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  • 1
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    High‐Intensity Assignments for the 22 February 2011 M w  6.2 Christchurch, Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake: A Contribution toward Understanding the Severe Damage Caused by This Event (2019)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: 〈span〉〈div〉ABSTRACT〈/div〉This article presents modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data for the 22 February 2011 Mw 6.2 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake. These data include intensity levels above MMI 8 that have not been assigned previously. Two sources of data have been used in this research: GeoNet’s “Felt Classic” online questionnaires and felt reports gathered during a field study in Christchurch in February 2013. Taken together, these sets of data provided 331 valid (i.e., with all the needed information) felt reports in areas of MMI 8 or above, with 299 (90%) of the reports used to assign MMI levels above 8.This article presents a more detailed picture of the geographical damage distribution of this earthquake than has previously been available. The data differentiate damage in the center of Christchurch, with 8 communities assigned a community MMI (CMMI) of 9, 11 communities a CMMI of 10, and 8 communities a CMMI of 11, which is the maximum possible intensity in the New Zealand MMI scale, and a level of intensity not previously reported in New Zealand (〈a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/srl#rf6"〉Dowrick 〈span〉et al.〈/span〉, 2008〈/a〉).The geographical damage distribution for Christchurch has been updated for intensities below MMI 8. This was done using a recently developed method that groups intensity data and allows intensities to be aggregated for a community and a single value assigned. Comparisons between MMI and peak ground velocity using the CMMI data and two ground‐motion intensity correlation equations (GMICEs) indicate an underestimation of MMI when using the GMICEs and the need to review New Zealand’s GMICE.〈/span〉
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 2
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    Erosion Rates for Pinnacles Formed in Soft Sediments and Implications for Constraining Seismic-Hazard Models (2015)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-01
    Description: We provide estimates of the rates of natural modification of badlands pinnacles formed in soft sediments at two sites in New Zealand and assess the utility of pinnacles for constraining seismic-hazard models. One of the sites is in a humid temperate environment, and the other is in a semiarid environment. Rates of pinnacle modification of 30–270 mm/yr (equivalent to 3–27 m/century) are estimated by comparison of images acquired one-to-two decades apart. The primary mode of modification is the progressive narrowing of the pinnacle column by precipitation-induced erosion, along with consequent loss of height as the columns become thin and unstable. Additional damage may have been produced by earthquake shaking for specific pinnacles, but in general this is likely to be trivial, given that (1) estimates of the levels of peak ground acceleration (PGA) required to shake down the pinnacles at the two sites are at least a factor of 5–13 greater than the PGAs predicted or measured from regional earthquakes during the time periods of observation (in other words they would only be significantly damaged by major local earthquakes) and (2) a fragile pinnacle has actually formed in the time periods of observation. The pinnacle modification rates are rapid enough that they would not have existed one-to-two centuries ago or would have been of substantially different geometries. As such, pinnacles are unlikely to be useful for constraining seismic-hazard models for return periods greater than a few decades, at least in the context of the New Zealand environment.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 3
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    High‐Intensity Assignments for the 22 February 2011 M w  6.2 Christchurch, Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake: A Contribution toward Understanding the Severe Damage Caused by This Event (2019)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: 〈span〉〈div〉ABSTRACT〈/div〉This article presents modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) data for the 22 February 2011 Mw 6.2 Christchurch, New Zealand, earthquake. These data include intensity levels above MMI 8 that have not been assigned previously. Two sources of data have been used in this research: GeoNet’s “Felt Classic” online questionnaires and felt reports gathered during a field study in Christchurch in February 2013. Taken together, these sets of data provided 331 valid (i.e., with all the needed information) felt reports in areas of MMI 8 or above, with 299 (90%) of the reports used to assign MMI levels above 8.This article presents a more detailed picture of the geographical damage distribution of this earthquake than has previously been available. The data differentiate damage in the center of Christchurch, with 8 communities assigned a community MMI (CMMI) of 9, 11 communities a CMMI of 10, and 8 communities a CMMI of 11, which is the maximum possible intensity in the New Zealand MMI scale, and a level of intensity not previously reported in New Zealand (〈a href="https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/srl#rf6"〉Dowrick 〈span〉et al.〈/span〉, 2008〈/a〉).The geographical damage distribution for Christchurch has been updated for intensities below MMI 8. This was done using a recently developed method that groups intensity data and allows intensities to be aggregated for a community and a single value assigned. Comparisons between MMI and peak ground velocity using the CMMI data and two ground‐motion intensity correlation equations (GMICEs) indicate an underestimation of MMI when using the GMICEs and the need to review New Zealand’s GMICE.〈/span〉
