ALBERT

Description: We here present the results from mobile measurements using two ground-based zenith viewing Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) instruments. The measurement was performed in a cross-section of the plume from the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) on 10 March 2006 as part of the MILAGRO field campaign. The two instruments operated in the UV and the visible wavelength region respectively and have been used to derive the differential vertical columns of HCHO and NO2 above the measurement route. This is the first time the mobile mini-DOAS instrument has been able to measure HCHO, one of the chemically most important and interesting gases in the polluted urban atmosphere. Using a mass-averaged wind speed and wind direction from the WRF model the instantaneous flux of HCHO and NO2 has been calculated from the measurements and the results are compared to the CAMx chemical model. The calculated flux through the measured cross-section was 1.9 (1.5–2.2) kg/s of HCHO and 4.4 (4.0–5.0) kg/s of NO2 using the UV instrument and 3.66 (3.63–3.73) kg/s of NO2 using the visible light instrument. The modeled values from CAMx for the outflow of both NO2 and HCHO, 1.1 and 3.6 kg/s, respectively, show a reasonable agreement with the measurement derived fluxes.

Description: The sensitivity of ozone production to precursor emissions was investigated under five different meteorological conditions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO field campaign using the gridded photochemical model CAMx driven by observation-nudged WRF meteorology. Precursor emissions were constrained by the comprehensive data from the field campaign and the routine ambient air quality monitoring network. Simulated plume mixing and transport were examined by comparing with measurements from the G-1 aircraft during the campaign. The observed concentrations of ozone precursors and ozone were reasonably well reproduced by the model. The effects of reducing precursor emissions on urban ozone production were performed for three representative emission control scenarios. A 50% reduction in VOC emissions led to 7 to 22 ppb decrease in daily maximum ozone concentrations, while a 50% reduction in NOx emissions leads to 4 to 21 ppb increase, and 50% reductions in both NOx and VOC emission decrease the daily maximum ozone concentrations up to 10 ppb. These results along with a chemical indicator analysis using the chemical production ratios of H2O2 to HNO3 demonstrate that the MCMA urban core region is VOC-limited for all meteorological episodes, which is consistent with the results from MCMA-2003 field campaign; however the degree of the VOC-sensitivity is higher during MCMA-2006 due to lower VOCs, lower VOC reactivity and moderately higher NOx emissions. Ozone formation in the surrounding mountain/rural area is mostly NOx-limited, but can be VOC-limited, and the range of the NOx-limited or VOC-limited areas depends on meteorology.

Description: China is the largest anthropogenic mercury emitter in the world, where primary nonferrous metal smelting is regarded as one of the most significant emission sources. In this study, atmospheric mercury emissions from primary zinc, lead and copper smelters in China between 2000–2010 were estimated using a technology-based methodology with comprehensive consideration of mercury concentration in concentrates, smelting processes, mercury removal efficiencies of air pollution control devices (APCDs) and the application percentage of a certain type of APCD combinations. Our study indicated that atmospheric mercury emissions from nonferrous metal smelters in 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2010 were 67.6, 100.1, 86.7, 80.6 and 72.5 t, respectively. In 2010, the amounts of mercury emitted into atmosphere were 39.4 ± 31.5, 30.6 ± 29.1, and 2.5 ± 1.1 t from primary zinc, lead and copper smelters, respectively. The largest amount of mercury was emitted from the Gansu province, followed by Henan, Yunnan, Hunan, Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi provinces. Hg2+, Hg0 and Hgp emissions from zinc smelters were 25.6, 11.8 and 1.97 t, respectively. The emissions percentages of Hg2+ and Hg0 were almost the same from lead and copper smelters. The average mercury removal efficiency was 90.5 ± 52.5%, 71.2 ± 63.7% and 91.8 ± 40.7% in zinc, lead, and copper smelters, respectively.

