ALBERT

Description: We study fluctuations in the degree-2 zonal spherical harmonic coefficient of the Earth's gravity potential, C 20 , over the period 2003–2015. This coefficient is related to the Earth's oblateness and studying its temporal variations, C 20 , can be used to monitor large-scale mass movements between high and low latitude regions. We examine C 20 inferred from six different sources, including satellite laser ranging (SLR), GRACE and global geophysical fluids models. We further include estimates that we derive from measured variations in the length-of-day (LOD), from the inversion of global crustal displacements as measured by GPS, as well as from the combination of GRACE and the output of an ocean model as described by Sun et al. We apply a sequence of trend and seasonal moving average filters to the different time-series in order to decompose them into an interannual, a seasonal and an intraseasonal component. We then perform a comparison analysis for each component, and we further estimate the noise level contained in the different series using an extended version of the three-cornered-hat method. For the seasonal component, we generally obtain a very good agreement between the different sources, and except for the LOD-derived series, we find that over 90 per cent of the variance in the seasonal components can be explained by the sum of an annual and semiannual oscillation of constant amplitudes and phases, indicating that the seasonal pattern is stable over the considered time period. High consistency between the different estimates is also observed for the intraseasonal component, except for the solution from GRACE, which is known to be affected by a strong tide-like alias with a period of about 161 d. Estimated interannual components from the different sources are generally in agreement with each other, although estimates from GRACE and LOD present some discrepancies. Slight deviations are further observed for the estimate from the geophysical models, likely to be related to the omission of polar ice and groundwater changes in the model combination we use. On the other hand, these processes do not seem to play an important role at seasonal and shorter timescales, as the sum of modelled atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological effects effectively explains the observed C 20 variations at those scales. We generally obtain very good results for the solution from SLR, and we confirm that this well-established technique accurately tracks changes in C 20 . Good agreement is further observed for the estimate from the GPS inversion, showing that this indirect method is successful in capturing fluctuations in C 20 on scales ranging from intra- to interannual. Obtaining accurate estimates from LOD, however, remains a challenging task and more reliable models of atmospheric wind fields are needed in order to obtain high-quality C 20 , in particular at the seasonal scale. The combination of GRACE data and the output of an ocean model appears to be a promising approach, particularly since corresponding C 20 is not affected by tide-like aliases, and generally gives better results than the solution from GRACE, which still seems to be of rather poor quality.

Description: The relative gravimeter is the primary terrestrial instrument for measuring spatially and temporally varying gravitational fields. The background noise of the instrument—that is, non-linear drift and random tares—typically requires some form of least-squares network adjustment to integrate data collected during a campaign that may take several days to weeks. Here, we present an approach to remove the change in the observed relative-gravity differences caused by hydrologic or other transient processes during a single campaign, so that the adjusted gravity values can be referenced to a single epoch. The conceptual approach is an example of coupled hydrogeophysical inversion, by which a hydrologic model is used to inform and constrain the geophysical forward model. The hydrologic model simulates the spatial variation of the rate of change of gravity as either a linear function of distance from an infiltration source, or using a 3-D numerical groundwater model. The linear function can be included in and solved for as part of the network adjustment. Alternatively, the groundwater model is used to predict the change of gravity at each station through time, from which the accumulated gravity change is calculated and removed from the data prior to the network adjustment. Data from a field experiment conducted at an artificial-recharge facility are used to verify our approach. Maximum gravity change due to hydrology (observed using a superconducting gravimeter) during the relative-gravity field campaigns was up to 2.6 μGal d –1 , each campaign was between 4 and 6 d and one month elapsed between campaigns. The maximum absolute difference in the estimated gravity change between two campaigns, two months apart, using the standard network adjustment method and the new approach, was 5.5 μGal. The maximum gravity change between the same two campaigns was 148 μGal, and spatial variation in gravity change revealed zones of preferential infiltration and areas of relatively high groundwater storage. The accommodation for spatially varying gravity change would be most important for long-duration campaigns, campaigns with very rapid changes in gravity and (or) campaigns where especially precise observed relative-gravity differences are used in the network adjustment.

