ALBERT

Description: The end of the Pleistocene was a turning point for the Earth system as climate gradually emerged from millennia of severe glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere. The deglacial climate change coincided with an unprecedented decline in many species of Pleistocene megafauna, including the near-total eradication of the woolly mammoth. Due to an herbivorous diet that presumably involved large-scale tree grazing, the mammoth extinction has been associated with the rapid expansion of dwarf deciduous trees in Siberia and Beringia, thus potentially contributing to the changing climate of the period. In this study, we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) to simulate the possible effects of these extinctions on climate during the latest deglacial period. We have explored various hypothetical scenarios of forest expansion in the northern high latitudes, quantifying the biogeophysical effects in terms of changes in surface albedo and air temperature. These scenarios include a Maximum Impact Scenario (MIS) which simulates the greatest possible post-extinction reforestation in the model, and sensitivity tests which investigate the timing of extinction, the fraction of trees grazed by mammoths, and the southern extent of mammoth habitats. We also show the results of a simulation with free atmospheric CO2-carbon cycle interactions. For the MIS, we obtained a surface albedo increase and global warming of 0.006 and 0.175 °C, respectively. Less extreme scenarios produced smaller global mean temperature changes, though local warming in some locations exceeded 0.3 °C even in the more realistic extinction scenarios. In the free CO2 simulation, the biogeophysical-induced warming was amplified by a biogeochemical effect, whereby the replacement of high-latitude tundra with shrub forest led to a release of soil carbon to the atmosphere and a small atmospheric CO2 increase. Overall, our results suggest the potential for a small, though non-trivial, effect of megafaunal extinctions on Pleistocene climate.

Description: We applied an inverse model to simulate global carbon (C) cycle dynamics during the Holocene period using atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reconstructed from Antarctic ice cores and prescribed C accumulation rates of Northern Peatlands (NP) as inputs. Previous studies indicated that different sources could contribute to the 20 parts per million by volume (ppmv) atmospheric CO2 increase over the past 8000 years. These sources of C include terrestrial release of 40–200 petagram C (PgC, 1 petagram=1015 gram), deep oceanic adjustment to a 500 PgC terrestrial biomass buildup early in this interglacial period, and anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes of unknown magnitudes. Our study shows that the prescribed peatland C accumulation significantly modifies our previous understanding of Holocene C cycle dynamics. If the buildup of the NP is considered, the terrestrial pool becomes the C sink of about 160–280 PgC over the past 8000 years, and the only C source for the terrestrial and atmospheric C increases is presumably from the deep ocean due to calcium carbonate compensation. Future studies need to be conducted to constrain the basal times and growth rates of the NP C accumulation in the Holocene. These research endeavors are challenging because they need a dynamically-coupled peatland simulator to be constrained with the initiation time and reconstructed C reservoir of the NP. Our results also suggest that the huge reservoir of deep ocean C explains the major variability of the glacial-interglacial C cycle dynamics without considering the anthropogenic C perturbation.

Description: Proxy reconstructions and modeling studies of the glacial-interglacial changes in the global carbon cycle have led to a stimulating debate in the paleoclimate literature about the mechanisms leading to a 90–100 ppmv increase in atmospheric CO2. In this paper, we used the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model v. 2.9 to simulate the carbon cycle response to ice sheet retreat and Milankovitch (insolation) forcing from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present. In addition, we conducted sensitivity studies to address the contributions of CO2 radiative forcing, atmospheric carbon content, and weathering rates to climate and carbon cycle changes since 21 kyr BP. The simulations show that ice sheet and orbital changes by themselves do not lead to a notable increase in atmospheric CO2 over the course of deglaciation. However, with the application of CO2 radiative forcing and different weathering rates, the simulated atmospheric CO2 variations ranged over ~ 35 ppmv. Virtually all of the simulated net global vegetation carbon uptake since the LGM is attributable to CO2 fertilization rather than greater land availability or warmer temperatures. Furthermore, the ‘greening’ from CO2 fertilization significantly enhances total deglacial warming (by 0.14°C) and contributes to warmer intermediate and deep ocean temperatures during the interglacial period. We also found that CO2 radiative forcing was the dominant factor allowing for greater outgassing at the ocean surface and an earlier ventilation of deep-ocean DIC. The downwelling of high-alkalinity surface waters stimulated by a stronger, earlier overturning circulation led to greater deep sedimentation (alkalinity removal), which, in turn, permitted CO2 to continue to increase through much of the simulation period.

Description: The end of the Pleistocene marked a turning point for the Earth system as climate gradually emerged from millennia of severe glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere. It is widely acknowledged that the deglacial climate change coincided with an unprecedented decline in many species of large terrestrial mammals, including the near-total eradication of the woolly mammoth. Due to an herbivorous diet that presumably involved large-scale tree grazing, the mammoth expansion would have accelerated the expansion of dwarf deciduous trees in Siberia and Beringia, thus contributing to the changing climate of the period. In this study, we use the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) to simulate the possible effects of megafaunal extinctions on Pleistocene climate change. We have explored various hypothetical scenarios of forest expansion in the Northern Continents, quantifying the regional and global biogeophysical effects in terms of changes in surface albedo and air temperature. In particular, we focus our attention on a Maximum Impact Scenario (MIS) which simulates the greatest possible post-extinction reforestation in the model. More realistic experiments include sensitivity tests based on the timing of extinction, the fraction of trees grazed by mammoths, and the size of mammoth habitats. We also show the results of a simulation with free (non-prescribed) atmospheric CO2. For the MIS, we obtained a surface albedo increase of 0.006, which resulted in a global warming of 0.175 °C. Less extreme scenarios produced smaller global mean temperature changes, though local warming in some locations exceeded 0.3 °C even in the more realistic extinction scenarios. In the free CO2 simulation, the biogeophysical-induced warming was amplified by a biogeochemical effect whereby the replacement of high-latitude tundra with shrub forest led to a release of soil carbon to the atmosphere and a small atmospheric CO2 increase. Overall, our results suggest the potential for a small, though non-trivial, effect of megafaunal extinctions on Pleistocene climate change.

Description: We applied an inverse model to simulate global carbon (C) cycle dynamics during the Holocene period using atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reconstructed from Antarctic ice cores and prescribed C accumulation rates of Northern Peatlands (NP) as inputs. Previous studies indicated that different sources could contribute to the 20 parts per million by volume (ppmv) atmospheric CO2 increase over the past 8000 years. These sources of C include terrestrial release of 40–200 petagram C (PgC, 1 petagram=1015 gram), deep oceanic adjustment to a 500 PgC terrestrial biomass buildup early in this interglacial period, and anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes of unknown magnitudes. Our study shows that the prescribed peatland C accumulation significantly modifies our previous understanding of Holocene C cycle dynamics. If the buildup of the NP is considered, the terrestrial pool becomes the C sink of about 160–280 PgC over the past 8000 years, and the only C source for the terrestrial and atmospheric C increases is presumably from the deep ocean due to calcium carbonate compensation. Future studies need to be conducted to constrain the basal times and growth rates of the NP C accumulation in the Holocene. These research endeavors are challenging because they need a dynamically-coupled peatland simulator to be constrained with the initiation time and reconstructed C reservoir of the NP. Our results also suggest that the huge reservoir of deep ocean C explains the major variability of the glacial-interglacial C cycle dynamics without considering the anthropogenic C perturbation.