from the start date of the forecasts to conserve enough memory of the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) anomalies and of the improved representation of the mean state in the initial conditions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 778-793
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: indian summer monsoon ; onset ; seasonal predictions ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.04. Processes and Dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Geographical distribution and interseasonal variability of tropical deep convection: UARS MLS observations and analyses (2004)
    In:  Other Sources
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-06-08
    Description: Tropical deep convection and its dynamical effect on the tropopause and stratosphere are investigated using a suite of data from the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS), including upper tropospheric humidity, cloud radiance, and gravity wave measurements.
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: Journal of Geophysical Research; Volume 109
    Format: text
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    NASA TECHNICAL REPORTS
  • 4
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    New Particle Formation in Anthropogenic Plumes Advecting from Asia Observed During TRACE-P (2003)
    In:  Other Sources
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Description: The characteristics and sources of what are believed to be newly formed 3 to 4 nm particles in anthropogenic plumes advecting from Asian are reported. Airborne measurements were made from March to April 2001 as part of the NASA TRACE-P experiment at latitudes ranging from North of the Philippines to Northern Japan (20 to 45 deg. N). In the more polluted plumes, high concentrations of 3 to 4 nm diameter particles (less than 100/qu cm) were observed both within and along the upper outer edges of plumes that were identified by enhanced carbon monoxide and fine particulate sulfate concentrations. The results from two research flights are investigated in detail. Three to four-nm particle concentrations are generally correlated with gas phase sulfuric acid and found in regions of low surface areas relative to the immediate surroundings or where there are steep transitions to lower surface areas. Sulfuric acid and surface area concentrations in the most polluted plume reached 6 x l0(exp 7) and 750 micro sq m/qu cm, respectively, in regions of particle formation. In contrast to these anthropogenic plumes, few 3 to 4 nm particles were observed in the clean background and few were detected within a volcanic plume where the studies highest H2SO4 concentrations (less than lO(exp 8)/qu cm) were recorded. Enhanced SO2 concentrations in the range of approximately 2 to 7 ppb, in conjunction with other unidentified, possibly coemitted species, appear to be the driving factor for nucleation. (0345, 4801); 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 0345 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Pollution-urban and regional (0305); 4801 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Aerosols (0305).
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: Journal of Geophysical Research (ISSN 0148-0227); 108; D21; 35-1 - 35-13
    Format: text
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  • 5
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    Upper-tropospheric clouds and pollution over Asia: new insights from MLS on Aura (2005)
    In:  Other Sources
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-13
    Keywords: Meteorology and Climatology
    Type: The International Association of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences 2005 Meeting; Aug 02, 2005 - Aug 10, 2005; Beijing; China
    Format: text
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