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  • 1
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    A quantitative model for volcanic hazard assessment (2007)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanic hazard assessment is a basic ingredient for risk-based decision-making in land-use planning and emergency management. Volcanic hazard is defined as the probability of any particular area being affected by a destructive volcanic event within a given period of time (Fournier d’Albe 1979). The probabilistic nature of such an important issue derives from the fact that volcanic activity is a complex process, characterized by several and usually unknown degrees of freedom that are often linked by nonlinear relationships (e.g. Bak et al. 1988). Except in sporadic cases, the result of this complexity is an intrinsic, and perhaps unavoidable, unpredictability of the time evolution of the volcanic system from a deterministic point of view.
    Description: Published
    Description: open
    Keywords: model ; volcanic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: book
    Format: 137534 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting (2007)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
    Description: Published
    Description: on line first
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Eruption forecasting ; Long- and short-term volcanic hazard ; Bayesian inference ; Event tree ; Fuzzy sets ; MESIMEX ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (2010)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Bayesian method ; Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment ; Run-up ; Modular structure ; Seismic sources ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting (2008)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The main purpose of this paper is to introduce a Bayesian event tree model for eruption forecasting (BET_EF). The model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging all the relevant available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data. BET_EF is based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting, therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, as land use planning, and during volcanic emergencies. Finally, we provide the description of a free software package that provides a graphically supported computation of short- to long-term eruption forecasting, and a tutorial application to the recent MESIMEX exercise at Vesuvius.
    Description: Published
    Description: 623-632
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: eruption forecasting ; event tree ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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