Description: A sequence of large earthquakes occurred along the North Anatolian fault in the 20th century. These earthquakes, including the 1999 Izmit/Düzce earthquakes, generally propagated westward towards the Marmara Sea, defining the Main Marmara fault as a potential seismic gap. It is important to conduct a detailed assessment of the seismic hazards along the main Marmara fault because the megacity Istanbul lies only approximately 10 km north of the eastern segment of the Main Marmara fault, which is referred to as the Princes’ Islands Fault segment (PIF). Here, we study the locking status of this fault segment to evaluate the seismic hazard potential. For the first time, combined ascending and descending Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System observations were used to investigate the crustal deformation associated with the PIF. After careful corrections of the estimated ground velocity, a deformation pattern relating to fault locking near the Princes’ Islands was identified. The modeling results revealed that the slip rate and locking depth of the fault segment show a clear trade-off, which were estimated as 18.9 ± 7.2 mm yr –1 and 12.1 ± 7.0 km, respectively. With a moment accumulation rate of 1.7 ± 0.4  x  10 17 Nm yr –1 (proportional to the product of slip rate and locking depth), our results imply a build-up of a geodetic moment on the PIF and therefore a potential for earthquake hazards in the vicinity of the Istanbul megacity.

Description: A sequence of large earthquakes occurred along the North Anatolian fault in the 20th century. These earthquakes, including the 1999 Izmit/Düzce earthquakes, generally propagated westward towards the Marmara Sea, defining the Main Marmara fault as a potential seismic gap. It is important to conduct a detailed assessment of the seismic hazards along the main Marmara fault because the megacity Istanbul lies only approximately 10 km north of the eastern segment of the Main Marmara fault, which is referred to as the Princes’ Islands Fault segment (PIF). Here, we study the locking status of this fault segment to evaluate the seismic hazard potential. For the first time, combined ascending and descending Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar and Global Positioning System observations were used to investigate the crustal deformation associated with the PIF. After careful corrections of the estimated ground velocity, a deformation pattern relating to fault locking near the Princes’ Islands was identified. The modeling results revealed that the slip rate and locking depth of the fault segment show a clear trade-off, which were estimated as 18.9 ± 7.2 mm yr –1 and 12.1 ± 7.0 km, respectively. With a moment accumulation rate of 1.7 ± 0.4  x  10 17 Nm yr –1 (proportional to the product of slip rate and locking depth), our results imply a build-up of a geodetic moment on the PIF and therefore a potential for earthquake hazards in the vicinity of the Istanbul megacity.

Description: We present a new method to derive 3-D surface deformation from an integration of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations based on Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC), considering relationship between deformations of neighbouring locations. This method avoids interpolated errors by excluding the interpolation of GNSS into the same spatial resolution as InSAR images and harnesses the data sets and the prior smooth constraints of surface deformation objectively and simultaneously by using ABIC, which were inherently unresolved in previous studies. In particular, we define surface roughness measuring smoothing degree to evaluate the performance of the prior constraints and deduce the formula of the covariance for the estimation errors to estimate the uncertainty of modelled solution. We validate this method using synthetic tests and the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. We find that the optimal weights associated with ABIC minimum are generally at trade-off locations that balance contributions from InSAR, GNSS data sets and the prior constraints. We use this method to evaluate the influence of the interpolated errors from the Ordinary Kriging algorithm on the derivation of surface deformation. Tests show that the interpolated errors may contribute to biasing very large weights imposed on Kriged GNSS data, suggesting that fixing the relative weights is required in this case. We also make a comparison with SISTEM method, indicating that our method allows obtaining better estimations even with sparse GNSS observations. In addition, this method can be generalized to provide a solution for situations where some types of data sets are lacking and can be exploited further to account for data sets such as the integration of displacements along radar lines and offsets along satellite tracks.

