ALBERT

Description: In recent years, a novel proxy for the past occurrence of Arctic sea ice has been proposed that is based on the variable marine sedimentary abundance of an organic geochemical lipid derived from sea ice diatoms in the spring. This lipid, termed IP25 (Ice Proxy with 25 carbon atoms), is a highly branched isoprenoid mono-unsaturated alkene that appears to be sufficiently stable in sediments to permit meaningful palaeo sea ice reconstructions to be carried out over short- to long-term timescales. Since the first proposed use of IP25 as a proxy for palaeo sea ice by Belt et al. (2007), a number of laboratories have measured this biomarker in Arctic sediments and it is anticipated that research activity in this area will increase further in the future. The content of this review is divided into a number of sections. Firstly, we describe the scientific basis for the IP25 proxy and its initial discovery in Arctic sea ice, sedimenting particles and sediments. Secondly, we summarise the relatively few studies that have, to date, concentrated on examining the factors that influence the production and fate of IP25 and we identify some areas of future research that need to be addressed in order to improve our understanding of IP25 data obtained from sedimentary analyses. What is clear at this stage, however, it that the presence of IP25 in Arctic marine sediments appears to represent a proxy measure of past seasonal sea ice rather than permanent or multi-year ice conditions. Thirdly, we highlight the importance of rigorous analytical identification and quantification of IP25, especially if measurements of this biomarker are going to be used for quantitative sea ice reconstructions, rather than qualitative analyses alone (presence/absence). Fourthly, we review some recent attempts to make the interpretations of IP25 biomarker data more detailed and quantitative by combining sedimentary abundances with those of phytoplankton- and other sea ice-derived biomarkers. Thus, the bases for the so-called PIP25 and DIP25 indices are described, together with an overview of potential limitations, concluding that investigations into the use of these indices needs further research before their full potential can be realised. In the final section, we provide a summary of IP25-based palaeo sea ice reconstruction case studies performed to date. These case studies cover different Arctic regions and timescales spanning decades to tens of thousands of years.

Description: Microalgae are the main source of the omega-3 fatty acids eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), essential for the healthy development of most marine and terrestrial fauna including humans. Inverse correlations of algal EPA and DHA proportions (% of total fatty acids) with temperature have led to suggestions of a warming-induced decline in the global production of these biomolecules and an enhanced importance of high latitude organisms for their provision. The cold Arctic Ocean is a potential hotspot of EPA and DHA production, but consequences of global warming are unknown. Here, we combine a full-seasonal EPA and DHA dataset from the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO), with results from 13 previous field studies and 32 cultured algal strains to examine five potential climate change effects; ice algae loss, community shifts, increase in light, nutrients, and temperature. The algal EPA and DHA proportions were lower in the ice-covered CAO than in warmer peripheral shelf seas, which indicates that the paradigm of an inverse correlation of EPA and DHA proportions with temperature may not hold in the Arctic. We found no systematic differences in the summed EPA and DHA proportions of sea ice versus pelagic algae, and in diatoms versus non-diatoms. Overall, the algal EPA and DHA proportions varied up to four-fold seasonally and 10-fold regionally, pointing to strong light and nutrient limitations in the CAO. Where these limitations ease in a warming Arctic, EPA and DHA proportions are likely to increase alongside increasing primary production, with nutritional benefits for a non-ice-associated food web.

Description: In order to obtain new insight into the reliability of the ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), we compare the ensemble spread-error relationship obtained from an observation-based verification to the one obtained from an analysis-based verification. Observations used in this study are mainly radiosonde temperatures and radiance measurements from the AMSU-A channel 5 microwave temperature sounder. The observation operators from the 4D-Var data assimilation scheme are used to map the forecasts into observation space. In “observation-space”, observed radiances are compared with forecast radiances, derived from the ensemble's atmospheric profiles of temperature, gas concentrations, cloud, and surface properties using the “RTTOV” radiative transfer code. The observation-space assessment yields different results than the analysis-based assessment in the extra-tropics for short-range forecasts (1-day), and in the tropics in general. In the extra-tropics, for 5-day forecasts the discrepancy between the analysis-based and observation-based verification is small and the ensemble variances are quite reliable. The observation-based diagnostic indicate that the stochastic model error schemes contribute to the well-tuned ensemble spread in the extra-tropics, but can degrade the reliability of the ensemble in the tropics. It is suggested that observation-based diagnostics should be used more routinely to diagnose the ensemble performance, and help diagnosing the effectiveness of model error schemes and estimating the amplitude of the initial perturbations.

