ALBERT

Description: Climate models exhibit large biases in sea ice area (SIA) in their historical simulations. This study has explored the impacts of these biases on multi-model uncertainty in CMIP5 ensemble projections of 21 st century change in Antarctic surface temperature, net precipitation and SIA. The analysis is based on time slice climatologies in the RCP8.5 future scenario (2070–2099) and historical (1970–1999) simulations across 37 different CMIP5 models. Projected changes in net precipitation, temperature and SIA are found to be strongly associated with simulated historical mean SIA (e.g. cross-model correlations of r = 0.77, 0.71 and −0.85, respectively). Furthermore, historical SIA bias is found to have a large impact on the simulated ratio between net precipitation response and temperature response. This ratio is smaller in models with smaller-than-observed SIA. These strong emergent relationships on SIA bias could, if found to be physically robust, be exploited to give more precise climate projections for Antarctica.

Description: Extreme wave events in coastal zones are principal drivers of geomorphic change. Evidence of boulder entrainment and erosional impact during storms is increasing. However, there is currently poor time coupling between pre- and post-storm measurements of coastal boulder deposits. Importantly there are no data reporting shore platform erosion, boulder entrainment and/or boulder transport during storm events – rock coast dynamics during storm events are currently unexplored. Here, we use high-resolution (daily) field data to measure and characterise coastal boulder transport before, during and after the extreme Northeast Atlantic extra-tropical cyclone Johanna in March 2008. Forty-eight limestone fine-medium boulders (n = 46) and coarse cobbles (n = 2) were tracked daily over a 0.1 km 2 intertidal area during this multi-day storm. Boulders were repeatedly entrained, transported and deposited, and in some cases broken down (n = 1) or quarried (n = 3), during the most intense days of the storm. Eighty-one percent (n = 39) of boulders were located at both the start and end of the storm. Of these, 92% were entrained where entrainment patterns were closely aligned to wave parameters. These data firmly demonstrate rock coasts are dynamic and vulnerable under storm conditions. No statistically significant relationship was found between boulder size (mass) and net transport distance. Graphical analyses suggest that boulder size limits the maximum longshore transport distance but that for the majority of boulders lying under this threshold, other factors influence transport distance. Paired analysis of 20 similar sized and shaped boulders in different morphogenic zones demonstrates that geomorphological control affects entrainment and transport distance – where net transport distances were up to 39 times less where geomorphological control was greatest. These results have important implications for understanding and for accurately measuring and modelling boulder entrainment and transport. Coastal managers require these data for assessing erosion risk.

Description: This study summarizes organic carbon isotope (δ13C) and total organic carbon (TOC) data from a series of tests undertaken to provide an appropriate methodology for pre-analysis treatment of mudstones from an Upper Carboniferous sedimentary succession, in order to develop a consistent preparation procedure. The main treatments involved removing both inorganic carbonate and hydrocarbons (which might be extraneous) before δ13C and TOC analysis. The results show that decarbonating using hydrochloric acid causes significant reduction in δ13C and total carbon (TC) of the bulk material due to the removal of inorganic carbonate. These changes are most pronounced where soluble calcium carbonate (rather than Ca-Mg-Fe carbonate) is present. Deoiled samples show only slightly higher mean δ13C where visible bitumen was extracted from the bulk sample. Moreover, the isotopic signatures of the extracts are closely correlated to those of their respective bulk samples, suggesting that small yields of hydrocarbons were generated in situ with no isotopic fractionation. In addition, further δ13C and TC analyses were performed on samples where mixing of oil-based drilling mud with brecciated core material had been undertaken. Brecciated mudstone material did not display distinct isotopic signals compared to the surrounding fine-grained material. Overall we show that the most accurate assessment of bulk organic carbon isotopes and concentration in these samples can be achieved through decarbonating the material prior to measurement via the ‘rinse method’. However, our results support recent findings that pre-analysis acid treatments can cause variable and unpredictable errors in δ13C and TOC values. We believe that, despite these uncertainties, the findings presented here can be applied to paleoenvironmental studies on organic matter contained within sedimentary rocks over a range of geological ages and compositions.