Description: To understand the causes of the past water cycle variations and the influence of climate variability on the streamflow, lake storage, and flood potential, we analyze the changes in streamflow and the underlying drivers in four typical watersheds (Gaosha, Meigang, Saitang, and Xiashan) within the Poyang Lake Basin, based on the meteorological observations at 79 weather stations, and datasets of streamflow and river level at four hydrological stations for the period of 1961-2000. The contribution of different climate factors to the change in streamflow in each watershed is estimated quantitatively using the water balance equations. Results show that in each watershed, the annual streamflow exhibits an increasing trend from 1961–2000. The increases in streamflow by 4.80 m3 s−1 yr−1 and 1.29 m3 s−1 yr−1 at Meigang and Gaosha, respectively, are statistically significant at the 5% level. The increase in precipitation is the biggest contributor to the streamflow increment in Meigang (3.79 m3 s−1 yr−1), Gaosha (1.12 m3 s−1 yr−1), and Xiashan (1.34 m3 s−1 yr−1), while the decrease in evapotranspiration is the major factor controlling the streamflow increment in Saitang (0.19 m3 s−1 yr−1). In addition, radiation and wind contribute more than actual vapor pressure and mean temperature to the changes in evapotranspiration and streamflow for the four watersheds. For revealing the possible change of streamflow due to the future climate change, we also investigate the projected precipitation and evapotranspiration from of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) under three greenhouse gases emission scenarios (SRESA1B, SRESA2 and SRESB1) for the period of 2061–2100. When the future changes in the soil water storage changes are assumed ignorable, the streamflow shows an uptrend with the projected increases in both precipitation and evapotranspiration (except for the SRESB1 scenario in Xiashan watershed) relative to the observed mean during 1961–2000. Furthermore, the largest increase in the streamflow is found at Meigang (+4.31%) and Xiashan (+3.84%) under the SRESA1B scenario, while the increases will occur at Saitang (+6.87%) and Gaosha (+5.15%) under the SRESB1 scenario.

Description: Water resources have a close relationship with climate. The changes of streamflow affect the exploitation and utilization of water resources directly, and the social security and the stability of ecological system. Meteorological observations at 79 weather stations, and datasets of streamflow and river level at 4 hydrological stations were collected to analyze the changes of streamflow and underlying drivers in four typical watersheds within Poyang Lake Basin during the period from 1961 to 2000. The contributions of different factors to the changes of streamflow in four typical watersheds were quantitatively quantified using water balance equation. Then, the possible future change of streamflow was assessed using precipitation and evaporation projected by different GCMs under three different emission scenarios, including medium greenhouse gases emission scenario (SRESA1B), high greenhouse gases emission scenario (SRESA2), and low greenhouse gases emission scenario (SRESB1). The change of streamflow exhibited different characteristics the four watersheds exist different increasing trends during 1961 to 2000. The increase in streamflow in Meigang and Gaosha watersheds was at the 5% significance level, with increasing rate of 4.80 m3 s−1 yr−1 and 1.29 m3 s−1 yr−1, respectively. The increase in precipitation is the biggest contributor to streamflow increment in Meigang Gaosha, and Xiashan watersheds, while the decrease in evaporation is the major explainer for streamflow increment in Saitang watershed. Radiation and wind have larger contributions than actual vapor pressure and mean temperature to evaporation and streamflow. If soil water storage will not change in the future, with the increasing precipitation and the decreasing evaporation (not including the SRESB1 in Xiashan watershed), the streamflow shows an uptrend. Furthermore, the largest increase of Meigang watershed (+4.13%) and Xiashan watershed (+3.84%) appear under SRESA1B scenario while the increase of Saitang watershed (+6.87%) and Gaosha watershed (+5.15%) in SRESB1 scenario.

Description: The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is uncertain. In addition, agriculture could influence above- and below-ground carbon storage. Development of models that represent agriculture is necessary to address these impacts. We have developed an approach to integrate agriculture representations for three crop types – maize, soybean, and spring wheat – into the coupled carbon–nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM), to help address these questions. Here we present the new model, CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two AmeriFlux sites in the United States, planted with maize and soybean. Seasonal carbon fluxes compared well with field measurements for soybean, but not as well for maize. CLM-Crop yields were comparable with observations in countries such as the United States, Argentina, and China, although the generality of the crop model and its lack of technology and irrigation made direct comparison difficult. CLM-Crop was compared against the standard CLM3.5, which simulates crops as grass. The comparison showed improvement in gross primary productivity in regions where crops are the dominant vegetation cover. Crop yields and productivity were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation, in agreement with other modeling studies. In case studies with the new crop model looking at impacts of residue management and planting date on crop yield, we found that increased residue returned to the litter pool increased crop yield, while reduced residue returns resulted in yield decreases. Using climate controls to signal planting date caused different responses in different crops. Maize and soybean had opposite reactions: when low temperature threshold resulted in early planting, maize responded with a loss of yield, but soybean yields increased. Our improvements in CLM demonstrate a new capability in the model – simulating agriculture in a realistic way, complete with fertilizer and residue management practices. Results are encouraging, with improved representation of human influences on the land surface and the potentially resulting climate impacts.

