ALBERT

Description: A temperature- and stress-dependent failure criterion for ice-filled rock (limestone) joints was proposed in 2018 as an essential tool to assess and model the stability of degrading permafrost rock slopes. To test the applicability to other rock types, we conducted laboratory tests with mica schist and gneiss, which provide the maximum expected deviation of lithological effects on the shear strength due to strong negative surface charges affecting the rock–ice interface. Retesting 120 samples at temperatures from −10 to −0.5 ∘C and normal stress of 100 to 400 kPa, we show that even for controversial rocks the failure criterion stays unaltered, suggesting that the failure criterion is transferable to mostly all rock types.

Description: Cirque erosion contributes significantly to mountain denudation and is a key element of glaciated mountain topography. Despite long-standing efforts, rates of rockwall retreat and the proportional contributions of low-, mid- and high-magnitude rockfalls have remained poorly constrained. Here, a unique, terrestrial-lidar-derived rockfall inventory (2011–2017) of two glaciated cirques in the Hohe Tauern range, Central Alps, Austria, is analysed. The mean cirque wall retreat rate of 1.9 mm a−1 ranks in the top range of reported values and is mainly driven by enhanced rockfall from the lowermost, freshly deglaciated rockwall sections. Retreat rates are significantly elevated over decades subsequent to glacier downwasting. Elongated cirque morphology and recorded cirque wall retreat rates indicate headward erosion is clearly outpacing lateral erosion, most likely due to the cataclinal backwalls, which are prone to large dip-slope failures. The rockfall magnitude–frequency distribution – the first such distribution derived for deglaciating cirques – follows a distinct negative power law over 4 orders of magnitude. Magnitude–frequency distributions in glacier-proximal and glacier-distal rockwall sections differ significantly due to an increased occurrence of large rockfalls in recently deglaciated areas. In this paper, the second of two companion pieces, we show how recent climate warming shapes glacial landforms, controls spatiotemporal rockfall variation in glacial environments and indicates a transient signal with decadal-scale exhaustion of rockfall activity immediately following deglaciation crucial for future hazard assessments.

Description: In the European Alps, almost half the glacier volume has disappeared over the past 150 years. The loss is reflected in glacier retreat and ice surface lowering even at high altitude. In steep glacial cirques, surface lowering exposes rock to atmospheric conditions probably for the very first time in several millennia. Instability of rockwalls has long been identified as one of the direct consequences of deglaciation, but so far cirque-wide quantification of rockfall at high resolution is missing. Based on terrestrial lidar, a rockfall inventory for the permafrost-affected rockwalls of two rapidly deglaciating cirques in the Central Alps of Austria (Kitzsteinhorn) is established. Over 6 years (2011–2017), 78 rockwall scans were acquired to generate data of high spatial and temporal resolution. Overall, 632 rockfalls were registered, ranging from 0.003 to 879.4 m3, mainly originating from pre-existing structural rock weaknesses. A total of 60 % of the rockfall volume detached from less than 10 vertical metres above the glacier surface, indicating enhanced rockfall activity over tens of years following deglaciation. Debuttressing seems to play a minor effect only. Rather, preconditioning is assumed to start inside the randkluft (void between cirque wall and glacier) where measured sustained freezing and ample supply of liquid water likely cause enhanced physical weathering and high quarrying stresses. Following deglaciation, pronounced thermomechanical strain is induced and an active layer penetrates into the formerly perennially frozen bedrock. These factors likely cause the observed paraglacial rockfall increase close to the glacier surface. This paper, the first of two companion pieces, presents the most extensive dataset of high-alpine rockfall to date and the first systematic documentation of a cirque-wide erosion response of glaciated rockwalls to recent climate warming.