Description: Mixed-layer depth (MLD) is often used in a mixed-layer heat budget to relate air-sea exchange to changes in the near-surface ocean temperature. In this study, reanalysis heat flux products and profiles from a 15 year time series of high-resolution, near-repeat expendable bathythermograph/expendable conductivity-temperature-depth (XBT/XCTD) sampling in Drake Passage are used to examine the nature of MLD variations and their impact on a first-order, one-dimensional heat budget for the upper ocean in the regions north and south of the Polar Front. Results show that temperature and density criteria yield different MLD estimates, and that these estimates can be sensitive to the choice of threshold. The difficulty of defining MLD in low-stratification regions, the large amplitude of wintertime MLD (up to 700 m in Drake Passage), and the natural small-scale variability of the upper ocean result in considerable cast-to-cast variability in MLD, with changes of up to 200 m over 10 km horizontal distance. In contrast, the heat content over a fixed-depth interval of the upper ocean shows greater cast-to-cast stability and clearly measures the ocean response to surface heat fluxes. In particular, an annual cycle in upper ocean heat content is in good agreement with the annual cycle in heat flux forcing, which explains ∼24% of the variance in heat content above 400 m depth north of the Polar Front and ∼63% of the variance in heat content south of the Polar Front.

Description: A time series of monthly mean surface temperatures taken at Svalbard airport, Spitzbergen, for the period 1912–2010 was examined for changes in melt-season length. The annual melt-season length was constructed from daily temperature estimates based on the monthly data using smoothing splines. We argue that the changes in annual melt-season length are linked to variability in regional sea surface temperatures, the mean Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. A regression model for the melt-season length with these three parameters as predictors, explained about 40% of the observed variance. The annual mean melt season for the period from 1912 to 2010 was estimated to be 108 days, and the linear trend was 0.17 days/year. The risk of having positive extremes in the melt season increased with increasing Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the regional sea surface temperatures. On the basis of our study of past observations, the 100-year return length of the melt season at Svalbard was predicted to change from the current 95% confidence interval of 131 (108, 138) days to 175 (109, 242) days with 1 °C warming of both regional sea surface temperature and the mean Northern Hemisphere surface temperature. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Terra Nova, 00, 1–11, 2011 Abstract A shell of Gigantoproductus okensis shows twenty growth lines with marked changes of fabric, indicating periodical reduction of growth rates caused by environmental perturbations. The number of growth lines suggests a lifespan of 20 years in agreement with the survival rates of extant brachiopods, and with spiral deviation analysis. Geochemical analyses across the growth profile show a heterogeneous distribution of stable isotopes and trace elements. It is possible to distinguish primary from altered carbonate, and to interpret the isotopic data. The oxygen isotope signal in the unaltered parts is periodical and annual, with oscillation of ∼1.1‰. The higher values are at the growth lines (winter), and therefore most likely related to monsoon circulation during the Visean. The annual periodicity seems also present in the altered part of the shell, suggesting that diagenesis could have reset the primary values, but preserved their cyclicity.