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 4
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    Consideration and Propagation of Epistemic Uncertainties in New Zealand Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis (2012)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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    Publication Date: 2012-08-01
    Description: This article presents results from the consideration of epistemic uncertainties in New Zealand (NZ) probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis. Uncertainties in ground-motion prediction are accounted for via multiple ground-motion prediction equations within the logic-tree framework. Uncertainties in the fault-based seismicity of the earthquake rupture forecast due to uncertainties in fault geometry, slip parameters, and magnitude-scaling relationships are considered in a Monte Carlo simulation framework. Because of the present lack of fault-specific data quantifying uncertainties for many faults in NZ, representative values based on judgement and available data for NZ and foreign faults were utilized. Uncertainties in the modelling of background seismicity were not considered. The implications of the considered epistemic uncertainties in terms of earthquake magnitude–frequency distributions and probabilistic seismic-hazard analyses for two spectral acceleration ordinates, two soil classes, and two locations (Wellington and Christchurch) are examined. The results illustrate that, for the uncertainties considered, the variation in seismic hazard due to the adopted ground-motion prediction model is larger than that due to the uncertainties in the earthquake rupture forecast. Of the earthquake rupture forecast uncertainties considered, the magnitude-geometry scaling relationships was the most significant, followed by fault rupture length. Hence, the obtained results provide useful guidance on which modelling issues are the most critical in the reliability of seismic-hazard analyses for locations in NZ.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 5
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    National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update (2012)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-08-01
    Description: A team of earthquake geologists, seismologists, and engineering seismologists has collectively produced an update of the national probabilistic seismic hazard (PSH) model for New Zealand (National Seismic Hazard Model, or NSHM). The new NSHM supersedes the earlier NSHM published in 2002 and used as the hazard basis for the New Zealand Loadings Standard and numerous other end-user applications. The new NSHM incorporates a fault source model that has been updated with over 200 new onshore and offshore fault sources and utilizes new New Zealand-based and international scaling relationships for the parameterization of the faults. The distributed seismicity model has also been updated to include post-1997 seismicity data, a new seismicity regionalization, and improved methodology for calculation of the seismicity parameters. Probabilistic seismic hazard maps produced from the new NSHM show a similar pattern of hazard to the earlier model at the national scale, but there are some significant reductions and increases in hazard at the regional scale. The national-scale differences between the new and earlier NSHM appear less than those seen between much earlier national models, indicating that some degree of consistency has been achieved in the national-scale pattern of hazard estimates, at least for return periods of 475 years and greater. Online Material: Table of fault source parameters for the 2010 national seismic-hazard model.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 6
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    Selection of Earthquake Scaling Relationships for Seismic-Hazard Analysis (2013)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-11-22
    Description: A fundamentally important but typically abbreviated component of seismic-hazard analysis is the selection of earthquake scaling relationships. These are typically regressions of historical earthquake datasets, in which magnitude is estimated from parameters such as fault rupture length and area. The mix of historical data from different tectonic environments and the different forms of the regression equations can result in large differences in magnitude estimates for a given fault rupture length or area. We compile a worldwide set of regressions and make a first-order shortlisting of regressions according to their relevance to a range of tectonic regimes (plate tectonic setting and fault slip type) in existence around the world. Regression relevance is based largely on the geographical distribution, age, and quantity/quality of earthquake data used to develop them. Our compilation is limited to regressions of magnitude (or seismic moment) on fault rupture area or length, and our shortlisted regressions show a large magnitude range (up to a full magnitude unit) for a given rupture length or area across the various tectonic regimes. These large differences in magnitude estimates underline the importance of choosing regressions carefully for seismic-hazard application in different tectonic environments.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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  • 7
