ALBERT

Description: Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is the largest single contributor to eustatic sea level and is amplified by the growth of pigmented algae on the ice surface, which increases solar radiation absorption. This biological albedo-reducing effect and its impact upon sea level rise has not previously been quantified. Here, we combine field spectroscopy with a radiative-transfer model, supervised classification of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and satellite remote-sensing data, and runoff modelling to calculate biologically driven ice surface ablation. We demonstrate that algal growth led to an additional 4.4–6.0 Gt of runoff from bare ice in the south-western sector of the GrIS in summer 2017, representing 10 %–13 % of the total. In localized patches with high biomass accumulation, algae accelerated melting by up to 26.15±3.77 % (standard error, SE). The year 2017 was a high-albedo year, so we also extended our analysis to the particularly low-albedo 2016 melt season. The runoff from the south-western bare-ice zone attributed to algae was much higher in 2016 at 8.8–12.2 Gt, although the proportion of the total runoff contributed by algae was similar at 9 %–13 %. Across a 10 000 km2 area around our field site, algae covered similar proportions of the exposed bare ice zone in both years (57.99 % in 2016 and 58.89 % in 2017), but more of the algal ice was classed as “high biomass” in 2016 (8.35 %) than 2017 (2.54 %). This interannual comparison demonstrates a positive feedback where more widespread, higher-biomass algal blooms are expected to form in high-melt years where the winter snowpack retreats further and earlier, providing a larger area for bloom development and also enhancing the provision of nutrients and liquid water liberated from melting ice. Our analysis confirms the importance of this biological albedo feedback and that its omission from predictive models leads to the systematic underestimation of Greenland's future sea level contribution, especially because both the bare-ice zones available for algal colonization and the length of the biological growth season are set to expand in the future.

Description: One consequence of recent Arctic warming is an increased occurrence and longer seasonality of above-freezing air temperature episodes. There is significant disagreement in the literature concerning potential physical connectivity between high-latitude open water duration proximate to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and late-season (i.e., end-of-summer and autumn) GrIS melt events. Here, a new date of sea ice advance (DOA) product is used to determine the occurrence of Baffin Bay sea ice growth along Greenland's west coast for the 2011–2015 period. Over the 2-month period preceding the DOA, northwest Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions are analyzed and linked to late-season melt events observed at a series of on-ice automatic weather stations (AWSs) along the K-transect in southwestern Greenland. Surrounding ice sheet, tundra, and coastal winds from the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) and Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) provide high-resolution spatial context to AWS observations and are analyzed along with ERA-Interim reanalysis fields to understand the meso-to-synoptic-scale (thermo)dynamic drivers of the melt events. Results suggest that late-season melt events, which primarily occur in the ablation area, are strongly affected by ridging atmospheric circulation patterns that transport warm, moist air from the subpolar North Atlantic toward west Greenland. Increasing concentrations of North Atlantic water vapor are shown to be necessary to produce melt conditions as autumn progresses. While thermal conduction and advection off south Baffin Bay open waters impact coastal air temperatures, local marine air incursions are obstructed by barrier flows and persistent katabatic winds along the western GrIS margin.

Description: Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950–2100. We find that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions (Historical scenario) and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently-observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over Northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models.

Description: Recent studies note a significant increase in high-pressure blocking over the Greenland region (Greenland Blocking Index, GBI) in summer since the 1990s. Such a general circulation change, indicated by a negative trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, is generally highlighted as a major driver of recent surface melt records observed on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Here we compare reanalysis-based GBI records with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) suite of global climate models over 1950–2100. We find that the recent summer GBI increase lies well outside the range of modelled past reconstructions and future GBI projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The models consistently project a future decrease in GBI (linked to an increase in NAO), which highlights a likely key deficiency of current climate models if the recently observed circulation changes continue to persist. Given well-established connections between atmospheric pressure over the Greenland region and air temperature and precipitation extremes downstream, e.g. over northwest Europe, this brings into question the accuracy of simulated North Atlantic jet stream changes and resulting climatological anomalies over densely populated regions of northern Europe as well as of future projections of GrIS mass balance produced using global and regional climate models.

