ALBERT

Description: Well water level changes associated with magmatic unrest can be interpreted as a result of pore pressure changes in the aquifer due to crustal deformation, and so could provide constraints on the subsurface processes causing this strain. We use finite element analysis to demonstrate the response of aquifers to volumetric strain induced by pressurized magma reservoirs. Two different aquifers are invoked – an unconsolidated pyroclastic deposit and a vesicular lava flow – and embedded in an impermeable crust, overlying a magma chamber. The time-dependent, fully coupled models simulate crustal deformation accompanying chamber pressurization and the resulting hydraulic head changes as well as flow through the porous aquifer, i.e. porous flow. The simulated strain leads to centimetres (pyroclastic aquifer) to metres (lava flow aquifer) of hydraulic head changes; both strain and hydraulic head change with time due to substantial porous flow in the hydrological system. Well level changes are particularly sensitive to chamber volume, shape and pressurization strength, followed by aquifer permeability and the phase of the pore fluid. The depths of chamber and aquifer, as well as the aquifer's Young's modulus also have significant influence on the hydraulic head signal. While source characteristics, the distance between chamber and aquifer and the elastic stratigraphy determine the strain field and its partitioning, flow and coupling parameters define how the aquifer responds to this strain and how signals change with time. We find that generic analytical models can fail to capture the complex pre-eruptive subsurface mechanics leading to strain-induced well level changes, due to aquifer pressure changes being sensitive to chamber shape and lithological heterogeneities. In addition, the presence of a pore fluid and its flow have a significant influence on the strain signal in the aquifer and are commonly neglected in analytical models. These findings highlight the need for numerical models for the interpretation of observed well level signals. However, simulated water table changes do indeed mirror volumetric strain, and wells are therefore a valuable addition to monitoring systems that could provide important insights into pre-eruptive dynamics.

Description: Well water level changes associated with magmatic unrest can be interpreted as a result of pore pressure changes in the aquifer due to crustal deformation, and so could provide constraints on the subsurface processes causing this strain. We use Finite Element Analysis to demonstrate the response of aquifers to volumetric strain induced by pressurised magma reservoirs. Two different aquifers are invoked – an unconsolidated pyroclastic deposit and a vesicular lava flow – and embedded in an impermeable crust, overlying a magma chamber. The time-dependent, fully coupled models simulate crustal deformation accompanying chamber pressurisation and the resulting hydraulic head changes as well as porous flow in the aquifer. The simulated deformational strain leads to centimetres (pyroclastic aquifer) to meters (lava flow aquifer) of hydraulic head changes; both strain and hydraulic head change with time due to substantial porous flow in the hydrological system. Well level changes are particularly sensitive to chamber volume and shape, followed by chamber depth and the phase of the pore fluid. The Young's Modulus and permeability of the aquifer, as well as the strength of pressurisation also have significant influence on the hydraulic head signal. While source characteristics, the distance between chamber and aquifer and the elastic stratigraphy determine the strain field and its partitioning, flow and coupling parameters define how the aquifer responds to this strain and how signals change with time. We investigated a period of pre-eruptive head changes recorded at Usu volcano, Japan, where well data were interpreted using an analytical deformation model. We find that generic analytical models can fail to capture the complex pre-eruptive subsurface mechanics leading to well level changes, due to aquifer pressure changes being sensitive to chamber shape and lithological heterogeneities. In addition, the presence of a pore fluid and its flow have a significant influence on the strain signal in the aquifer and are commonly neglected in analytical models. These findings highlight the need for numerical models for the interpretation of observed well level signals. However, simulated water table changes do mirror volumetric strain and wells can therefore serve as comparatively cheap strain meters that could provide important insights into pre-eruptive dynamics.

Description: Ground deformation and gravity changes in restless calderas during periods of unrest can signal an impending eruption and thus must be correctly interpreted for hazard evaluation. It is critical to differentiate variation of geophysical observables related to volume and pressure changes induced by magma migration from shallow hydrothermal activity associated with hot fluids of magmatic origin rising from depth. In this paper we present a numerical model to evaluate the thermo-poroelastic response of the hydrothermal system in a caldera setting by simulating pore pressure and thermal expansion associated with deep injection of hot fluids (water and carbon dioxide). Hydrothermal fluid circulation is simulated using TOUGH2, a multicomponent multiphase simulator of fluid flows in porous media. Changes in pore pressure and temperature are then evaluated and fed into a thermo-poroelastic model (one-way coupling), which is based on a finite-difference numerical method designed for axi-symmetric problems in unbounded domains.Informed by constraints available for the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), a series of simulations assess the influence of fluid injection rates and mechanical properties on the hydrothermal system, uplift and gravity. Heterogeneities in hydrological and mechanical properties associated with the presence of ring faults are a key determinant of the fluid flow pattern and consequently the geophysical observables. Peaks (in absolute value) of uplift and gravity change profiles computed at the ground surface are located close to injection points (namely at the centre of the model and fault areas). Temporal evolution of the ground deformation indicates that the contribution of thermal effects to the total uplift is almost negligible with respect to the pore pressure contribution during the first years of the unrest, but increases in time and becomes dominant after a long period of the simulation. After a transient increase over the first years of unrest, gravity changes become negative and decrease monotonically towards a steady-state value.Since the physics of the investigated hydrothermal system is similar to any fluid-filled reservoir, such as oil fields or CO2 reservoirs produced by sequestration, the generic formulation of the model will allow it to be employed in monitoring and interpretation of deformation and gravity data associated with other geophysical hazards that pose a risk to human activity.

