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  • 1
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    Ground-Motion Variability for Single Site and Single Source through Deterministic Stochastic Method Simulations: Implications for PSHA (2017)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-03-23
    Description: The ground-motion median and standard deviation of empirical ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are usually poorly constrained in the near-source region due to the general lack of strong-motion records. Here we explore the use of a deterministic–stochastic simulation technique, specifically tailored to reproduce directivity effects, to evaluate the expected ground motion and its variability at a near-source site, and seek a strategy to overcome the known GMPEs limitations. To this end, we simulated a large number of equally likely scenario events for three earthquake magnitudes ( M w  7.0, 6.0, and 5.0) and various source-to-site distances. The variability of the explored synthetic ground motion is heteroscedastic, with smaller values for larger earthquakes. The standard deviation is comparable with empirical estimates for smaller events and reduces by 30%–40% for stronger earthquakes. We then illustrate how to incorporate directivity effects into probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). This goal is pursued by calibrating a set of synthetic GMPEs and reducing their aleatory variability (~50%) by including a predictive directivity term that depends on the apparent stress parameter obtained through the simulation method. Our results show that, for specific source-to-site configurations, the nonergodic PSHA is very sensitive to the additional epistemic uncertainty that may augment the exceedance probabilities when directivity effects are maximized. The proposed approach may represent a suitable way to compute more accurate hazard estimates. Electronic Supplement: Histograms of synthetic peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and peak ground velocities (PGVs).
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 2
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    Seismogenic sources of the Adriatic domain (2012)
    Elsevier Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present an overview of the seismogenic source model of the Adriatic domain included in the latest version of the DISS database (http://diss.rm.ingv.it/diss/) and in the European SHARE database (http://diss.rm.ingv.it/SHARE/). The model consists of Composite and Individual Seismogenic Sources located inside and along the margins of the Adria plate. In order to locate and parameterize the sources, we integrated a wide set of geological, geophysical, seismological and geodynamic data, either available from published literature or resulting from our own field work, seismic profile interpretations and numerical modelling studies. We grouped the sources into five regions based on geometrical and kinematic homogeneity criteria. Seismogenic sources of the Central Western Adriatic, North-Eastern Adriatic, Eastern Adriatic and Central Adriatic regions belong to the Northern Apennines, External Dinarides and offshore domains, respectively. They are characterized by NWeSE strike, reverse to oblique kinematics and shallow crustal seismogenic depth. Seismogenic sources of the Southern Western Adriatic region instead are EeW striking, dextral strike-slip faults, cutting both the upper and lower crust. The fastest moving seismogenic sources are the most southern thrusts of the Eastern Adriatic and the strike-slip sources of the Southern Western Adriatic, while the seismogenic sources of the Central Adriatic exhibit the lowest slip rates. Estimates of maximum magnitude are generally in good agreement with the historical and instrumental earthquake records, except for the North-Eastern Adriatic region, where seismogenic sources exhibit a potential for large earthquakes even though no strong events have been reported or registered. All sources included in the database are fully geometrically and kinematically parameterized and can be incorportaed in seismic hazard calculations and earthquake or tsunami scenario simulations.
    Description: Published
    Description: 191-213
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Active tectonics ; Seismogenic sources ; Apennines ; External Dinarides ; Adriatic domain ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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