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  • 1
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    A stock rebuilding algorithm featuring risk assessment and an optimization strategy of single or multispecies fisheries (2007)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2007-07-17
    Description: Gröger, J. P., Rountree, R. A., Missong, M., and Rätz, H-J. 2007. A stock rebuilding algorithm featuring risk assessment and an optimization strategy of single or multispecies fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 1101–1115. We present a simple but flexible stock-rebuilding algorithm model that features ideas of risk assessment, with all constraints set up explicitly, and with clear optimality for controlling fishing effort (or fishing mortality) and maximizing landings (or economic value). In contrast to the conventional approach, our approach does not predict future stock development from historical stock dynamics, but provides directly optimal annual F values and associated optimum catch quotas for a given planning horizon. Hence, the F values are not estimated retrospectively, but are realizations of a control variable created through the optimization process. The optimal solution is based on maximization of a non-linearly constrained objective function for catch or yield, whereas the constraints inter alia include biomass targets, F limits, and stable catch. We present the basic theory together with selected model variants, such as inclusion of biological interactions and integration of elements of risk assessment. The optimization procedure outlined here is not only “risk averse” but a risk minimization procedure in itself. It can be applied in a deterministic or stochastic decision-making process as well as within a single or multispecies context. We illustrate the approach with a simplified (deterministic) multispecies fisheries management and a (stochastic) single-species risk assessment example.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
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  • 2
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    Sustainable management of mixed demersal fisheries in the North Sea through fleet-based management—a proposal from a biological perspective (2007)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2007-04-16
    Description: Rätz, H-J., Bethke, E., Dörner, H., Beare, D., and Gröger, J. 2007. Sustainable management of mixed demersal fisheries in the North Sea through fleet-based management—a proposal from a biological perspective. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 64: 652–660. Cod, haddock, whiting, saithe, plaice, sole, and Norway lobster are main target species for the mixed demersal fisheries of the North Sea, Skagerrak, and eastern Channel. Management by total allowable catch has not been able to constrain exploitation of individual species, so the potential for a fleet-specific effort management system to reach the management objectives established for the stocks is simulated. Relative fleet-specific effort factors are estimated based on the sum of partial fishing mortalities of the species caught, weighted by the stocks at risk of reduced reproductive capacity. The strategy promotes the use of selective gear and levies non-selective gear. The factors were applied in medium-term simulations of the annual decision process in accordance with existing and proposed multi-annual management plans (including for cod recovery). Strict effort reduction would be required for fleets targeting cod, plaice, or sole (specifically large- and medium-mesh trawler fleets, beam trawlers, and gillnetters) for ∼5 years, reducing the exploitation rates on all stocks substantially. Cod and plaice are predicted to recover by 2010 and cod catches to exceed recent levels continually, with the more selective longliners and some other gear types profiting most. Management objectives for cod dominate annual effort adjustments, resulting in substantial underexploitation of other stocks. However, even a 10% bias caused by non-compliance would largely halt cod recovery and the restoration of other stocks.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
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  • 3
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    Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank (2011)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2011-02-01
    Description: Gröger, J. P., and Fogarty, M. J. 2011. Broad-scale climate influences on cod (Gadus morhua) recruitment on Georges Bank. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 68: . Climatic influences on Georges Bank cod recruitment were investigated using the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as an index of atmospheric variability and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as an index of sea surface temperature. A quantitative approach based on a simple Cushing-type stock–recruitment model was developed and extended to include climate influences using the technique of generalized transfer functions (ARIMAX modelling). This allowed the autoregressive nature of the interacting exogenous and endogenous processes to be taken into account. Based on two information criteria, the resulting best transfer function contains winter NAO with a lag of 3 years, annual AMO with a lag of 1 year (both as exogenous climate factors), loge(spawning-stock biomass) as a structural model component, plus two autoregressive parameters. The model is characterized by the smallest information criteria, 92% of explained recruitment variation (vs. 55% from the simple Cushing-type model), excellent forecasting behaviour, and all model assumptions being fulfilled. It is proposed that the model's recruitment hindcasts (ex post forecasts) and forecasts be incorporated into stock and risk assessments as well as management strategy evaluations, either as a climate-induced recruitment index for projections or as real forecasts to establish sustainable cod fisheries on Georges Bank conditioned by climate as a forcing factor.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
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  • 4
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    Slave to the rhythm: how large-scale climate cycles trigger herring (Clupea harengus) regeneration in the North Sea (2009)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2009-11-29
    Description: Gröger, J. P., Kruse, G. H., and Rohlf, N. 2010. Slave to the rhythm: how large-scale climate cycles trigger herring (Clupea harengus) regeneration in the North Sea. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 67: 454–465. Understanding the causes of variability in the recruitment of marine fish stocks has been the “holy grail” of fisheries scientists for more than 100 years. Currently, debate is ongoing about the functionality and performance of traditional stock–recruitment functions used during stock assessments. Additionally, the European Commission requires European fishery scientists to apply the ecosystem approach to fisheries in part by integrating environmental knowledge into stock assessments and forecasts. Motivated to understand better the recent years of reproductive failures of commercially valuable North Sea herring, we studied large-scale climate changes in the North Atlantic Ocean and their potential effects on stock regeneration. Applying traffic light plots and time-series (TS) analyses, it was possible not only to explain the most recent reproductive failures, but also to reconstruct the full TS of recruitment from climate cycles, indexed by the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. A prognostic model was developed to provide predictions of herring stock changes several years in advance, allowing recruitment forecasts to be incorporated easily into risk assessments and management strategy evaluations, to promote a sustainable herring fishery in the North Sea. Insights gained from the analysis permit reinterpretation of the sharp decline in the North Sea herring stocks in the 1970s.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
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  • 5
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    Recruitment in a changing environment: the 2000s North Sea herring recruitment failure (2009)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2009-01-15
    Description: Payne, M. R., Hatfield, E. M. C., Dickey-Collas, M., Falkenhaug, T., Gallego, A., Gröger, J., Licandro, P., Llope, M., Munk, P., Röckmann, C., Schmidt, J. O., and Nash, R. D. M. 2009. Recruitment in a changing environment: the 2000s North Sea herring recruitment failure. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 272–277. Environmentally induced change appears to be impacting the recruitment of North Sea herring (Clupea harengus). Despite simultaneously having a large adult population, historically low exploitation, and Marine Stewardship Council accreditation (implying sustainability), there have been an unprecedented 6 sequential years of poor juvenile production (recruitment). Analysis suggests that the poor recruitment arises during the larval overwintering phase, with recent survival rates greatly reduced. Contemporary warming of the North Sea has caused significant changes in the plankton community, and a recently identified regime shift around 2000 shows close temporal agreement with the reduced larval survival. It is, therefore, possible that we are observing the first consequences of this planktonic change for higher trophic levels. There is no indication of a recovery in recruitment in the short term. Fishing mortality is currently outside the agreed management plan, and forecasts show a high risk of the stock moving outside safe biological limits soon, potentially precipitating another collapse of the stock. However, bringing the realized fishing mortality back in line with the management plan would likely alleviate the problem. This illustrates again that recruitment is influenced by more than just spawning-stock biomass, and that changes in other factors can be of equal, or even greater, importance. In such dynamically changing environments, recent management success does not necessarily guarantee future sustainability.
    Print ISSN: 1054-3139
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9289
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Council for the Exploration of the Sea.
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