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    Completeness of the Paleoseismic Active-Fault Record in New Zealand (2016)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
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    Publication Date: 2016-11-04
    Description: Recent damaging earthquakes in New Zealand ruptured faults that were not known to be active. We analyzed New Zealand historical moderate-to-great magnitude earthquakes since 1845 ( M w  6–8.2) to estimate the level of completeness of earthquake fault sources in the National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) and the paleoseismic record. Our analysis assumes that the historical earthquakes are representative of the paleoseismic record and, due to the small number of events (45 M w ≥6), is qualitative. We find that about half of all historical earthquakes M w ≥7.0 ruptured faults that, based on today’s state of knowledge of active-fault locations, would not have been identified as active prior to the event. The majority of historical events on faults previously not identified as active were M w 〈7.3 and either did not displace the ground surface or were located in areas where the rates of erosion or burial exceed fault-slip rates. Incompleteness of active-fault sources in the present NSHM is the greatest for earthquake fault sources with long recurrence intervals of ≥10,000 yr. These inferred unidentified active faults will, in many cases, be located in low strain-rate areas, where they may make an important contribution to the seismic-hazard budget.
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 8
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    Shape of the Magnitude-Frequency Distribution for the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence from Integration of Seismological and Geological Data (2017)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-02-03
    Description: We combine geological and seismological data to describe the shape of the magnitude–frequency distribution for the Canterbury earthquake sequence. In doing so, we take the opportunity of the new datasets to address a long-standing debate in the literature as to whether the seismicity of individual faults or fault zones is best described by the Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relationship or the characteristic earthquake (CE) model. We find that the magnitude–frequency distribution for the entire composite fault zone of the Canterbury earthquake sequence is adequately described by the GR relationship when uncertainties in the GR curve (fitted to the instrumental catalog data) and the range of paleoseismically derived recurrence intervals for large (mainshock) earthquakes on the Greendale fault are collectively considered. In contrast, the magnitude–frequency distribution for the smaller area of the Greendale fault is better described by the CE model. The difference is one of scale, in that the composite fault zone represented by the Canterbury earthquake sequence shows a GR distribution, whereas individual faults within the zone show CE distributions. Definition of magnitude–frequency distributions for seismic-hazard modeling must therefore take scaling considerations into account, rather than simply assuming that a single magnitude–frequency distribution shape is applicable to all fault definitions.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
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    An Earthquake Likelihood Model Based on Proximity to Mapped Faults and Cataloged Earthquakes (2012)
    Seismological Society of America (SSA)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-08-01
    Description: Known earthquake sources include mapped active faults and locations where historical earthquakes have occurred. We propose a long-term earthquake likelihood model that makes use of both types of sources but does not invoke the concepts of fault segmentation or characteristic earthquakes. The model has two components, one based on proximity to the locations of past earthquakes, taking into account their magnitudes, and another based on proximity to mapped faults, taking into account their slip rates. The Gutenberg–Richter law is invoked for earthquake magnitudes and an inverse power law for the diminution of earthquake rate density with distance from past earthquakes and mapped faults. The model is applied to the New Zealand region using the National Seismic Hazard Model fault-source model and the earthquake catalog since 1951. The parameters of each component are optimized for the period 1987–1996, and the rate density of the combined model is estimated as an optimal linear combination of the two components. In a test on the independent period from 1997–2006, the combined model has an information gain (log-likelihood increase) per earthquake of about 0.1 over each of the component models. The model is also optimized over the longer period 1987–2006 for comparison with other long-term models in the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing Centre.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
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    Modularised logic tree risk assessment method for carbon capture and storage projects (2009)
    Elsevier
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    Publication Date: 2009-02-01
    Electronic ISSN: 1876-6102
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Published by Elsevier
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