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  • Articles  (6)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk  (5)
  • C14
  • E52
  • J24
  • Lunar and Planetary Science and Exploration
  • SO2 Flux Monitoring
  • Elsevier Science Limited  (3)
  • Miscellanea INGV  (3)
Collection
  • Articles  (6)
Years
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-06-07
    Description: After the April 6th 2009 MW 6.3 (ML 5.9) L'Aquila earthquake (central Italy), we re-measured more than 100 km of high-precision levelling lines in the epicentral area. The joint inversion of the levelling measurements with InSAR and GPS measurements, allowed us to derive new coseismic and post-seismic slip distributions and to de- scribe, with high resolution details on surface displacements, the activation and the slip distribution of a second- ary fault during the aftershock sequence that struck the Campotosto area (major event MW 5.2). Coseismic slip on the Paganica fault occurred on one main asperity, while the afterslip distribution shows a more complex pattern, occurring on three main patches, including both slips on the shallow portions and on the deeper parts of the rup- ture plane. The comparison between coseismic and post-seismic slip distributions strongly suggests that afterslip was triggered at the edges of the coseismic asperity. The activation of a segment of the Campotosto fault during the aftershock sequence, with a good correlation between the estimated slipping area, moment release and distribution of aftershocks, raises the opportunity to discuss the local seismic hazard following the occurrence of the 2009 L'Aquila mainshock. The Campotosto fault appears capable of generating earthquakes as large as his- torical events in the region (M N 6.5) or as small as the ones associated with the 2009 sequence. In the case that the Campotosto fault is accumulating a significant portion of the current interseismic deformation, the 2009 MW N 5 events will have released only a small amount of the accumulated elastic strain, and then a significant hazard still remains in the area. Continuing geodetic monitoring and a densification of the GPS networks in the region are therefore needed to estimate the tectonic loading across the different recognized active fault systems in this part of the Apennines.
    Description: Published
    Description: 168-185
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: High-precision leveling; InSAR; GPS; Earthquake source; Normal faulting; Seismic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: In this work, we tackle the problem of seismic hazard at Etna deriving from the recurrent seismogenic activity of local faults, by adopting two independent methods based on probabilistic approaches. We assess the hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity and represent the occurrence probability calculated for different exposure times both on maps and at fault scale. Seismic hazard maps obtained by applying the “site approach” through the SASHA code and a new probabilistic attenuation model, indicate the eastern flank of the volcano as the most hazardous, with expected intensity (Iexp) in 50 years (i.e. the standard exposure time adopted in the seismic regulations) ranging from degrees IX to X EMS. In shorter exposure periods (20, 10, 5 years), values of Iexp up to IX are also reached in the same area, but they are clearly determined by the earthquakes generated by the Timpe fault system. In order to quantify the contribution of local seismogenic sources to the hazard of the region, we reconstruct the seismic history of each fault and calculate with SASHA the probability that earthquakes of a given intensity may be generated in different exposure times. Results confirm the high level of hazard due to the S. Tecla, Moscarello and Fiandaca faults especially for earthquakes of moderate intensity, i.e. VI≤I0≤VII, with probabilities respectively exceeding 50% and 20% in 10 years, and 30% and 10% in 5 years. Occurrence probability of major events (I0≥VIII) at the fault scale has also been investigated by statistics on intertimes. Under stationary assumptions we obtain a probability of 6.8% in 5 years for each structure; by introducing the time-dependency (time elapsed since the last event occurred on each fault) through a BPT model, we identify the Moscarello and S. Tecla faults as the most probable sources to be activated in the next 5 years (2013–2017). This result may represent a useful indication to establish priority criteria for actions aimed at reducing seismic risk at a local scale.
    Description: Published
    Description: 158-169
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Macroseismic intensity ; Seismic history ; Occurrence probability ; Time-dependent renewal process ; Individual sources ; Seismic hazard ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: Natural disasters, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, have strong effects on the socioeconomic well-being of countries and their people. The consequences of these events can lead to complex cascades of related incidents, and in more serious contexts they can threaten our basic survivability. The problem of the seismic risk is a well-known issue at Etna due to the high-intensities volcano-tectonic earthquakes that frequently damage the very populated flanks of the volcano. In the framework of the european UPStrat-MAFA project, seismic hazard was performed following the probabilistic approach (PSHA) based on historical macroseismic data, by using the SASHA code [D’Amico and Albarello, 2008]. This approach uses intensity site observations to compute the seismic history for each investigated locality; the results, are expressed in terms of maximum intensity expected in a given exposure time, for exceedance probability thresholds. The seismic site histories were reconstructed from the database of macroseismic observation related to the historical catalogue of Mt. Etna from 1832 to 2013 [CMTE, 2014], implemented by “spot” observations as far back as 1600 [Azzaro and Castelli, 2014]. To improve the completeness of the site seismic histories, the dataset of the observed intensities was integrated with ‘virtual’ values, calculated according to attenuation laws. The attenuation model applied is based on Bayesian statistics performed on the Etna dataset [Rotondi et al., 2013], and provides the probabilistic distribution of the intensity at a given site. The hazard maps, calculated using a grid spaced 1 km, shows that for short exposure times (10 and 30 years, Figure 1a), volcano-tectonic earthquakes are the main source of shaking for the area. In particular localities in the eastern flank of the volcano have very high probabilities to suffer damage at least of VII degree in the next 30 years. Moreover, the de-aggregation analysis between magnitude vs seismic source demonstrates that S. Tecla fault (STF in Figure 1b) is one of the structures that mostly contribute to the hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: Nicolosi, Italy
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: open
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Extended abstract
