ALBERT

Description: The present work aims at better understanding regional climate–aerosol interactions by studying the relationships between aerosols and synoptic atmospheric circulation over the Euro-Mediterranean region. Two 40-year simulations (1979–2018) have been carried out with version 6.3 of the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (National Centre for Meteorological Research) – Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational (CNRM-ALADIN) regional climate model, one using interactive aerosols and the other one without any aerosol. The simulation with aerosols has been evaluated in terms of different climate and aerosol parameters. This evaluation shows a good agreement between the model and observations, significant improvements compared to the previous model version and consequently the relevance of using this model for the study of climate–aerosol interactions over this region. A first attempt to explain the climate variability of aerosols is based on the use of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The latter explains a significant part of the interannual variability, notably in winter for the export of dust aerosols over the Atlantic Ocean and the eastern Mediterranean, and in summer for the positive anomalies of anthropogenic aerosols over western Europe. This index is however not sufficient to fully understand the variations of aerosols in this region, notably at daily scale. The use of “weather regimes”, namely persisting meteorological patterns, stable at synoptic scale for a few days, provides a relevant description of atmospheric circulation, which drives the emission, transport and deposition of aerosols. The four weather regimes usually defined in this area in winter and in summer bring significant information to answer this question. The blocking and NAO+ regimes are largely favourable to strong aerosol effects on shortwave surface radiation and near-surface temperature, either because of higher aerosol loads or because of weaker cloud fraction, which reinforces the direct aerosol effect. Inversely, the NAO− and Atlantic Ridge regimes are unfavourable to aerosol radiative effects, because of weaker aerosol concentrations and increased cloud cover. This study thus puts forward the strong dependence of aerosol loads on the synoptic circulation from interannual to daily scales and, as a consequence, the important modulation of the aerosol effects on shortwave surface radiation and near-surface temperature by atmospheric circulation. The role of cloud cover is essential in this modulation as shown by the use of weather regimes.

Description: In this work, we use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations from 10 Earth system models (ESMs) and general circulation models (GCMs) to study the fast climate responses on pre-industrial climate, due to present-day aerosols. All models carried out two sets of simulations: a control experiment with all forcings set to the year 1850 and a perturbation experiment with all forcings identical to the control, except for aerosols with precursor emissions set to the year 2014. In response to the pattern of all aerosols effective radiative forcing (ERF), the fast temperature responses are characterized by cooling over the continental areas, especially in the Northern Hemisphere, with the largest cooling over East Asia and India, sulfate being the dominant aerosol surface temperature driver for present-day emissions. In the Arctic there is a warming signal for winter in the ensemble mean of fast temperature responses, but the model-to-model variability is large, and it is presumably linked to aerosol-induced circulation changes. The largest fast precipitation responses are seen in the tropical belt regions, generally characterized by a reduction over continental regions and presumably a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. This is a characteristic and robust feature among most models in this study, associated with weakening of the monsoon systems around the globe (Asia, Africa and America) in response to hemispherically asymmetric cooling from a Northern Hemisphere aerosol perturbation, forcing possibly the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical precipitation to shift away from the cooled hemisphere despite that aerosols' effects on temperature and precipitation are only partly realized in these simulations as the sea surface temperatures are kept fixed. An interesting feature in aerosol-induced circulation changes is a characteristic dipole pattern with intensification of the Icelandic Low and an anticyclonic anomaly over southeastern Europe, inducing warm air advection towards the northern polar latitudes in winter.

Description: The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (±0.23) W m−2, comprised of 1.81 (±0.09) W m−2 from CO2, 1.08 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.01 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.09 (±0.13) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.21 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol–cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4×CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming.

Description: It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by -2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and -4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

