ALBERT

Description: Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) have strong radiative properties in the Earth's atmosphere and both are regulated through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Through this convention the United Kingdom is obliged to report an inventory of annual emission estimates from 1990. This paper describes a methodology that estimates emissions of CH4 and N2O completely independent of the inventory values. Emissions have been estimated for each year 1990–2007 for the United Kingdom and for NW Europe. The methodology combines high-frequency observations from Mace Head, a monitoring site on the west coast of Ireland, with an atmospheric dispersion model and an inversion system. The sensitivities of the inversion method to the modeling assumptions are reported. The 20 year Northern Hemisphere midlatitude baseline mixing ratios, growth rates, and seasonal cycles of both gases are also presented. The results indicate reasonable agreement between the inventory and inversion results for the United Kingdom for N2O over the entire period. For CH4 the agreement is poor in the 1990s but good in the 2000s. The UK CH4 inventory reported reduction from 1990–1992 to 2005–2007 (over 50%) is dominated by changes to landfill and coal mine emissions and is more than double the corresponding drop in the inversion estimated emissions (24%). The inversion results suggest that the United Kingdom has met its Kyoto commitment (−12.5%) but by a smaller margin (−14.3%) than reported (−17.3%). The results for NW Europe with the United Kingdom removed show reasonable agreement in trend, on average the inversion results for N2O are 25% lower and for CH4 21% higher.

Description: Airborne measurements of a methane (CH 4 ) plume over the North Sea from August 2013 are analyzed. The plume was only observed downwind of circumnavigated gas fields, and three methods are used to determine its source. First, a mass balance calculation assuming a gas field source gives a CH 4 emission rate between 2.5±0.8x10 4 and 4.6±1.5x10 4 kg h −1 . This would be greater than the industry target of a 0.5% leak rate if it were emitting for more than half the time. Second, annual average UK CH 4 emissions are combined with an atmospheric dispersion model to create pseudo-observations. Clean air from the North Atlantic passed over mainland UK, picking up anthropogenic emissions. To best explain the observed plume using pseudo-observations, an additional North Sea source from the gas rigs area is added. Third, the δ 13 C-CH 4 from the plume is shown to be -53%0, which is lighter than fossil gas but heavier than the UK average emission. We conclude that either an additional small-area mainland source is needed, combined with temporal variability in emission or transport in small-scale meteorological features. Alternatively, a combination of additional sources that are at least 75% from the mainland (-58%0) and up to 25% from the North Sea gas rigs area (-32%0) would explain the measurements. Had the isotopic analysis not been performed, the likely conclusion would have been of a gas field source of CH 4 . This demonstrates the limitation of analysing mole fractions alone, as the simplest explanation is rejected based on analysis of isotopic data.