Description: We have extended backwards from 2001 to 1979 the current release 05 (RL05) of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Atmospheric and Oceanic De-aliasing Level-1B (AOD1B) product and studied the impact of this and a previous release 04 (RL04) of the AOD1B product on precise orbits of five altimetry satellites (ERS-1, ERS-2, TOPEX/Poseidon, Envisat and Jason-1) for the time span 1991–2012, as compared to the case when no AOD1B product is used. We have found that using AOD1B RL05 product reduces root mean square (RMS) fits of satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations by about 1.0–6.4 per cent, 2-d arc overlaps in radial, cross-track and along-track directions by about 1.3–12.0, 0.3–10.0 and 2.0–10.0 per cent, respectively, for various satellites tested, as compared to the case without AOD1B product. Using AOD1B RL05 product instead of RL04 one reduces SLR RMS fits by 0.1–0.7 per cent, 2-d arc overlaps in radial, cross-track and along-track directions by 0.1–0.6, 0.1–1.3 and 0.2–1.2 per cent, respectively, for the satellite orbits tested. The multi-mission crossover analysis shows that the application of an AOD1B product reduces the scatter of radial errors by 0.4–2.8 per cent for the satellite missions studied. At the regions with the most pronounced changes the use of the AOD1B products improves the consistency between the sea level as measured by the TOPEX and ERS-2 missions and by the Jason-1 and Envisat missions by 5 to 10 per cent (globally by about 2 per cent). The results of our study show that extended AOD1B RL05 product performs better than the AOD1B RL04 and improves orbits of altimetry satellites and consistency of sea level products.

Description: The paper in question by Van Camp and co-authors [MVC] challenges previous work showing that ground gravity data arising from hydrology can provide a consistent signal for the comparison with satellite gravity data. The data sets used are similar to those used previously, that is, the gravity field as measured by the GRACE satellites versus ground-based data from superconducting gravimeters (SGs) over the same continental area, in this case Central Europe. One of the main impediments in this paper is the presentation that is frequently confusing and misleading as to what the data analysis really shows, for example, the irregular treatment of annual components that are first subtracted then reappear in the analysis. More importantly, we disagree on specific points. Two calculations are included in our comment to illustrate where we believe that the processing in [MVC] paper is deficient. The first deals with their erroneous treatment of the global hydrology using a truncated spherical harmonic approach which explains almost a factor 2 error in their computation of the loading. The second shows the effect of making the wrong assumption in the GRACE/hydrology/surface gravity comparison by inverting the whole of the hydrology loading for underground stations. We also challenge their claims that empirical orthogonal function techniques cannot be done in the presence of periodic components, and that SG data cannot be corrected for comparisons with GRACE data. The main conclusion of their paper, that there is little coherence between ground gravity stations and this invalidates GRACE comparisons, is therefore questionable. There is nothing in [MVC] that contradicts any of the previous papers that have shown clearly a strong relation between seasonal signals obtained from both ground gravity and GRACE satellite data.

Description: During megathrust earthquakes, great ruptures are accompanied by large scale mass redistribution inside the solid Earth and by ocean mass redistribution due to bathymetry changes. These large scale mass displacements can be detected using the monthly gravity maps of the GRACE satellite mission. In recent years it has become increasingly common to use the long wavelength changes in the Earth's gravity field observed by GRACE to infer seismic source properties for large megathrust earthquakes. An important advantage of space gravimetry is that it is independent from the availability of land for its measurements. This is relevant for observation of megathrust earthquakes, which occur mostly offshore, such as the $M_{\text{w}} \sim 9$ 2004 Sumatra–Andaman, 2010 Maule (Chile) and 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) events. In Broerse et al. , we examined the effect of the presence of an ocean above the rupture on long wavelength gravity changes and showed it to be of the first order. Here we revisit the implementation of an ocean layer through the sea level equation and compare the results with approximated methods that have been used in the literature. One of the simplifications usually lies in the assumption of a globally uniform ocean layer. We show that especially in the case of the 2010 Maule earthquake, due to the closeness of the South American continent, the uniform ocean assumption is not valid and causes errors up to 57 per cent for modelled peak geoid height changes (expressed at a spherical harmonic truncation degree of 40). In addition, we show that when a large amount of slip occurs close to the trench, horizontal motions of the ocean floor play a mayor role in the ocean contribution to gravity changes. Using a slip model of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake that places the majority of slip close to the surface, the peak value in geoid height change increases by 50 per cent due to horizontal ocean floor motion. Furthermore, we test the influence of the maximum spherical harmonic degree at which the sea level equation is performed for sea level changes occurring along coastlines, which shows to be important for relative sea level changes occurring along the shore. Finally, we demonstrate that ocean floor loading, self-gravitation of water and conservation of water mass are of second order importance for coseismic gravity changes. When GRACE observations are used to determine earthquake parameters such as seismic moment or source depth, the uniform ocean layer method introduces large biases, depending on the location of the rupture with respect to the continent. The same holds for interpreting shallow slip when horizontal motions are not properly accounted for in the ocean contribution. In both cases the depth at which slip occurs will be underestimated.

