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1

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Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model (1993)

Monserud, Robert A. ; Tchebakova, Nadja M. ; Leemans, Rik

Springer

Climatic change 25 (1993), S. 59-83

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ISSN: 1573-1480

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Abstract A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO2 doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). Global vegetation maps after climate change are compared to the current climate vegetation map using the kappa statistic for judging agreement, as well as by calculating area statistics. All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Specifically, all Boreal vegetation classes are predicted to shrink. The interrelated classes of Tundra, Taiga, and Temperate Forest are predicted to replace much of their poleward (mostly northern) neighbors. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favoring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50–100 y needed for CO2 doubling, it is nevertheless not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01094084

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2

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Sensitivity of terrestrial carbon storage to CO2-induced climate change: Comparison of four scenarios based on general circulation models (1992)

Smith, Thomas M. ; Leemans, Rik ; Shugart, Herman H.

Springer

Climatic change 21 (1992), S. 367-384

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ISSN: 1573-1480

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of CO2-induced climate change on terrestrial carbon storage was estimated using the Holdridge Life-Zone Classification and four climate change scenarios derived from general circulation models. Carbon values were assigned to life-zones and their associated soils from published studies. All four scenarios suggest an increase in area occupied by forests although details of predicted patterns vary among the scenarios. There is a poleward shift of the forested zones, with an increase in the areal extent of tropical forests and a shift of the boreal forest zone into the region currently occupied by tundra. Terrestrial carbon storage increased from 0.4% (8.5 Gt) to 9.5% (180.5 Gt) above estimates for present conditions. These changes represent a potential reduction of 4 to 85 ppm on elevated atmospheric CO2 levels.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00141377

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3

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The interaction of climate and land use in future terrestrial carbon storage and release (1993)

Solomon, Allen M. ; Prentice, I. Colin ; Leemans, Rik ; [et al.]

Springer

Water, air & soil pollution 70 (1993), S. 595-614

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ISSN: 1573-2932

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Abstract The processes controlling total carbon (C) storage and release from the terrestrial biosphere are still poorly quantified. We conclude from analysis of paleodata and climate biome model output that terrestrial C exchanges since the last glacial maximum (LGM) were dominated by slow processes of C sequestration in soils, possibly modified by C starvation and reduced water use efficiency of trees during the LGM. Human intrusion into the C cycle was immeasurably small. These processes produced an averaged C sink in the terrestrial biosphere on the order of 0.05 Pg yr−1 during the past 10,000 years. In contrast, future C cycling will be dominated by human activities, not only from increasing C release with burning of fossil fuels, and but also from indirect effects which increase C storage in the terrestrial biosphere (CO2 fertilization; management of C by technology and afforestation; synchronous early forest succession from widespread cropland abandonment) and decrease C storage in the biosphere (synchronous forest dieback from climatic stress; warming-induced oxidation of soil C; slowed forest succession; unfinished tree life cycles; delayed immigration of trees; increasing agricultural land use). Comparison of the positive and negative C flux processes involved suggests that if the C sequestration processes are important, they likely will be so during the next few decades, gradually being counteracted by the C release processes. Based only on tabulating known or predicted C flux effects of these processes, we could not determine if the earth will act as a significant C source from dominance by natural C cycle processes, or as a C sink made possible only by excellent earth stewardship in the next 50 to 100 yrs. Our subsequent analysis concentrated on recent estimates of C release from forest replacement by increased agriculture. Those results suggest that future agriculture may produce an additional 0.6 to 1.2 Pg yr−1 loss during the 50 to 100 years to CO2 doubling if the current ratio of farmed to potentially-farmed land is maintained; or a greater loss, up to a maximum of 1.4 to 2.8 Pg yr−1 if all potential agricultural land is farmed.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01105024

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4

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Description and simulation of tree-layer composition and size distributions in a primaeval Picea-Pinus forest (1987)

Leemans, Rik ; Prentice, I. Colin

Springer

Plant ecology 69 (1987), S. 147-156

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ISSN: 1573-5052

Keywords: Forest structure ; Gap model ; Old-growth coniferous forest ; Shade tolerance ; Similation ; Succession ; Vegetation dynamics

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Biology

Notes: Abstract A structural description of a 0.5 ha stand in the primaeval coniferous forest of Fiby in central Sweden is reported, and a simulation model is used to test the hypothesis that the diameter and height distributions of the two most important tree species Pinus sylvestris L. (shade-intolerant) and Picea abies (L.) Karst. (shade-tolerant), are the outcome of simple successional processes following storm-felling 190 yr previously. The simulation model, FORSKA, is a ‘gap model’ treating light and other resource availability as homogeneous within patches. Simple formulations of dimensional relationships, vertical leaf area distributions within trees, light attenuation through the canopy and net assimilation as a function of ligh intensity allow FORSKA to simulate the species mixture, size distributions and vertical canopy structure of mixed-age, mixed-species forests. Parameters of the model were estimated from literature and from field data on height-diameter relationships, establishment rates and maximum ring-widths. The simulation generated a stand description similar to the real one in all essential characteristics. FORSKA allows vertical overlap between the crowns of nearby trees. The present simulation also differed from many gap model simulations in that the patch size was much greater than the maximum crown size, consistent with field observations that single treefall gaps have little effect; the persistence of shade-intolerant species in boreal forests generally depends on larger-scale disturbance events, such as large storm-gaps and forest fires.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00038696

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5

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Global and Regional Impacts of Stabilizing Atmospheric CO2 (1997)

Krol, Maarten ; Alcamo, Joseph ; Leemans, Rik

Springer

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361

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ISSN: 1573-1596

Keywords: carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography

Notes: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilizaton scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027389.02277.7d

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6

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Global and regional impacts of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 (1997)

Krol, Maarten ; Alcamo, Joseph ; Leemans, Rik

Springer

Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361

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ISSN: 1573-1596

Keywords: carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions

Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography

Notes: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilization scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00464887

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