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  • MDPI  (1)
  • United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Pan African START Secretariat (PASS)  (1)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-07-18
    Description: Climate, Vol. 5, Pages 54: On the Use of Regression Models to Predict Tea Crop Yield Responses to Climate Change: A Case of Nandi East, Sub-County of Nandi County, Kenya Climate doi: 10.3390/cli5030054 Authors: Betty Sitienei Shem Juma Everline Opere Tea is a major cash crop in Kenya. Predicting the potential effects of climate change on tea crops prompts the use of statistical models to measure how the crop responds to climate variables. The statistical model was trained on historical tea yields, and how they related to past data on maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation over Nandi East Sub-County. Scatter diagrams for selected months were generated from tea yield and temperature data. A multiple linear model was developed to predict tea yield using climatic variables. A contingency table was used to verify the model. Results from an analysis of trends in rainfall depicted a positive trend and revealed an increased frequency of annual droughts. The study showed that the frequency of extreme rainfall events during September-October-November (SON) season has decreased. Results from an analysis of the trends in temperature revealed that the minimum temperatures are increasing and that the frequency of extreme events has increased. Rising maximum temperatures were observed in March. The study revealed that May, the cold month, is becoming warmer. Correlation analysis indicated that the climatic variables during some months in both the concurrent year and the previous year were positively correlated with the tea yield. However, there was an inverse relationship between maximum temperature and rainfall. Results of model verification revealed that that 70% of model forecasts were correct. The results also showed that at least half of the observed events were correctly forecasted and thus the majority of the forecasts were true. An equation for predicting the yield of tea from the climate variables is presented.
    Electronic ISSN: 2225-1154
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geosciences
    Published by MDPI
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  • 2
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    United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Pan African START Secretariat (PASS) | Nairobi, Kenya
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: The paper puts into context, the main forms of natural disastors that predisposes the environment and inhabitants of the Lake Victoria basin to vulnerabilities. Singling out drought and floods as the most devastating natyral harzards, the paper presents a conceivable drivers of the the two phenomena, their social, economic and environmental consequences as well as opportunities for prevention, mitigation and management The social and biophysical characteristics that increase vulnerabilities to natural hazards are also discussed.A range of mitigation measures is available including reforestation through the improvement of land management practices have been proposed. The paper also sets priorities in flood protection to focus on monitoring and surveillance of flood situation, simple measures for flood mitigation, disaster management and the operation and maintenance of flood management works. Specific measures that should instituted in relation to policy, legislative and institutional reforms, and capacity building including formation of national and regional flood management boards that specifically deal with natural disasters are also presented. Wealth creation and poverty alleviation are issues must be given prominence in the economic recovery strategies for all governments in the basin.
    Description: Published
    Keywords: Natural disasters ; Floods ; Droughts ; Vulnerability ; Disaster management ; Disaster preparedness ; Early flood/drought warning system
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Book Section , Not Known
    Format: pp.135-148
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