Publication Date:
2017-04-04
Description:
Possible changes in the intensity of heavy
precipitation events at the end of the twenty-first century
over the Euro-Mediterranean region are investigated, using
a subset of numerical climate simulations taking part to the
fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP5). As a measure of the intensity associated with
heavy precipitation events, we use the difference between
the 99th and the 90th percentiles. Despite a slight tendency
to underestimate the observed heavy precipitation intensity
during summer and to overestimate it during winter, the
considered CMIP5 models well represent the observed
patterns of the defined 99th–90th percentile metric during
both seasons for the 1997–2005 period over the Euro-
Mediterranean region. Over the investigated domain, an
increase of the width of the right tail of the precipitation
distribution is projected in a warmer climate, even over
regions where nearly the entire precipitation distribution
becomes dryer. This is the case of the European domain
within the 45N–55N belt.
Description:
Published
Description:
595–602
Description:
4A. Clima e Oceani
Description:
JCR Journal
Description:
restricted
Keywords:
extreme events
;
precipitation
;
europe
;
01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
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