Description: Ground deformation and gravity changes in active calderas during periods of unrest can signal an impending eruption and thus must be correctly interpreted for hazard evaluation. It is critical to differentiate variation of geophysical observables related to volume and pressure changes induced by magma migration from shallow hydrothermal activity associated with hot fluids of magmatic origin rising from depth. In this paper we present a numerical model to evaluate the thermo-poroelastic response of the hydrothermal system in a caldera setting by simulating pore pressure and thermal expansion associated with deep injection of hot fluids (water and carbon dioxide). Hydrothermal fluid circulation is simulated using TOUGH2, a multicomponent multiphase simulator of fluid flows in porous media. Changes in pore pressure and temperature are then evaluated and fed into a thermo-poroelastic model (one-way coupling), which is based on a finite-difference numerical method designed for axi-symmetric problems in unbounded domains. Based on data for the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), a series of simulations assess the influence of fluid injection rates and mechanical properties on the hydrothermal system, uplift and gravity. Heterogeneities in hydrological and mechanical properties associated with the presence of ring faults are a key determinant of the fluid flow pattern and consequently the geophysical observables. Peaks (in absolute value) of uplift and gravity change profiles computed at the ground surface are located close to injection points (namely at the centre of the model and fault areas). Temporal evolution of the ground deformation indicates that the contribution of thermal effects to the total uplift is almost negligible with respect to the pore pressure contribution during the first years of the unrest, but increases in time and becomes dominant after a long period of the simulation. After a transient increase over the first years of unrest, gravity changes become negative and decrease monotonically towards a steady state value. Since the physics of the investigated hydrothermal system is similar to any fluid-filled reservoir, such as oil fields or CO2 reservoirs produced by sequestration, the generic formulation of the model will allow it to be employed in monitoring and interpretation of deformation and gravity data associated with other geophysical hazards that pose a risk to human activity.

Description: The Unknown eruption of 1808/1809 was the second most explosive SO2-rich volcanic eruption in the last two centuries, eclipsed only by the cataclysmic VEI 7 Tambora eruption in April 1815. However, no eyewitness accounts of the event, and therefore its location, or the atmospheric optical effects associated with its aerosols have been documented from historical records. Here we report on two meteorological observations dating from the end of 1808 that describe phenomena we attribute to volcanic-induced atmospheric effects caused by the Unknown eruption. The observations were made by two highly respected Latin American scientists. The first, Francisco José de Caldas, describes a stratospheric aerosol haze, a "transparent cloud that obstructs the sun's brilliance", that was visible over the city of Bogotá, Colombia, from 11 December 1808 to at least mid-February 1809. The second, made by physician José Hipólito Unanue in Lima, Peru, describes sunset after-glows (akin to well-documented examples known to be caused by stratospheric volcanic aerosols) from mid-December 1808 to February 1809. These two accounts provide direct evidence of a persistent stratospheric aerosol veil that spanned at least 2600 km into both Northern and Southern Hemispheres and establish that the source was a tropical volcano. Moreover, these observations confirm that the Unknown eruption, previously identified and tentatively assigned to February 1809 (±4 months) from analysis of ice core sulfate records, occurred in late November or early December 1808 (4 December 1808 ±7 days). This date has important implications for the associated hemispheric climate impacts and temporal pattern of aerosol dispersal.

Description: The "Unknown" eruption of 1808/1809 was the second most explosive SO2-rich volcanic eruption in the last two centuries, only eclipsed by the cataclysmic VEI 7 Tambora eruption in April 1815. However, no eyewitness accounts of the event, and therefore its location, or the atmospheric optical effects associated with its aerosols have been documented from historical records. Here we report on two meteorological observations dating from the end of 1808 that describe phenomena we attribute to volcanic-induced atmospheric effects caused by the Unknown eruption. The observations were made by two highly respected Latin American scientists. The first, Francisco José de Caldas, describes a stratospheric aerosol haze, a "transparent cloud that obstructs the sun's brilliance", that was visible over the city of Bogotá, Colombia, from 11 December 1808 to at least mid-February 1809. The second, made by physician José Hipólito Unanue in Lima, Peru, describes sunset after-glows (akin to well-documented examples known to be caused by stratospheric volcanic aerosols) from mid-December 1808 to February 1809. These two accounts provide direct evidence of a persistent stratospheric aerosol veil that spanned at least 2600 km into both Northern and Southern Hemispheres and establish that the source was a tropical volcano. Moreover, these observations confirm that the Unknown eruption, previously identified and tentatively assigned to February 1809 (±4 months) from analysis of ice core sulphate records, occurred in late November or early December 1808 (4 December 1808 ± 7 days). This date has important implications for the associated hemispheric climate impacts and temporal pattern of aerosol dispersal.