ALBERT

Description: Freeze/thaw (F/T) processes can be quite different under the various land surface types found in the complex tundra of the Arctic, such as polygonal tundra (wet center and dry rims), ponds, and thermokarst lakes. Proper simu- lation of these different processes is essential for accurate prediction of the release of greenhouse gases under a warm- ing climate scenario. In this study we have incorporated the water layer into a dynamic organic soil version of the Terres- trial Ecosystem Model (DOS-TEM), having first verified and validated the model. Results showed that (1) the DOS-TEM was very efficient and its results compared well with analyti- cal solutions for idealized cases, and (2) despite a number of limitations and uncertainties in the modeling, the simulations compared reasonably well with in situ measurements from polygon rims, polygon centers (with and without water), and lakes on Samoylov Island, Siberia, indicating the suitability of the DOS-TEM for simulating the various F/T processes. Sensitivity tests were performed on the effects of water depth and our results indicated that both water and snow cover are very important in the simulated thermal processes, for both polygon centers and lakes. We therefore concluded that the polygon rims and polygon centers (with various maximum water depths) should be considered separately, and that the dynamics of water depth in both polygons and lakes should be taken into account when simulating thermal processes for methane emission studies.

Description: Boreal forests in permafrost regions make up around one-third of the global forest cover and are an essential component of regional and global climate patterns. Further, climatic change can trigger extensive ecosystem shifts such as the partial disappearance of near-surface permafrost or changes to the vegetation structure and composition. Therefore, our aim is to understand how the interactions between the vegetation, permafrost, and the atmosphere stabilize the forests and the underlying permafrost. Existing model setups are often static or are not able to capture important processes such as the vertical structure or the leaf physiological properties. There is a need for a physically-based model with a robust radiative transfer scheme through the canopy. A one-dimensional land surface model (CryoGrid) is adapted for the application in vegetated areas by coupling a multilayer canopy model (CLM-ml v0; Community Land Model) and is used to reproduce the energy transfer and thermal regime at a study site (63.18946∘ N, 118.19596∘ E) in mixed boreal forest in eastern Siberia. An extensive comparison between measured and modeled energy balance variables reveals a satisfactory model performance justifying its application to investigate the thermal regime; surface energy balance; and the vertical exchange of radiation, heat, and water in this complex ecosystem. We find that the forests exert a strong control on the thermal state of permafrost through changing the radiation balance and snow cover phenology. The forest cover alters the surface energy balance by inhibiting over 90 % of the solar radiation and suppressing turbulent heat fluxes. Additionally, our simulations reveal a surplus in longwave radiation trapped below the canopy, similar to a greenhouse, which leads to a magnitude in storage heat flux comparable to that simulated at the grassland site. Further, the end of season snow cover is 3 times greater at the forest site, and the onset of the snow-melting processes are delayed.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. Understanding the future evolution of permafrost requires a better understanding of its climatological past. This requires permafrost models to efficiently simulate the thermal dynamics of permafrost over the past centuries to millennia, taking into account highly uncertain soil and snow properties. In this study, we present a computationally efficient numerical permafrost model which satisfactorily reproduces the current ground temperatures and active layer thicknesses of permafrost in the Arctic and their trends over recent centuries. The performed simulations provide insights into the evolution of permafrost since the 18th century and show that permafrost on the North American continent is subject to early degradation, while permafrost on the Eurasian continent is relatively stable over the investigated 300-year period. Permafrost warming since industrialization has occurred primarily in three “hotspot” regions in northeastern Canada, northern Alaska, and, to a lesser extent, western Siberia. We find that the extent of areas with a high probability (p3 m>0.9) of near-surface permafrost (i.e., 3 m of permafrost within the upper 10 m of the subsurface) has declined substantially since the early 19th century, with loss accelerating during the last 50 years. Our simulations further indicate that short-term climate cooling due to large volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere in some cases favors permafrost aggradation within the uppermost 10 m of the ground, but the effect only lasts for a relatively short period of a few decades. Despite some limitations, e.g., with respect to the representation of vegetation, the presented model shows great potential for further investigation of the climatological past of permafrost, especially in conjunction with paleoclimate modeling. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: The CryoGrid community model is a flexible toolbox for simulating the ground thermal regime and the ice-water balance for permafrost and glaciers, extending a well-established suite of permafrost models (CryoGrid 1, 2, and 3). The CryoGrid community model can accommodate a wide variety of application scenarios, which is achieved by fully modular structures through object-oriented programming. Different model components, characterized by their process representations and parameterizations, are realized as classes (i.e., objects) in CryoGrid. Standardized communication protocols between these classes ensure that they can be stacked vertically. For example, the CryoGrid community model features several classes with different complexity for the seasonal snow cover, which can be flexibly combined with a range of classes representing subsurface materials, each with their own set of process representations (e.g., soil with and without water balance, glacier ice). We present the CryoGrid architecture as well as the model physics and defining equations for the different model classes, focusing on one-dimensional model configurations which can also interact with external heat and water reservoirs. We illustrate the wide variety of simulation capabilities for a site on Svalbard, with point-scale permafrost simulations using, e.g., different soil freezing characteristics, drainage regimes, and snow representations, as well as simulations for glacier mass balance and a shallow water body. The CryoGrid community model is not intended as a static model framework but aims to provide developers with a flexible platform for efficient model development. In this study, we document both basic and advanced model functionalities to provide a baseline for the future development of novel cryosphere models.

Description: Long-Term measurements of permafrost temperatures do not provide a complete picture of the Arctic subsurface thermal regime. Regions with warmer permafrost often show little to no long-Term change in ground temperature due to the uptake and release of latent heat during freezing and thawing. Thus, regions where the least warming is observed may also be the most vulnerable to permafrost degradation. Since direct measurements of ice and liquid water contents in the permafrost layer are not widely available, thermal modeling of the subsurface plays a crucial role in understanding how permafrost responds to changes in the local energy balance. In this work, we first analyze trends in observed air and permafrost temperatures at four sites within the continuous permafrost zone, where we find substantial variation in the apparent relationship between long-Term changes in permafrost temperatures (0.02-0.16 Kyr-1) and air temperature (0.09-0.11 Kyr-1). We then apply recently developed Bayesian inversion methods to link observed changes in borehole temperatures to unobserved changes in latent heat and active layer thickness using a transient model of heat conduction with phase change. Our results suggest that the degree to which recent warming trends correlate with permafrost thaw depends strongly on both soil freezing characteristics and historical climatology. At the warmest site, a 9 m borehole near Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, modeled active layer thickness increases by an average of 13 ± 1 cmK-1 rise in mean annual ground temperature. In stark contrast, modeled rates of thaw at one of the colder sites, a borehole on Samoylov Island in the Lena River delta, appear far less sensitive to temperature change, with a negligible effect of 1 ± 1 cmK-1. Although our study is limited to just four sites, the results urge caution in the interpretation and comparison of warming trends in Arctic boreholes, indicating significant uncertainty in their implications for the current and future thermal state of permafrost.