Description: Melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is the largest single contributor to eustatic sea level and is amplified by the growth of pigmented algae on the ice surface that increase solar radiation absorption. This biological albedo reducing effect and its impact upon sea level rise has not previously been quantified. Here, we combine field spectroscopy with a novel radiative transfer model, supervised classification of UAV and satellite remote sensing data and runoff modelling to calculate biologically-driven ice surface ablation and compare it to the albedo reducing effects of local mineral dust. We demonstrate that algal growth led to an additional 5.5–8.0 Gt of runoff from the western sector of the GrIS in summer 2016, representing 6–9 % of the total. Our analysis confirms the importance of the biological albedo feedback and that its omission from predictive models leads to the systematic underestimation of Greenland’s future sea level contribution, especially because both the bare ice zones available for algal colonization and the length of the active growth season are set to expand in the future.

Description: One consequence of recent Arctic warming is an increased occurrence and longer seasonality of above-freezing air temperature episodes. There is significant disagreement in the literature concerning potential physical connectivity between high-latitude open water duration proximate to the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and unseasonal (i.e. late summer and autumn) GrIS melt events. Here, a new date of sea ice advance (DOA) product is used to determine the occurrence of Baffin Bay sea ice growth along Greenland's west coast for the 2011–2015 period. For the unseasonal melt period preceding the DOA, northwest Atlantic Ocean and atmospheric conditions are analyzed and linked to unseasonal melt events observed at a series of on-ice automatic weather stations (AWS) along the K-transect in southwest Greenland. Mesoscale and synoptic influences on the above and below freezing surface air temperature events are assessed through analyses of AWS wind, pressure, and humidity observations. These surface observations are further compared against Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2), and ERA-Interim reanalysis fields to understand the airmass origins and (thermo)dynamic drivers of the melt events. Results suggest that the K-transect late season, ablation zone melt events are strongly affected by ridging atmospheric circulation patterns that transport warm, moist air from the sub-polar North Atlantic toward west Greenland. While thermal conduction and advection off south Baffin Bay open waters impact coastal air temperatures, consistent with previous studies, marine air incursions from Baffin Bay onto the ice sheet are obstructed by barrier flows and the pressure gradient-driven katabatic regime along the western GrIS margin.

Description: Observations and models agree that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) has decreased since the end of the 1990s due to an increase in meltwater runoff and that this trend will accelerate in the future. However, large uncertainties remain, partly due to different approaches for modelling the GrIS SMB, which have to weigh physical complexity or low computing time, different spatial and temporal resolutions, different forcing fields, and different ice sheet topographies and extents, which collectively make an inter-comparison difficult. Our GrIS SMB model intercomparison project (GrSMBMIP) aims to refine these uncertainties by intercomparing 13 models of four types which were forced with the same ERA-Interim reanalysis forcing fields, except for two global models. We interpolate all modelled SMB fields onto a common ice sheet mask at 1 km horizontal resolution for the period 1980–2012 and score the outputs against (1) SMB estimates from a combination of gravimetric remote sensing data from GRACE and measured ice discharge; (2) ice cores, snow pits and in situ SMB observations; and (3) remotely sensed bare ice extent from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Spatially, the largest spread among models can be found around the margins of the ice sheet, highlighting model deficiencies in an accurate representation of the GrIS ablation zone extent and processes related to surface melt and runoff. Overall, polar regional climate models (RCMs) perform the best compared to observations, in particular for simulating precipitation patterns. However, other simpler and faster models have biases of the same order as RCMs compared with observations and therefore remain useful tools for long-term simulations or coupling with ice sheet models. Finally, it is interesting to note that the ensemble mean of the 13 models produces the best estimate of the present-day SMB relative to observations, suggesting that biases are not systematic among models and that this ensemble estimate can be used as a reference for current climate when carrying out future model developments. However, a higher density of in situ SMB observations is required, especially in the south-east accumulation zone, where the model spread can reach 2 m w.e. yr−1 due to large discrepancies in modelled snowfall accumulation.