Description: Global navigation satellite systems (GNSSs) have revealed that a mega-thrust earthquake that occurs in an island-arc trench system causes post-seismic crustal deformation. Such crustal deformation data have been interpreted by combining three mechanisms: afterslip, poroelastic rebound and viscoelastic relaxation. It is seismologically important to determine the contribution of each mechanism because it provides frictional properties between the plate boundaries and viscosity estimates in the asthenosphere which are necessary to evaluate the stress behaviour during earthquake cycles. However, the observation sites of GNSS are mostly deployed over land and can detect only a small part of the large-scale deformation, which precludes a clear separation of the mechanisms. To extend the spatial coverage of the deformation area, recent studies started to use satellite gravity data that can detect long-wavelength deformations over the ocean. To date, compared with theoretical models for calculating the post-seismic crustal deformation, a few models have been proposed to interpret the corresponding gravity variations. Previous approaches have adopted approximations for the effects of compressibility, sphericity and self-gravitation when computing gravity changes. In this study, a new spectral-finite element approach is presented to consider the effects of material compressibility for Burgers viscoelastic earth model with a laterally heterogeneous viscosity distribution. After the basic principles are explained, it is applied to the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake. For this event, post-seismic deformation mechanisms are still a controversial topic. Using the developed approach, it is shown that the spatial patterns of gravity change generated by the above three mechanisms clearly differ from one another. A comparison of the theoretical simulation results with the satellite gravity data obtained from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment reveals that both afterslip and viscoelastic relaxation are occurring. Considering the spatial patterns in satellite gravity fields is an effective method for investigating post-seismic deformation mechanisms.

Description: Moment accumulation rate (also referred to as moment deficit rate) is a fundamental quantity for evaluating seismic hazard. The conventional approach for evaluating moment accumulation rate of creeping faults is to invert for the slip distribution from geodetic measurements, although even with perfect data these slip-rate inversions are non-unique. In this study, we show that the slip-rate versus depth inversion is not needed because moment accumulation rate can be estimated directly from surface geodetic data. We propose an integral approach that uses dense geodetic observations from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and the Global Positioning System (GPS) to constrain the moment accumulation rate. The moment accumulation rate is related to the integral of the product of the along-strike velocity and the distance from the fault. We demonstrate our methods by studying the Creeping Section of the San Andreas fault observed by GPS and radar interferometry onboard the ERS and ALOS satellites. Along-strike variation of the moment accumulation rate is derived in order to investigate the degree of partial locking of the Creeping Section. The central Creeping Segment has a moment accumulation rate of 0.25–3.1  x  10 15 Nm yr –1 km –1 . The upper and lower bounds of the moment accumulation rates are derived based on the statistics of the noise. Our best-fitting model indicates that the central portion of the Creeping Section is accumulating seismic moment at rates that are about 5 per cent to 23 per cent of the fully locked Carrizo segment that will eventually be released seismically. A cumulative moment budget calculation with the historical earthquake catalogue ( M  〉 5.5) since 1857 shows that the net moment deficit at present is equivalent to a M w 6.3 earthquake.