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  • 1
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    A Novel Soft Ensemble Model for Financial Distress Prediction with Different Sample Sizes (2019)
    Hindawi
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-04-04
    Description: This work presents a novel soft ensemble model (ANSEM) for financial distress prediction with different sample sizes. It integrates qualitative classifiers (expert system method, ES) and quantitative classifiers (convolutional neural network, CNN) based on the uni-int decision making method of soft set theory (UI). We introduce internet searches indices as new variables for financial distress prediction. By constructing a soft set representation of each classifier and then using the optimal decision on soft sets to identify the financial status of firms, ANSEM inherits advantages of ES, CNN, and UI. Empirical experiments with the real data set of Chinese listed firms demonstrate that the proposed ANSEM has superior predicting performance for financial distress on accuracy and stability with different sample sizes. Further discussions also show that internet searches indices can offer additional information to improve predicting performance.
    Print ISSN: 1024-123X
    Electronic ISSN: 1563-5147
    Topics: Mathematics , Technology
    Published by Hindawi
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  • 2
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    Optimal Pricing Strategies in a Product and Service Supply Chain with Extended Warranty Service Competition considering Retailer Fairness Concern (2019)
    Hindawi
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    Publication Date: 2019-08-27
    Description: This paper examines optimal pricing in a two-tier product and service supply chain consisting of a manufacturer and a retailer in the context of vertical competition in extended warranty in two cases: one considering the retailer’s fairness concerns and one without considering the retailer’s fairness concerns. A manufacturer-dominated product and service supply chain game-theoretic model on the Stackelberg model is developed to analyse how the level of vertical competition in extended warranty service and the intensity of a retailer’s fairness concerns influence the optimal pricing of products and extended warranties for the manufacturer and retailer. This study finds the following: (i) Two parties of the supply chain employ differential pricing strategies for extended warranties when the retailer has fairness concerns. (ii) Compared to the same pricing strategies for extended warranty service when the retailer has no fairness concerns, the increase of competition intensity of vertical extended warranty service will enlarge the price difference of extended warranty service. Meanwhile, it is the intensity of fairness concerns that determines the influences of retailer’s fairness concerns on the price difference of extended warranties. (iii) If no fairness concerns are raised, an increase in the level of vertical competition in extended warranty service would benefit both supply chain parties, rather than hurting their profit. If the retailer is fair-minded, its fairness utility increases when the intensity of the fairness concerns rises in a reasonable range and decreases when the intensity exceeds the reasonable range, but for the manufacturer, its profits will be damaged as long as the retailer raises fairness concerns.
    Print ISSN: 1024-123X
    Electronic ISSN: 1563-5147
    Topics: Mathematics , Technology
    Published by Hindawi
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  • 3
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    Risk Transfer Mechanism for Agricultural Products Supply Chain Based on Weather Index Insurance (2018)
    Hindawi
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    Publication Date: 2018-08-14
    Description: The risk management for agricultural products supply chain is more complex than that for typical manufacturing supply chain. Agricultural production is vulnerable to severe weather such as heavy rain, cyclones, and cold wave, which challenges the matching of random output with random demand for agricultural products supply chains. The goal of this paper is to design an effective risk transfer mechanism for managing severe weather risks so as to ensure the stable operation of the agricultural products supply chain. We study the coordination of two-level agricultural products supply chain with a single company and a single farmer under the influence of severe weather. Taking rainstorm weather as an example, this paper designs a risk transfer mechanism based on weather index (rainfall) insurance: “rainfall index insurance + revenue sharing + risk transfer fee.” It is found that this risk transfer mechanism can overcome distortion of the farmer’s agricultural investment level under the influence of severe weather. When the contract parameters meet certain conditions, using the risk transfer mechanism can achieve the supply chain coordination and a win-win situation. More importantly, weather change does not affect the Pareto improvement of the company and the farmer under the risk transfer mechanism. In addition, we also find that the company can incentivize the farmer to purchase weather index insurance and use the insurance market to shift the severe weather risk encountered during the agricultural production to protect the company’s and farmer’s income and the stable operation of the supply chain.
    Print ISSN: 1076-2787
    Electronic ISSN: 1099-0526
    Topics: Computer Science , Mathematics
    Published by Hindawi
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  • 4
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    Joint Optimal Pricing and Ordering Decisions for Seasonal Products with Weather-Sensitive Demand (2014)
    Hindawi
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-01-01
    Description: Retailers selling seasonal products often face the challenge in matching their inventory levels with uncertain market demand which is sensitive to weather conditions, such as the average seasonal temperature. Therefore, how to make the joint ordering and pricing decisions may help retailers to increase their profits. In this paper, we address the joint determination of pricing and ordering decisions in a newsvendor setting, where a retailer (newsvendor) sells the seasonal products and faces demand risk due to weather uncertainty. We show that the maximum expected profit function is continuous and concave, so the optimal solution to the retail price and order quantity exists and it is the one and only solution. In addition, we numerically investigate the impacts of related parameters on the retailer’s expected profit and the optimal pricing and ordering decisions and illustrate some useful management insights into the economic behavior of firms.
    Print ISSN: 1026-0226
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-887X
    Topics: Mathematics
    Published by Hindawi
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