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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2020-11-09
    Description: Tephra fallout is a major hazard for many human activities, spanning from aviation safety (ash concentration in the air) to building stability (tephra load) as well as health and respiratory problems. Long-term planning is therefore an important task for civil authorities, especially in highly populated areas. Probabilistic hazard maps are useful tools to address these complex issues, and the quantification of the uncertainty associated to such maps represents an equally important element of hazard assessment. In this work, we present a tephra fallout hazard assessment study related to two volcanoes (Cotopaxi and Guagua Pichincha) directly threatening the capital city of Ecuador, Quito. This work resulted in the production of hazard maps of different formats, in order to meet the needs of both the scientific community and the local authorities. The quantification of the uncertainty was performed in two steps. First, an elicitation session involving 20 experts from different countries and areas of expertise was performed in order to quantify: a) the probabilities of occurrence of different eruptive styles at the two studied volcanoes; b) the range of uncertainty of some key eruptive input parameters (total fallout mass, eruption duration, plume height, total grain size distribution). These latter estimations were used to produce hazard maps with different eruptive scenarios. Second, it was quantified the uncertainty of the model used for the development of the hazard maps (the plume model PLUME-MoM coupled with the tephra dispersal model HYSPLIT) using recent eruptions in the Andean context as test cases. Using a combination of eruptive parameters from such uncertainty quantification,, a coefficient of uncertainty has been derived and applied to the final maps to actually quantify the uncertainty related to the model.
    Description: Published
    Description: San Francisco
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Keywords: Cotopaxi ; expert judgement
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-04-13
    Description: OBJECTIF DU PROJET Création de cartes d’aléa probabilistes des retombées de cendre pour les volcans Cotopaxi et Guagua Pichincha et réalisation d'une étude d’aléa plus détaillé pour la ville de Quito NOUVEAUTÉS Utilisation d'un modèle numérique (PLUME-MoM / HYSPLIT) jamais utilisé pour produire des cartes d’aléa probabilistes des retombées de cendre Quantification explicite des principales sources d'incertitudes 1.Du modèle numérique 2.De la probabilité d'avoir différents styles éruptifs 3.De la plage de variation des paramètres éruptifs
    Description: Published
    Description: Clermont-Ferrand (France)
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Keywords: expert judgement ; Cotopaxi
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2006-06-10
    Description: Most ecological hypotheses about species coexistence hinge on species differences, but quantifying trait differences across species in diverse communities is often unfeasible. We examined the variation of demographic traits using a global tropical forest data set covering 4500 species in 10 large-scale tree inventories. With a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we quantified the distribution of mortality and growth rates of all tree species at each site. This allowed us to test the prediction that demographic differences facilitate species richness, as suggested by the theory that a tradeoff between high growth and high survival allows species to coexist. Contrary to the prediction, the most diverse forests had the least demographic variation. Although demographic differences may foster coexistence, they do not explain any of the 16-fold variation in tree species richness observed across the tropics.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Condit, Richard -- Ashton, Peter -- Bunyavejchewin, Sarayudh -- Dattaraja, H S -- Davies, Stuart -- Esufali, Shameema -- Ewango, Corneille -- Foster, Robin -- Gunatilleke, I A U N -- Gunatilleke, C V S -- Hall, Pamela -- Harms, Kyle E -- Hart, Terese -- Hernandez, Consuelo -- Hubbell, Stephen -- Itoh, Akira -- Kiratiprayoon, Somboon -- Lafrankie, James -- de Lao, Suzanne Loo -- Makana, Jean-Remy -- Noor, Md Nur Supardi -- Kassim, Abdul Rahman -- Russo, Sabrina -- Sukumar, Raman -- Samper, Cristian -- Suresh, Hebbalalu S -- Tan, Sylvester -- Thomas, Sean -- Valencia, Renato -- Vallejo, Martha -- Villa, Gorky -- Zillio, Tommaso -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2006 Jul 7;313(5783):98-101. Epub 2006 Jun 8.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, 735 State Street, Santa Barbara, CA 93101, USA. condit@ctfs.si.edu〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16763113" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Africa ; Americas ; Asia ; Bayes Theorem ; *Biodiversity ; *Ecosystem ; Environment ; India ; Models, Statistical ; Normal Distribution ; Seasons ; *Trees/growth & development ; Weather
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2013-08-29
    Description: One of the foreseen missions of the HERMES spacevehicle is the servicing to the Columbus Free Flying Laboratory (MTFF). Docking between the two spacecraft is a critical operation in which the Docking Mechanism (DM) has a major role. In order to analyze and assess robustness of initially selected concepts and to identify suitable implementation solutions, through the investigation of main parameters involved in the docking functions, a multipurpose model of DM was developed and tested. This paper describes the main design features as well as the process of calibrating and testing.
    Keywords: SPACECRAFT DESIGN, TESTING AND PERFORMANCE
    Type: NASA. Goddard Space Flight Center, The 26th Aerospace Mechanisms Symposium; p 297-313
    Format: text
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2019-06-28
    Description: The paper examines the technological issues regarding common berthing interfaces for the Space Station Freedom and pressurized modules from U.S., European, and Japanese space programs. The development of the common berthing mechanism (CBM) is based on common requirements concerning specifications, launch environments, and the unique requirements of ESA's Man-Tended Free Flyer. The berthing mechanism is composed of an active and a passive half, a remote manipulator system, 4 capture-latch assemblies, 16 structural bolts, and a pressure gage to verify equalization. Extensive graphic and verbal descriptions of each element are presented emphasizing the capture-latch motion and powered-bolt operation. The support systems to complete the interface are listed, and the manufacturing requirements for consistent fabrication are discussed to ensure effective international development.
    Keywords: SPACECRAFT DESIGN, TESTING AND PERFORMANCE
    Type: IAF PAPER 91-086
    Format: text
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