Description: Estimates of the direct radiative effect (DRE) from absorbing smoke aerosols over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SAO) require simulation of the microphysical and optical properties of stratocumulus clouds as well as of the altitude and shortwave (SW) optical properties of biomass burning aerosols (BBAs). In this study, we take advantage of the large number of observations acquired during the ObseRvations of Aerosols above Clouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES-2016) and Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) projects during September 2016 and compare them with datasets from the ALADIN-Climate (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) regional model. The model provides a good representation of the liquid water path but the low cloud fraction is underestimated compared to satellite data. The modeled total-column smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) and above-cloud AOD are consistent (∼0.7 over continental sources and ∼0.3 over the SAO at 550 nm) with the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The simulations indicate smoke transport over the SAO occurs mainly between 2 and 4 km, consistent with surface and aircraft lidar observations. The BBA single scattering albedo is slightly overestimated compared to the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and more significantly when compared to Ascension Island surface observations. The difference could be due to the absence of internal mixing treatment in the ALADIN-Climate model. The SSA overestimate leads to an underestimation of the simulated SW radiative heating compared to ORACLES data. ALADIN-Climate simulates a positive (monthly mean) SW DRE of about +6 W m−2 over the SAO (20∘ S–10∘ N and 10∘ W–20∘ E) at the top of the atmosphere and in all-sky conditions. Over the continent, the presence of BBA is shown to significantly decrease the net surface SW flux, through direct and semi-direct effects, which is compensated by a decrease (monthly mean) in sensible heat fluxes (−25 W m−2) and surface land temperature (−1.5 ∘C) over Angola, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, notably. The surface cooling and the lower tropospheric heating decrease the continental planetary boundary layer height by about ∼200 m.

Description: Aerosols play an important role in Europe and the Mediterranean area where different sources of natural and anthropogenic particles are present. Among them ammonium and nitrate (A&N) aerosols may have a growing impact on regional climate. In this study, their representation in coarse and fine modes has been introduced in the prognostic aerosol scheme of the ALADIN-Climate regional model. This new aerosol scheme is evaluated over Europe and the Mediterranean Sea, using two twin simulations over the period 1979–2016 with and without A&N aerosols. This evaluation is performed at local and regional scales, using surface stations and satellite measurements. Despite an overestimate of the surface nitrate concentration, the model is able to reproduce its spatial pattern including local maxima (Benelux, Po Valley). Concerning the simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD), the inclusion of A&N aerosols significantly reduces the model bias compared to both AERONET stations and satellite data. Our results indicate that A&N aerosols can contribute up to 40 % of the total AOD550 over Europe, with an average of 0.07 (550 nm) over the period 2001–2016. Sensitivity studies suggest that biases still present are related to uncertainties associated with the annual cycle of A&N aerosol precursors (ammonia and nitric acid). The decrease in sulfate aerosol production over Europe since 1980 produces more free ammonia in the atmosphere leading to an increase in A&N concentrations over the studied period. Analyses of the different aerosol trends have shown for the first time to our knowledge that, since 2005 over Europe, A&N AOD550 and A&N shortwave (SW) direct radiative forcing (DRF) are found to be higher than sulfate and organics, making these the species with the highest AOD and the highest DRF. On average over the period 1979–2016, the A&N DRF is found to be about −1.7 W m−2 at the surface and −1.4 W m−2 at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) in all sky conditions over Europe, with regional maxima located at the surface over the Po Valley (−5 W m−2). Finally, the dimming effect of A&N aerosols is responsible for a cooling of about −0.2∘ C over Europe (summer), with a maximum of −0.4 ∘C over the Po Valley. Concerning precipitation, no significant impact of A&N aerosols has been found.

Description: We present a long-term series of surface solar radiation (SSR) from the city of Athens, Greece. SSR measurements were performed from 1954 to 2012, and before that (1900–1953) sunshine duration (SD) records were used in order to reconstruct monthly SSR. Analysis of the whole data set (1900–2012) mainly showed very small (0.02 %) changes in SSR from 1900 to 1953, including a maximum decrease of −2.9 % decade−1 in SSR during the 1910 to 1940 period, assuming a linear change. For the dimming period 1955–1980, −2 % decade−1 was observed that matches various European long-term SSR-measurement-related studies. This percentage in Athens is in the lower limit, compared to other studies in the Mediterranean area. For the brightening period 1980–2012 we calculated +1.5 % decade−1, which is also in the lower limit of the reported positive changes in SSR around Europe. Comparing the 30-year periods 1954–1983 and 1983–2012, we found a difference of 4.5 %. However, measurements of the first 30-year period are associated with higher uncertainties than those of the second period, especially when looking at year-to-year changes. The difference between the two periods was observed for all seasons except winter. Analyzing SSR calculations of all-sky and clear-sky (cloudless) conditions/days, we report that most of the observed changes in SSR after 1954 can be attributed partly to cloudiness and mostly to aerosol load changes.

