ALBERT

Description: One of the main methods to determine the strength of the lithosphere is by estimating it's effective elastic thickness. This method assumes that the lithosphere is a thin elastic plate that floats on the mantle and uses both topography and gravity anomalies to estimate the plate thickness. Whereas this seems to work well for oceanic plates, it has given controversial results in continental collision zones. For most of these locations, additional geophysical data sets such as receiver functions and seismic tomography exist that constrain the geometry of the lithosphere and often show that it is rather complex. Yet, lithospheric geometry by itself is insufficient to understand the dynamics of the lithosphere as this also requires knowledge of the rheology of the lithosphere. Laboratory experiments suggest that rocks deform in a viscous manner if temperatures are high and stresses low, or in a plastic/brittle manner if the yield stress is exceeded. Yet, the experimental results show significant variability between various rock types and there are large uncertainties in extrapolating laboratory values to nature, which leaves room for speculation. An independent method is thus required to better understand the rheology and dynamics of the lithosphere in collision zones. The goal of this paper is to discuss such an approach. Our method relies on performing numerical thermomechanical forward models of the present-day lithosphere with an initial geometry that is constructed from geophysical data sets. We employ experimentally determined creep-laws for the various parts of the lithosphere, but assume that the parameters of these creep-laws as well as the temperature structure of the lithosphere are uncertain. This is used as a priori information to formulate a Bayesian inverse problem that employs topography, gravity, horizontal and vertical surface velocities to invert for the unknown material parameters and temperature structure. In order to test the general methodology, we first perform a geodynamic inversion of a synthetic forward model of intraoceanic subduction with known parameters. This requires solving an inverse problem with 14–16 parameters, depending on whether temperature is assumed to be known or not. With the help of a massively parallel direct-search combined with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, solving the inverse problem becomes feasible. Results show that the rheological parameters and particularly the effective viscosity structure of the lithosphere can be reconstructed in a probabilistic sense. This also holds, with somewhat larger uncertainties, for the case where the temperature distribution is parametrized. Finally, we apply the method to a cross-section of the India–Asia collision system. In this case, the number of parameters is larger, which requires solving around 1.9  x 10 6 forward models. The resulting models fit the data within their respective uncertainty bounds, and show that the Indian mantle lithosphere must have a high viscosity. Results for the Tibetan plateau are less clear, and both models with a weak Asian mantle lithosphere and with a weak Asian lower crust fit the data nearly equally well.

Description: Bayesian sampling based inversions require many thousands or even millions of forward models, depending on how nonlinear or non-unique the inverse problem is, and how many unknowns are involved. The result of such a probabilistic inversion is not a single ‘best-fit’ model, but rather a probability distribution that is represented by the entire model ensemble. Often, a geophysical inverse problem is non-unique, and the corresponding posterior distribution is multimodal, meaning that the distribution consists of clusters with similar models that represent the observations equally well. In these cases, we would like to visualize the characteristic model properties within each of these clusters of models. However, even for a moderate number of inversion parameters, a manual appraisal for a large number of models is not feasible. This poses the question whether it is possible to extract end-member models that represent each of the best-fit regions including their uncertainties. Here, I show how a machine learning tool can be used to characterize end-member models, including their uncertainties, from a complete model ensemble that represents a posterior probability distribution. The model ensemble used here results from a nonlinear geodynamic inverse problem, where rheological properties of the lithosphere are constrained from multiple geophysical observations. It is demonstrated that by taking vertical cross-sections through the effective viscosity structure of each of the models, the entire model ensemble can be classified into four end-member model categories that have a similar effective viscosity structure. These classification results are helpful to explore the non-uniqueness of the inverse problem and can be used to compute representative data fits for each of the end-member models. Conversely, these insights also reveal how new observational constraints could reduce the non-uniqueness. The method is not limited to geodynamic applications and a generalized MATLAB code is provided to perform the appraisal analysis.