Description: Mutnovsky Volcano, located in Kamchatka, Russia, is a young volcano that has formed a series of four overlapping stratocones over its approximately 80 ka history. Erupted products at Mutnovsky range in composition from basalts to dacites; basalts are the most common. In this study, melt inclusions from representative samples of all erupted compositions from all four eruptive centers were analyzed to investigate the causes of the compositional heterogeneity, melt evolution, and pre-eruptive magma dynamics. Melt inclusions from Mutnovsky were sampled in olivine, plagioclase, orthopyroxene, and clinopyroxene. The melt inclusion data represent a wide range of melt compositions, from basalt through rhyolite. Geochemical modeling of melt inclusion data, combined with field evidence and chemical zoning of plagioclase phenocrysts, indicates that fractional crystallization and magma mixing produced the range of erupted bulk rock compositions. The measured variability of melt inclusion compositions in each host mineral phase indicates that different host minerals trapped unique melts that evolved separately from one another. The melt inclusion data suggest that individual melt portions evolved by fractional crystallization, perhaps in different magma chambers, within the Mutnovsky plumbing system, and were mixed prior to eruption. Our data do not indicate whether the mixing events were the cause of eruption or are simply the manifestation of the eruption process. Melt inclusions trapped in plagioclase, clinopyroxene, orthopyroxene and olivine phenocrysts represent a wide range of melt compositions, from basalt through rhyolite. Melt inclusion data, combined with field evidence and chemical zoning of plagioclase phenocrysts, indicate that fractional crystallization and magma mixing produced the range of erupted bulk rock compositions. The melt inclusion data suggest that individual melt portions evolved by fractional crystallization, perhaps in different magma chambers, within the Mutnovsky plumbing system, and were mixed prior to eruption.

Description: During extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TC) reduced predictability for the midlatitude flow is often observed. In this study we assess the sensitivity of the midlatitude flow response to ET. To this end, a simple novel metric, the “equivalent forecast hour difference”, is introduced and applied to experimental simulations for eight recent ET events, in which the TC has been removed or relocated. Early during ET, the midlatitude flow response is sensitive to ridgebuilding directly downstream of the transitioning TC. In cases with strong ridgebuilding and Rossby wave triggering, the sensitivity remains high. The midlatitude flow response is even more sensitive to error in the initial position of the TC. This study newly quantifies the high degree of sensitivity of the downstream midlatitude flow response to ET. It corroborates the need for correct tropical cyclogenesis and TC track forecasts for improving midlatitude numerical weather prediction during ET.

Description: Geochemical, mineralogical and biological indicators preserved in sediments are widely used to reconstruct past climate change, but proxies differ in the degree to which their utility as climate indicators has been validated via laboratory experiments, modern spatial calibrations, or down-core comparisons with instrumental climate data. Multi-proxy studies provide another means of evaluating interpretations of proxies. This paper presents a multi-proxy assessment comparing 19 sub-centennially resolved late Holocene proxy records, covering the period 300–1900 AD, from seven Icelandic marine and lacustrine core sites. We employ simple statistical comparisons between proxy reconstructions to evaluate their correlations over time and, ultimately, their utility as proxies for regional climate. Proxies examined include oxygen isotopic composition of benthic and planktonic foraminifera, abundance of the sea-ice biomarker IP 25 , allochthonous quartz in marine sediments (a proxy for drift ice around Iceland), marine carbonate abundance, total organic carbon concentration, chironomid assemblages, lacustrine biogenic silica and carbon/nitrogen ratios in lake sediments. Most of the examined proxy records, including temperature and sea-ice proxies, correlate strongly with each other over multi-centennial timescales, and thus do appear to record changes in regional climate. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Description: Abstract Holocene paleoceanographic reconstructions along the North Iceland Shelf have employed a variety of sea surface temperature and sea ice proxies. However, these surface proxies tend to have a seasonal bias toward spring/summer and thus only provide a discrete snapshot of surface conditions during one season. Furthermore, sea surface temperature proxies can be influenced by additional confounding variables resulting in markedly different Holocene temperature reconstructions. Here, we expand Iceland's marine paleoclimate toolkit with TEX86L: a temperature proxy based on the distribution of archaeal glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraether (GDGT) lipids. We develop a local Icelandic calibration from 21 surface sediment samples covering a wide environmental gradient across Iceland's insular shelves. Locally calibrated GDGT results demonstrate that (1) TEX86L reflects winter subsurface (0–200 m) temperatures on the North Iceland Shelf and (2) our calibration produces more realistic temperature estimates with substantially lower uncertainty (S.E. ±4 °C) over global calibrations. We then apply this new calibration to a high‐resolution marine sediment core (last millennium) collected from the central NIS with age control constrained by 14C‐dated mollusks. To test the veracity of the GDGT subsurface temperatures, we analyze quartz and calcite wt% and a series of highly branched isoprenoid alkenes, including the sea ice biomarker IP25, from the same core. The sediment records demonstrate that the development of thick sea ice during the Little Ice Age warmed the subsurface due to winter insulation. Importantly, this observation reflects a seasonal component of the sea ice/ocean feedback to be considered for the nonlinear cooling of the Little Ice Age in and around Iceland.