Description: This article describes the IFS-AER aerosol module used operationally in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) cycle 45R1, operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in the framework of the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Services (CAMS). We describe the different parameterizations for aerosol sources, sinks, and its chemical production in IFS-AER, as well as how the aerosols are integrated in the larger atmospheric composition forecasting system. The focus is on the entire 45R1 code base, including some components that are not used operationally, in which case this will be clearly specified. This paper is an update to the Morcrette et al. (2009) article that described aerosol forecasts at the ECMWF using cycle 32R2 of the IFS. Between cycles 32R2 and 45R1, a number of source and sink processes have been reviewed and/or added, notably increasing the complexity of IFS-AER. A greater integration with the tropospheric chemistry scheme of the IFS has been achieved for the sulfur cycle and for nitrate production. Two new species, nitrate and ammonium, have also been included in the forecasting system. Global budgets and aerosol optical depth (AOD) fields are shown, as is an evaluation of the simulated particulate matter (PM) and AOD against observations, showing an increase in skill from cycle 40R2, used in the CAMS interim ReAnalysis (CAMSiRA), to cycle 45R1.

Description: Mineral dust is the most abundant aerosol species by mass in the atmosphere, and it impacts global climate, biogeochemistry, and human health. Understanding these varied impacts on the Earth system requires accurate knowledge of dust abundance, size, and optical properties, and how they vary in space and time. However, current global models show substantial biases against measurements of these dust properties. For instance, recent studies suggest that atmospheric dust is substantially coarser and more aspherical than accounted for in models, leading to persistent biases in modelled impacts of dust on the Earth system. Here, we facilitate more accurate constraints on dust impacts by developing a new dataset: Dust Constraints from joint Observational-Modelling-experiMental analysis (DustCOMM). This dataset combines an ensemble of global model simulations with observational and experimental constraints on dust size distribution and shape to obtain more accurate constraints on three-dimensional (3-D) atmospheric dust properties than is possible from global model simulations alone. Specifically, we present annual and seasonal climatologies of the 3-D dust size distribution, 3-D dust mass extinction efficiency at 550 nm, and two-dimensional (2-D) atmospheric dust loading. Comparisons with independent measurements taken over several locations, heights, and seasons show that DustCOMM estimates consistently outperform conventional global model simulations. In particular, DustCOMM achieves a substantial reduction in the bias relative to measured dust size distributions in the 0.5–20 µm diameter range. Furthermore, DustCOMM reproduces measurements of dust mass extinction efficiency to almost within the experimental uncertainties, whereas global models generally overestimate the mass extinction efficiency. DustCOMM thus provides more accurate constraints on 3-D dust properties, and as such can be used to improve global models or serve as an alternative to global model simulations in constraining dust impacts on the Earth system.

Description: Light-absorbing impurities decrease snow albedo, increasing the amount of solar energy absorbed by the snowpack. Its most intuitive and direct impact is to accelerate snow melt. Enhanced energy absorption in snow also modifies snow metamorphism, which can indirectly drive further variations of snow albedo in the near-infrared part of the solar spectrum because of the evolution of the near-surface snow microstructure. New capabilities have been implemented in the detailed snowpack model SURFEX/ISBA-Crocus (hereafter referred as Crocus) to account for impurities deposition and evolution within the snowpack and their direct and indirect impacts. Once deposited, the model computes impurities mass evolution until snow melts out, accounting for scavenging by melt water. Taking benefits of the recent inclusion of the spectral radiative transfer model TARTES in Crocus, the model explicitly represents the radiative impacts of light-absorbing impurities in snow. The model was evaluated at Col de Porte experimental site (French Alps) during the 2013–2014 snow season, against in-situ standard snow measurements and spectral albedo measurements. In-situ meteorological measurements were used to drive the snowpack model, except for aerosol deposition fluxes. Black carbon and dust deposition fluxes used to drive the model were extracted from simulations of the atmospheric model ALADIN-Climate. The model simulates reasonably snowpack evolution in term of snow depth, snow water equivalent and near-surface specific surface area. Indeed, the model performances are not deteriorated compared to our reference Crocus version, while explicitly representing the impact of light-absorbing impurities. We show that the deposition fluxes from ALADIN-Climate model provide a reasonable estimate of the amount of light-absorbing impurities deposited on the snowpack except for extreme deposition events which are greatly underestimated. For this particular season, the simulated melt-out date advances from 6 to 9 days due to the presence of light-absorbing impurities. The model makes it possible to apportion the relative importance of direct and indirect impacts of light-absorbing impurities on energy absorption in snow. For the snow season considered, the direct impact in the visible part of the solar spectrum accounts for 85 % of the total impact, while the indirect impact related to accelerated snow metamorphism decreasing near-surface specific surface area and thus decreasing near-infrared albedo, accounts for 15 % of the total impact. Our model results demonstrate that these relative proportions vary with time during the season, with potentially significant impacts for snow melt and avalanche prediction.