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-03-01
    Description: In this paper, we apply a probabilistic procedure to model the attenuation of the macroseismic intensity in the Mt. Etna region, which allows estimating probabilistic seismic scenarios. Starting from the local earthquake catalogue, we select a dataset of 47 events having epicentral intensity I0 from VI to IX–X EMS, and update the model parameters previously achieved for Italy according to the Bayesian paradigm. For each class of epicentral intensity I0, we then estimate the probability distribution of the intensity at a site conditioned on the epicentre-site distance through a binomial-beta model, under the assumption of a point seismic source and isotropic decay (circular). The mode of the distribution is taken as the expected intensity Is at that site. Since the strongest earthquakes show a preferential propagation of shaking along the fault strike and a rapid decrease in the perpendicular direction, we also consider the anisotropic decay (elliptical) of the intensity due to a linear source (finite fault). We therefore transform the plane so that the ellipse has the length of the fault rupture as maximum axis and its strike as azimuth is changed into a circle with fixed diameter; then we apply the probabilistic model obtained for the isotropic case to the modified data. The entire calculation procedure is implemented in the software PROSCEN which, given the location and the epicentral intensity (and eventually the fault parameters) of the earthquake to be simulated, generates the probabilistic seismic scenario according to the isotropic and anisotropic models of attenuation. The results can be plotted on grid maps representing (1) the intensity that can be exceeded with a fixed probability, or (2) the probability of exceeding a fixed intensity value. The first representation may also find application in seismic monitoring at Etna volcano, in order to produce real-time intensity ShakeMaps based on the instrumental parameters calculated by the automatic earthquake processing system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 149-157
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Macroseismic intensity ; Attenuation Probability distribution ; Source models ; Seismic scenario ; Mt. Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Project SIGMA (Sistema Integrato di sensori in ambiente cloud per la Gestione Multirischio Avanzata) arises from the fields of Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) and advanced applications for the control, monitoring and management of high-risk processes of natural and social origin. SIGMA is a multilevel architecture whose main aim is the acquisition, integration and processing of heterogeneous data from different sources (seismic, volcanic, meteorologic, hydric, pluvial, car traffic, marine traffic, and so on) to manage and elaborate risk mitigation strategies which are important for the emergency management planning. Within the several experimental activities included in the project, there is the designing and realization of a prototype of application platform specialized to provide the operating procedures and software to the public administrations and the industrial companies, for constantly monitoring both the anthropic and natural phenomena in Sicily. In this framework, of course, the seismic risk analysis plays a very important role since Sicily is one of the Italian regions with high seismic risk. Seismic risk assessment may be approached in two different ways: i) as average seismic risk of the buildings and facilities in question during the period considered, combining the vulnerability of different building types and the seismic hazard for the site, which are then expressed in terms of the effects of the events derived from an earthquake catalogue that exceed a specified threshold during a given period; ii) as estimated damage of the buildings and the critical facilities using a scenario input described in terms of the source parameters of the hypocenter as location, magnitude, and so on. Here we deal with the hazard calculation through the code CRISIS (Ordaz, Aguilar and Arboleda) and with the code PROSCEN (PRObabilistic SCENario, [Rotondi and Zonno, 2010]) to obtain earthquake scenario to be used in the latter approach. Indeed, an earthquake scenario is a planning tool that helps decision makers to visualize the specific impact of an earthquake based on the scientific knowledge. An earthquake scenario creates a picture that the members of community can recognize and, at the same time, improves the communication between the scientific, emergency management and policy communities to seismic risk reduction.
    Description: Published
    Description: Nicolosi, Italy
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: open
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Extended abstract
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2019-01-24
    Description: The advent of UV cameras has recently paved the way to volcanic SO2 flux observations of much improved temporal and spatial resolution, and has thus contributed to expanding use and utility of SO2 fluxes in volcano monitoring. Recently, the first examples of permanent UV camera systems have appeared that are now opening the way to routine fully automated monitoring of the volcanic SO2 flux at high-rate, and continuously (daily hours only). In 2014, using funding from the FP7-ERC project “Bridge” (http://www.bridge.unipa.it/), we deployed a network of 4 permanent UV cameras at Etna and Stromboli volcanoes (Sicily) that has been operating regularly since then. Using a suite of custom-built codes, data streamed by the UV camera are automatically processed and telemetered, allowing nearly real-time visualization and analysis of SO2 fluxes. Here, we summarise the key results obtained during the last 5 years of continuous observations (2014-2018) to demonstrate potentials and challenges in real-time continuous SO2 flux monitoring with UV cameras. We show that the spatially resolved SO2 flux time-series delivered by the UV camera allow effectively tracking migration in volcanic activity from the Central to New South-East Crater (Etna), and shifts in degassing activity along the crater terrace (Stromboli). At both volcanoes, the high temporal of UV cameras allows capturing the escalation in active (strombolian) SO2 degassing that typically precedes onset of paroxysmal (Etna in 2014-2016) or effusive (Stromboli in 2014) activity, and to quantify for the first time the syn- explosive SO2 budget for larger-scale explosions, including 2 paroxysmal lava fountains (Etna) and 1 major explosion (Stromboli). We finally demonstrate the ability of our automatic camera systems to capture temporal changes in SO2 flux regime, and thus to “live” monitoring degassing and eruptive behaviors at active volcanoes.
    Description: Published
    Description: Napoli
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Keywords: UV Camera ; SO2 Flux Monitoring ; Etna ; Stromboli
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Conference paper
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