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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Earthquake prediction: a political problem? (1997)
    Springer
    Geologische Rundschau 86 (1997), S. 446-463 
    Details
    ISSN: 0016-7835
    Keywords: Key words Earthquakes ; Forecasting ; Hazard ; risk ; Decision making
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract  Earthquake prediction is an area of research of great scientific and public fascination. The reason for this is not only that earthquakes can cause extremely large numbers of fatalities in a short time, but also because earthquakes can have a large social and economic impact on society. Earthquake prediction in the sense of making deterministic predictions about the place, time, and magnitude of earthquakes may very well be fundamentally impossible. However, based on a variety of data, earth scientists can make statements about the probability that earthquakes with a certain size will occur in a certain region over a specified time period. In this context one speaks of “earthquake forecasting.” A number of methods to achieve this are presented. However, it is not obvious how society should respond to these forecasts. It is shown that there is a fundamental dilemma for decision makers that statements of scientists concerning earthquake occurrence either contain very specific information but are very uncertain, or contain very general information but are very certain. Earthquake hazard can to a large extent be reduced by formulating and enforcing appropriate building codes. However, given the fact that the majority of the population that is threatened by earthquakes is living in the third world, it is clear that this cannot easily be realized. For these reasons, earthquake prediction is not only a scientific problem: it also has a complex political dimension.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s005310050153
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 2
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    Source parameters of four strong earthquakes in Bulgaria and Portugal at the beginning of the 20th century (2002)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2002-01-01
    Description: Using original seismograph records and bulletin data were-determined the origin time, location, seismic moment (M0) and magnitudes (MS and Mw) for the four earthquakes in the beginning of the 20th century. These are two strong earthquakes April 4, 1904 near Krupnik, Bulgaria (Mw = 6.8, MS = 7.2 respectively), the April 23 1909 earthquake near Benavente, Portugal (MS = 6.3), and the June 14, 1913 earthquake near Gorna Orjahovitza, Bulgaria (MS = 6.3). Twenty-nine traces from original records have been analysed, a large number of original station bulletins have been consulted and a consistent methodology for analysing these early 20th century instrumental information is presented. In spite of a thorough effort in re-assembling and quality control of the original data, large inaccuracies remain in the improved instrumental epicentre locations and origin times. The seismic moment estimates we obtained (2.3 1018 ≤ M0 ≤ 3.9 1019 Nm) are the first ever determined for these events. The magnitude estimates (6.3 ≤ MS ≤ 7.2 and 6.2 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.0) are robust and systematically lower than most of previous estimates for all earthquakes (Gutenberg and Richter, 1954; Christoskov and Grigorova, 1968; Karnik, 1969). For the largest Krupnik event our estimates agree with those of Abe and Noguchi (1983b) and Pacheco and Sykes (1992). The studied earthquakes all occur in moderately seismic active regions, therefore our results may have significant consequences for hazard estimates in those regions.
    Print ISSN: 1383-4649
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-157X
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Springer
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  • 3
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    Intrinsic absorption and scattering attenuation in the southern part of the Netherlands (2004)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2004-01-01
    Description: We present the first systematic study of attenuation derived from the S-wave coda in the frequency range 1-32 Hz for the southern part of the Netherlands and its surroundings. For this we used two methods, the coda Q (Qc) method and the Multiple Lapse Time Window (MLTW) method. In the interpretation of the results both single and multiple scattering in a half space are considered. Our aim is to validate these interpretations in our region and to try to identify the effects of attenuation due to intrinsic absorption (Qi) and scattering attenuation (Qs). For this we analyzed more than 100 3-component high-quality digital seismograms from 43 crustal events and 23 stations in the Netherlands, Germany and Belgium. Coda Q results show smaller Qc (= Qofn) values for epicentral distances shorter than 25 km (Qo = 90) compared to larger epicentral distances (Qo = 190), but similar frequency dependence (∝ f-0.9). Interpretation of MLTW results provided a seismic albedo smaller than 0.5, suggesting that the intrinsic absorption dominates overscattering in this region. Both Qi and Qs show similar frequency dependences as Qc. These results are comparable to those obtained in other areas, but we also show that more sophisticated models are required to remove ambiguities in the interpretation. For short lapse times and short event-station distances we find for the simple half space model a corresponding interpretation of both methodologies, where Qc corresponds to Qt, suggesting that a model with single scattering in a half space is appropriate. For long lapse times and long-event station distances, however, we find that the S-wave coda is, most probably, too much influenced by crust-mantel heterogenities. More sophisticated Q inversion models using larger data sets are required for more reliable attenuation estimates.
    Print ISSN: 1383-4649
    Electronic ISSN: 1573-157X
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Springer
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