Description: Understanding rock slope kinematics in steep, fractured bedrock permafrost is a challenging task. Recent laboratory studies have provided enhanced understanding of rock fatigue and fracturing in cold environments but were not successfully confirmed by field studies. This study presents a unique time series of fracture kinematics, rock temperatures and environmental conditions at 3500 m a. s. l.  on the steep, strongly fractured Hörnligrat of the Matterhorn (Swiss Alps). Thanks to 8 years of continuous data, the longer-term evolution of fracture kinematics in permafrost can be analyzed with an unprecedented level of detail. Evidence for common trends in spatiotemporal pattern of fracture kinematics could be found: a partly reversible seasonal movement can be observed at all locations, with variable amplitudes. In the wider context of rock slope stability assessment, we propose separating reversible (elastic) components of fracture kinematics, caused by thermoelastic strains, from the irreversible (plastic) component due to other processes. A regression analysis between temperature and fracture displacement shows that all instrumented fractures exhibit reversible displacements that dominate fracture kinematics in winter. Furthermore, removing this reversible component from the observed displacement enables us to quantify the irreversible component. From this, a new metric – termed index of irreversibility – is proposed to quantify relative irreversibility of fracture kinematics. This new index can identify periods when fracture displacements are dominated by irreversible processes. For many sensors, irreversible enhanced fracture displacement is observed in summer and its initiation coincides with the onset of positive rock temperatures. This likely indicates thawing-related processes, such as meltwater percolation into fractures, as a forcing mechanism for irreversible displacements. For a few instrumented fractures, irreversible displacements were found at the onset of the freezing period, suggesting that cryogenic processes act as a driving factor through increasing ice pressure. The proposed analysis provides a tool for investigating and better understanding processes related to irreversible kinematics.

Description: Deep-seated landslides are an important and widespread natural hazard within alpine regions and can have significant impacts on infrastructure. Pore water pressure plays an important role in determining the stability of hydrologically triggered deep-seated landslides. Based on a simple tank model structure, we improve groundwater level prediction by introducing time lags associated with groundwater supply caused by snow accumulation, snowmelt and infiltration in deep-seated landslides. In this study, we demonstrate an equivalent infiltration calculation to improve the estimation of time lags using a modified tank model to calculate regional groundwater levels. Applied to the deep-seated Aggenalm landslide in the German Alps at 1000–1200 m a. s. l. , our results predict daily changes in pore water pressure ranging from −1 to 1.6 kPa, depending on daily rainfall and snowmelt, which are compared to piezometric measurements in boreholes. The inclusion of time lags improves the results of standard tank models by  ∼  36 % (linear correlation with measurement) after heavy rainfall and by  ∼ 82 % following snowmelt in a 1–2-day period. For the modified tank model, we introduced a representation of snow accumulation and snowmelt based on a temperature index and an equivalent infiltration method, i.e. the melted snow-water equivalent. The modified tank model compares well to borehole-derived water pressures. Changes of pore water pressure can be modelled with 0–8 % relative error in rainfall season (standard tank model: 2–16 % relative error) and with 0–7 % relative error in snowmelt season (standard tank model: 2–45 % relative error). Here we demonstrate a modified tank model for deep-seated landslides which includes snow accumulation, snowmelt and infiltration effects and can effectively predict changes in pore water pressure in alpine environments.

Description: Instability and failure of high mountain rock slopes have significantly increased since the 1990s coincident with climatic warming and are expected to rise further. Most of the observed failures in permafrost-affected rock walls are likely triggered by the mechanical destabilisation of warming bedrock permafrost including ice-filled joints. The failure of ice-filled rock joints has only been observed in a small number of experiments, often using concrete as a rock analogue. Here, we present a systematic study of the brittle shear failure of ice and rock–ice interfaces, simulating the accelerating phase of rock slope failure. For this, we performed 141 shearing experiments with rock–ice–rock “sandwich”' samples at constant strain rates (10−3 s−1) provoking ice fracturing, under normal stress conditions ranging from 100 to 800 kPa, representing 4–30 m of rock overburden, and at temperatures from −10 to −0.5 ∘C, typical for recent observed rock slope failures in alpine permafrost. To create close to natural but reproducible conditions, limestone sample surfaces were ground to international rock mechanical standard roughness. Acoustic emission (AE) was successfully applied to describe the fracturing behaviour, anticipating rock–ice failure as all failures are predated by an AE hit increase with peaks immediately prior to failure. We demonstrate that both the warming and unloading (i.e. reduced overburden) of ice-filled rock joints lead to a significant drop in shear resistance. With a temperature increase from −10 to −0.5 ∘C, the shear stress at failure reduces by 64 %–78 % for normal stresses of 100–400 kPa. At a given temperature, the shear resistance of rock–ice interfaces decreases with decreasing normal stress. This can lead to a self-enforced rock slope failure propagation: as soon as a first slab has detached, further slabs become unstable through progressive thermal propagation and possibly even faster by unloading. Here, we introduce a new Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion for ice-filled rock joints that is valid for joint surfaces, which we assume similar for all rock types, and which applies to temperatures from −8 to −0.5 ∘C and normal stresses from 100 to 400 kPa. It contains temperature-dependent friction and cohesion, which decrease by 12 % ∘C−1 and 10 % ∘C−1 respectively due to warming and it applies to temperature and stress conditions of more than 90 % of the recently documented accelerating failure phases in permafrost rock walls.

