Publication Date:
2014-09-09
Description:
Abstarct Aftershock sequences, which follow large earthquakes, last hundreds of days and are characterized by well defined frequency-magnitude and spatio-temporal distributions. The largest aftershocks in a sequence constitute significant hazard and can inflict additional damage to infrastructure that is already affected by the main shock. Therefore, the estimation of the magnitude of a possible largest aftershock in a sequence is of high importance. In this work, a Bayesian predictive distribution and the corresponding confidence intervals for the magnitude of the largest expected aftershock in a sequence are derived using the framework of Bayesian analysis and extreme value statistics. The analysis is applied to 19 well known aftershock sequences world-wide to construct retrospectively the confidence intervals for the magnitude of the subsequent largest aftershock by using the statistics of early aftershocks in the sequences.
Print ISSN:
0094-8276
Electronic ISSN:
1944-8007
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
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