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  • Articles  (2)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability  (2)
  • INGV  (1)
  • Seismological Society of America  (1)
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  • Articles  (2)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2019-11-04
    Description: The evaluation of any earthquake forecast hypothesis requires the application of rigorous statistical methods. It implies a univocal definition of the model characterising the concerned anomaly or precursor, so as it can be objectively recognised in any circumstance and by any observer.A valid forecast hypothesis is expected to maximise successes and minimise false alarms. The probability gain associated to a precursor is also a popular way to estimate the quality of the predictions based on such precursor. Some scientists make use of a statistical approach based on the computation of the likelihood of an observed realisation of seismic events, and on the comparison of the likelihood obtained under different hypotheses. This method can be extended to algorithms that allow the computation of the density distribution of the conditional probability of earthquake occurrence in space, time and magnitude. Whatever method is chosen for building up a new hypothesis, the final assessment of its validity should be carried out by a test on a new and independent set of observations. The implementation of this test could, however, be problematic for seismicity characterised by long-term recurrence intervals. Even using the historical record, that may span time windows extremely variable between a few centuries to a few millennia, we have a low probability to catch more than one or two events on the same fault. Extending the record of earthquakes of the past back in time up to several millennia, paleoseismology represents a great opportunity to study how earthquakes recur through time and thus provide innovative contributions to time-dependent seismic hazard assessment. Sets of paleoseimologically dated earthquakes have been established for some faults in the Mediterranean area: the Irpinia fault in Southern Italy, the Fucino fault in Central Italy, the El Asnam fault in Algeria and the Skinos fault in Central Greece. By using the age of the paleoearthquakes with their associated uncertainty we have computed, through a Montecarlo procedure, the probability that the observed inter-event times come from a uniform random distribution (null hypothesis). This probability is estimated approximately equal to 8.4% for the Irpinia fault, 0.5% for the Fucino fault, 49% for the El Asnam fault and 42% for the Skinos fault. So, the null Poisson hypothesis can be rejected with a confidence level of 99.5% for the Fucino fault, but it can be rejected only with a confidence level between 90% and 95% for the Irpinia fault, while it cannot be rejected for the other two cases. As discussed in the last section of this paper, whatever the scientific value of any prediction hypothesis, it should be considered effective only after evaluation of the balance between the costs and benefits introduced by its practical implementation.
    Description: Published
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: precursors ; earthquake forecast ; statistical tests ; paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 507563 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-06-09
    Description: In the frame of the Italian research project INGV-DPC S2 (http://nuovoprogettoesse2.stru.polimi.it/), funded by the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC; National Civil Protection Department) within the agreement 2007-2009, a tool for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) was developed. The main goal of the project was to provide a flexible computational tool for PSHA; the requirements considered essential for the success of the project included: •ability to handle both stationary and non-stationary earthquake time-occurrence models; •ability to use ground-motion prediction models that are not parametric equations but probabilistic "footprints" of the intensities generated by earthquakes of known magnitude and focal characteristics. Usually, these footprints are results of ground motion simulations. Some commonly used programs (e.g., FRISK, by McGuire, 1978; SEISRISK III, by Bender and Perkins, 1987) and more recent and state-of-the-art tools (e.g. OpenSHA, by Field et al., 2003, http://www.opensha.org; OpenQuake, http://openquake.org) for PSHA were analyzed. It was decided to focus on CRISIS2007, which was already a mature and well known application (e.g., Kalyan Kumar and Dodagoudar, 2011; Teraphan et al., 2011; D’Amico et al., 2012; see also http://ecapra.org/CRISIS-2007), but also suitable for additional development and evolution since its source code is freely available on request. The computational tool resulted in an extensive redesign and renovation of the previous CRISIS2007 version. CRISIS is a computer program for PSHA, originally developed in the late 1980's using Fortran as programming language (Ordaz, 1991). In this format, still without a graphical user interface (GUI), it was distributed as part of SEISAN tools (Ottemöller et al., 2011). Ten years later, a GUI was constructed, generating what was called CRISIS99 (Ordaz, 1999). In this version, all the graphic features were written in Visual Basic, but the computation engine remained a Fortran dynamic link library. The reason for the use of mixed-language programming was that computations in Visual Basic were extremely slow. Around 2007 the program was upgraded, in view of the advantages offered by the object-oriented technologies. An object-oriented programming language was required and the natural choice was Visual Basic.Net. In the new version (called CRISIS2007), both the GUI and the computation engine were written in the same language. Finally, in the frame of the mentioned S2 project, starting from 2008, the program was split into two logical layers: core (CRISIS Core Library) and presentation (CRISIS2008). In addition, a new presentation layer was developed for accessing the same functionalities via Web (CRISISWeb). It is worth noting that CRISIS has been mainly written by people that are, at the same time, PSHA practitioners. Therefore, the development loop has been relatively short, and most of the modifications and improvements have been made to satisfy the needs of the developers themselves.
    Description: Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC).
    Description: Published
    Description: 495-504
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic Hazard ; Seismology ; Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assesment ; PSHA ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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