Description: Abstract Organic‐rich mudstones have long been of interest as conventional and unconventional source rocks and are an important organic carbon sink. Yet the processes that deposited organic‐rich muds in epicontinental seaways are poorly understood, partly because few modern analogues exist. This study investigates the processes that transported and deposited sediment and organic matter through part of the Bowland Shale Formation, from the Mississippian Rheic–Tethys seaway. Field to micron‐scale sedimentological analysis reveals a heterogeneous succession of carbonate‐rich, siliceous, and siliciclastic, argillaceous muds. Deposition of these facies at basinal and slope locations was moderated by progradation of the nearby Pendle delta system, fourth‐order eustatic sea‐level fluctuation and localized block‐and‐basin tectonism. Marine transgressions deposited bioclastic ‘marine band' (hemi)pelagic packages. These include abundant euhaline macrofaunal tests, and phosphatic concretions of organic matter and radiolarian tests interpreted as faecal pellets sourced from a productive water column. Lens‐rich (lenticular) mudstones, hybrid, debrite and turbidite beds successively overlie marine band packages and suggest reducing basin accommodation promoted sediment deposition via laminar and hybrid flows sourced from the basin margins. Mud lenses in lenticular mudstones lack organic linings and bioclasts and are equant in early‐cemented lenses and in plan‐view and are largest and most abundant in mudstones overlying marine band packages. Thus, lenses likely represent partially consolidated mud clasts that were scoured and transported in bedload from the shelf or proximal slope, as a ‘shelf to basin' conveyor, during periods of reduced basin accommodation. Candidate in situ microbial mats in strongly lenticular mudstones, and as rip‐up fragments in the down‐dip hybrid beds, suggest that these were potentially key biostabilizers of mud. Deltaic mud export was fast, despite the intrabasinal complexity, likely an order of magnitude higher than similar successions deposited in North America. Epicontinental basins remotely linked to delta systems were therefore capable of rapidly accumulating both sediment and organic matter. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Deep sedimentary basins amplify long‐period shaking from seismic waves, increasing the seismic hazard for cities sited on such basins. We perform 3‐D simulations of point source earthquakes distributed around the Seattle and Tacoma basins in Washington State to examine the dependence of basin amplification on source azimuth, depth, and earthquake type. For periods between 1 and 10 s, the pattern of amplification is spatially heterogeneous and differs considerably with the source‐to‐site azimuth. For close‐in earthquakes, the greatest basin amplification occurs toward the farside of the basin and ground motions from crustal earthquakes experience greater amplification than those from more vertically incident, deeper intraplate earthquakes. Love and Rayleigh waves form similar spatial patterns for a given source location, although the magnitude of amplification varies. The source dependence of basin amplification is an important factor for seismic hazard assessment, in both the Seattle and Tacoma basins, and by extension for deep sedimentary basins worldwide.

Description: Abstract Empirical equations for wave breaking and wave setup are compared with archived shoreline wave setup measurements to investigate the contribution of wind‐waves to extreme Mean Total Water Levels (MTWL, the mean height of the shoreline), for natural beaches exposed to open ocean wind‐waves. A broad range of formulations are compared through linear regression and quantile regression analysis of the highest measured values. Shoreline wave setup equations are selected based on the availability of local beach slope data and the ability of the quantile regression to show a good representation of the highest measured levels. Wave parameters from an existing spectral wave hindcast are used as input to the selected equations and are combined with a storm‐tide time series to quantify the relative contribution of shoreline wave setup to the extreme MTWL climate along Australian beaches. A multi‐pass analysis is provided to understand the ability to capture the shoreline wave setup estimates with and without considering beach slope. The national scale analysis which does not include beach slope indicates there are multiple contributing factors to MTWL. Examples are provided at two locations of differing local beach slope to show the importance of including local beach slope in determining the contribution of waves to MTWL. A tool is in development for further investigation of wave setup for Australian beaches.

Description: Under global warming the Caribbean is projected to be significantly drier by century's end during its primary rainy season from May to November. The PRECIS regional model is used to simulate the end-of-century (2071–2100) manifestation of the Caribbean Low Level Jet (CLLJ) under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global warming scenarios. The CLLJ is a feature of the Intra-American seas which during its July peak is dynamically linked to a brief mid-summer drying and interruption of the Caribbean rainy season. The regional model captures the CLLJ's present-day spatial and temporal characteristics reasonably well, simulating both the boreal winter (February) and summer (July) peaks. Under global warming there is an intensification of the CLLJ's core strength from May through November. The intensification is such that by October the CLLJ is of comparable core strength to its present-day peak in July. The persistence of the strong CLLJ beyond July and through November is linked to the perpetuation of a dry pattern in the Caribbean in the future. In contrast, the boreal winter manifestation of the CLLJ is largely unaltered in the future. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society