Description: Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool to explore how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental United States over approximately a 170 year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual plots growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored, compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5% and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.

Description: Cultivation of the terrestrial land surface can create either a source or sink of atmospheric CO2, depending on land management practices. The Community Land Model (CLM) provides a useful tool for exploring how land use and management impact the soil carbon pool at regional to global scales. CLM was recently updated to include representation of managed lands growing maize, soybean, and spring wheat. In this study, CLM-Crop is used to investigate the impacts of various management practices, including fertilizer use and differential rates of crop residue removal, on the soil organic carbon (SOC) storage of croplands in the continental United States over approximately a 170-year period. Results indicate that total US SOC stocks have already lost over 8 Pg C (10%) due to land cultivation practices (e.g., fertilizer application, cultivar choice, and residue removal), compared to a land surface composed of native vegetation (i.e., grasslands). After long periods of cultivation, individual subgrids (the equivalent of a field plot) growing maize and soybean lost up to 65% of the carbon stored compared to a grassland site. Crop residue management showed the greatest effect on soil carbon storage, with low and medium residue returns resulting in additional losses of 5 and 3.5%, respectively, in US carbon storage, while plots with high residue returns stored 2% more carbon. Nitrogenous fertilizer can alter the amount of soil carbon stocks significantly. Under current levels of crop residue return, not applying fertilizer resulted in a 5% loss of soil carbon. Our simulations indicate that disturbance through cultivation will always result in a loss of soil carbon, and management practices will have a large influence on the magnitude of SOC loss.

Description: The potential impact of climate change on agriculture is uncertain. In addition, agriculture could influence above- and below-ground carbon storage. Development of models that represent agriculture is necessary to address these impacts. We have developed an approach to integrate agriculture representations for three crop types – maize, soybean, and spring wheat – into the coupled carbon-nitrogen version of the Community Land Model (CLM), to help address these questions. Here we present the new model, CLM-Crop, validated against observations from two AmeriFlux sites in the United States, planted with maize and soybean. Seasonal carbon fluxes compared well with field measurements. CLM-Crop yields were comparable with observations in some regions, although the generality of the crop model and its lack of technology and irrigation made direct comparison difficult. CLM-Crop was compared against the standard CLM3.5, which simulates crops as grass. The comparison showed improvement in gross primary productivity in regions where crops are the dominant vegetation cover. Crop yields and productivity were negatively correlated with temperature and positively correlated with precipitation. In case studies with the new crop model looking at impacts of residue management and planting date on crop yield, we found that increased residue returned to the litter pool increased crop yield, while reduced residue returns resulted in yield decreases. Using climate controls to signal planting date caused different responses in different crops. Maize and soybean had opposite reactions: when low temperature threshold resulted in early planting, maize responded with a loss of yield, but soybean yields increased. Our improvements in CLM demonstrate a new capability in the model – simulating agriculture in a realistic way, complete with fertilizer and residue management practices. Results are encouraging, with improved representation of human influences on the land surface and the potentially resulting climate impacts.

Description: The sensitivity of ozone production to precursor emissions was investigated under five different meteorological conditions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO field campaign using the gridded photochemical model CAMx driven by observation-nudged WRF meteorology. Precursor emissions were constrained by the comprehensive data from the field campaign and the routine ambient air quality monitoring network. Simulated plume mixing and transport were examined by comparing with measurements from the G-1 aircraft during the campaign. The observed concentrations of ozone precursors and ozone were well reproduced by the model. The effects of reducing precursor emissions on urban ozone production were performed for three representative emission control strategies. A 50% reduction in VOC emissions led to 7 to 22 ppb decrease in daily maximum ozone concentrations, while a 50% reduction in NOx emissions leads to 4 to 21 ppb increase, and 50% reductions in both NOx and VOC emission decrease the daily maximum ozone concentrations up to 10 ppb. These results along with a chemical indicator analysis using the chemical production ratios of H2O2 to HNO3 demonstrate that the MCMA urban core region is VOC-limited for all meteorological episodes, which is consistent with the results from MCMA-2003 field campaign; however the degree of the VOC-sensitivity is higher in the MCMA-2006 due to lower VOC/NOx emission ratio and VOC reactivity. Ozone formation in the surrounding mountain/rural area is mostly NOx-limited, but can be VOC-limited, and the range of the NOx-limited or VOC-limited areas depends on meteorology.