Description: Instability and failure of permafrost-affected rock slopes have significantly increased coincident to warming in the last decades. Most of the observed failures in permafrost-affected rock walls are likely triggered by the mechanical destabilisation of warming bedrock permafrost including effects in ice-filled joints. The failure of ice-filled rock joints has only been observed in a small number of experiments, often using concrete as a rock analogue. Here, we present a systematic study of the brittle shear failure of ice and rock-ice interfaces, simulating the accelerating phase of rock slope failure. For this, we performed 141 shear experiments with rock-ice-rock sandwich samples at constant strain rates provoking ice fracturing (10−3s−1), under relevant stress conditions ranging from 100 to 800kPa, i.e. 4–30m rock overburden, and at temperatures from −10 to −0.5°C, typical for recent rock slope failures in alpine permafrost. To create close to natural but reproducible conditions, limestone sample surfaces were ground to international rock mechanical standard roughness. Acoustic emission (AE) was successfully applied to describe the fracturing behaviour, anticipating rock-ice failure as all failures are predated by an AE hit increase with peaks immediately prior to failure. We demonstrate that both, the warming and unloading (i.e. reduced overburden) of ice-filled rock joints lead to a significant drop in shear resistance. With a temperature increase from −10°C to −0.5°C, the shear stress at failure reduces by 64–78% for normal stresses of 100–400kPa. At a given temperature, the shear resistance of rock-ice interfaces decreases with decreasing normal stress. This can lead to a self-enforced rock slope failure propagation: as soon as a first slab has detached, further slabs become unstable through progressive thermal propagation and possibly even faster by unloading. Here, we introduce a new Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion for ice-filled rock joints that is valid for joint surfaces which we assume similar for all rock types, and which applies to temperatures from −8 to −0.5°C and normal stresses from 100 to 400kPa. It contains a temperature-dependent friction and cohesion which decrease by 12%/°C and 10%/°C respectively due to warming and it applies to temperature and stress conditions of more than 90% of the recently documented accelerating failure phases in permafrost rock walls.

Description: Over the last 2 decades, permafrost degradation has been observed to be a major driver of enhanced rock slope instability and associated hazards in high mountains. While the thermal regime of permafrost degradation in high mountains has been addressed in several modelling approaches, no mechanical models that thoroughly explain rock slope destabilisation controls in degrading permafrost have been developed. Meanwhile, recent laboratory studies have shown that degrading permafrost affects both, rock and ice mechanical strength parameters as well as the strength of rock–ice interfaces. This study presents a first general approach for a temperature-dependent numerical stability model that simulates the mechanical response of a warming and thawing permafrost rock slope. The proposed procedure is exemplified using a rockslide at the permafrost-affected Zugspitze summit crest. Laboratory tests on frozen and unfrozen rock joint and intact rock properties provide material parameters for discontinuum models developed with the Universal Distinct Element Code (UDEC). Geophysical and geotechnical field surveys reveal information on permafrost distribution and the fracture network. This model can demonstrate how warming decreases rock slope stability to a critical level and why thawing initiates failure. A generalised sensitivity analysis of the model with a simplified geometry and warming trajectory below 0 ∘C shows that progressive warming close to the melting point initiates instability above a critical slope angle of 50–62∘, depending on the orientation of the fracture network. The increase in displacements intensifies for warming steps closer to 0 ∘C. The simplified and generalised model can be applied to permafrost rock slopes (i) which warm above −4 ∘C, (ii) with ice-filled joints, (iii) with fractured limestone or probably most of the rock types relevant for permafrost rock slope failure, and (iv) with a wide range of slope angles (30–70∘) and orientations of the fracture network (consisting of three joint sets). Here, we present a benchmark model capable of assessing the future destabilisation of degrading permafrost rock slopes.