ALBERT

Description: Here, global-scale frozen ground distribution from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) has been reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present day (pre-industrial; 0 kya) and the LGM (21 kya). This direct method was then compared to an earlier indirect method, which categorizes underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applying to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 kya showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map. The soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity around the border between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground among the models, partly due to varying subsurface processes, implementation, and settings. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the PMIP3 multi-model analysis through the direct (indirect) method was 26.0 (17.7) million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 15.1 (11.2) million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally frozen ground decreased from 34.5 (26.6) million km2 to 18.1 (16.0) million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but from other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble – improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology – also compared better to previous knowledge derived from geomorphological and geocryological evidence. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern climates will advance our understanding of the functionality and variability of the frozen ground subsystem in the global eco-climate system.

Description: A 180.17 m ice core was drilled at Aurora Peak in the central part of the Alaska Range, Alaska, in 2008 to allow reconstruction of centennial-scale climate change in the northern North Pacific. The 10 m depth temperature in the borehole was −2.2 °C, which corresponded to the annual mean air temperature at the drilling site. In this ice core, there were many melt–refreeze layers due to high temperature and/or strong insolation during summer seasons. We analyzed stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) and chemical species in the ice core. The ice core age was determined by annual counts of δD and seasonal cycles of Na+, and we used reference horizons of tritium peaks in 1963 and 1964, major volcanic eruptions of Mount Spurr in 1992 and Mount Katmai in 1912, and a large forest fire in 2004 as age controls. Here, we show that the chronology of the Aurora Peak ice core from 95.61 m to the top corresponds to the period from 1900 to the summer season of 2008, with a dating error of ± 3 years. We estimated that the mean accumulation rate from 1997 to 2007 (except for 2004) was 2.04 m w.eq. yr-1. Our results suggest that temporal variations in δD and annual accumulation rates are strongly related to shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDOI). The remarkable increase in annual precipitation since the 1970s has likely been the result of enhanced storm activity associated with shifts in the PDOI during winter in the Gulf of Alaska.

Description: A 180.17 m ice core was drilled at Aurora Peak in the central part of the Alaska Range, Alaska, in 2008 to allow reconstruction of centennial-scale climate change in the northern North Pacific. The 10 m-depth temperature in the borehole was −2.2 °C, which corresponded to annual mean air temperature at the drilling site. In this ice core, there were many melt-refrozen layers due to high temperature and/or strong insolation during summer seasons. We analyzed stable hydrogen isotopes (δD) and chemical species in the ice core. The ice core age was determined by annual counts of δD and seasonal cycles of Na+, and we used reference horizons of tritium peaks in 1963 and 1964, major volcanic eruptions of Mount Spurr in 1992 and Mount Katmai in 1912, and a large forest fire in 2004 as age controls. Here, we show that the chronology of the Aurora Peak ice core from 95.61 m w.eq. to the top corresponds to the period from 1900 to the summer season of 2008, with a dating error of ±3 years. We estimated that the mean accumulation rate from 1997 to 2007 (except for 2004) was 1.88 m w.eq per year. Our results suggest that temporal variation in δD and annual accumulation rates are strongly related to shifts in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDOI). The remarkable increase in annual precipitation since the 1970s has likely been the result of enhanced storm activity associated with shifts in the PDOI during winter in the Gulf of Alaska.

Description: Global-scale frozen ground distribution during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was reconstructed using multi-model ensembles of global climate models, and then compared with evidence-based knowledge and earlier numerical results. Modeled soil temperatures, taken from Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase III (PMIP3) simulations, were used to diagnose the subsurface thermal regime and determine underlying frozen ground types for the present-day (pre-industrial; 0 k) and the LGM (21 k). This direct method was then compared to the earlier indirect method, which categorizes the underlying frozen ground type from surface air temperature, applied to both the PMIP2 (phase II) and PMIP3 products. Both direct and indirect diagnoses for 0 k showed strong agreement with the present-day observation-based map, although the soil temperature ensemble showed a higher diversity among the models partly due to varying complexity of the implemented subsurface processes. The area of continuous permafrost estimated by the multi-model analysis was 25.6 million km2 for LGM, in contrast to 12.7 million km2 for the pre-industrial control, whereas seasonally, frozen ground increased from 22.5 million km2 to 32.6 million km2. These changes in area resulted mainly from a cooler climate at LGM, but other factors as well, such as the presence of huge land ice sheets and the consequent expansion of total land area due to sea-level change. LGM permafrost boundaries modeled by the PMIP3 ensemble-improved over those of the PMIP2 due to higher spatial resolutions and improved climatology-also compared better to previous knowledge derived from the geomorphological and geocryological evidences. Combinatorial applications of coupled climate models and detailed stand-alone physical-ecological models for the cold-region terrestrial, paleo-, and modern climates will advance our understanding of the functionality and variability of the frozen ground subsystem in the global eco-climate system.