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  • 1
    Publication Date: 1999-06-30
    Description: A growth factor is the ratio of the T-year extreme value to an index extreme value such as the mean of annual maxima. Whereas a record length of ten or more years may suffice to estimate the index variable, it is generally necessary to blend data from several sites if estimates of exceptional extreme values are to be obtained. Methods of rainfall growth estimation are reviewed, including traditional methods which extend frequency curves to long return period by a distributional assumption, and methods which study spatial dependence in extreme rainfalls. It is desirable that estimates at neighbouring sites, and across different durations and return periods, are internally consistent. The review concludes that rather special techniques may be required if this goal of estimation extreme rainfall depth consistently is to be met. The motivation of the Focused Rainfall Growth Extension (FORGEX) method is presented.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 1999-06-30
    Description: The Focused Rainfall Growth Extension (FORGEX) method produces rainfall growth curves focused on a subject site. Focusing allows the incorporation of rainfall extremes observed regionally while respecting local variations in growth rates. The starting point for the analysis is an extensive set of annual maximum rainfalls, with values at each gauged site standardized by the median. Following the philosophy of the earlier FORGE method, a strongly empirical approach is adopted. The rainfall growth curve is represented by linear segments on a Gumbel scale, and is fitted by a least-squares criterion. The selection of data points is intricate and includes both the traditional pooling of regional extremes and the incorporation of network maximum events. The latter comprise the largest events from successive hierarchical networks of gauges, focused on the site for which estimates are requires. Their treatment takes account of interdependence using the Dales and Reed model of spatial dependence in rainfall extremes.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 1998-09-30
    Description: Distance from the sea, proximity of mountains, continentality and elevation are all useful covariates to assist the mapping of extreme rainfalls. Regression models linking these and other variables calculated from a digital terrain model have been built for estimating the median annual maximum rainfall, RMED. This statistic, for rainfall durations between 1 hour and 8 days, is the index variable in the rainfall frequency analysis for the new UK Flood Estimation Handbook. The interpolation of RMED between raingauge sites is most challenging in mountainous regions, which combine the greatest variation in rainfall with the sparsest network of gauges. Sophisticated variables have been developed to account for the influence of topography on extreme rainfall, the geographical orientation of the variables reflecting the prevailing direction of rain-bearing weather systems. The different processes of short and long-duration extreme rainfall are accounted for by separate regression models. The technique of georegression combines estimates from regression models with a map of correction factors interpolated between raingauge locations using the geostatistical method of kriging, to produce final maps of RMED across the UK.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 1999-06-30
    Description: This paper illustrates the performance of the FORGEX method of rainfall growth estimation. Results are presented for three regions of the United Kingdom: the East Midlands, north-west England and south-west England. Focused rainfall growth curves are compared between regions and between different sites within each region. Typical growth curve shapes are discussed with reference to the climate of each region. Daily growth curves are derived from a large number of records of annual maximum rainfalls. A smaller number of hourly annual maximum series is available for estimation sub-daily rainfall growth curves. Rainfall growth rates are compared with the results of a widely used method. The present method allows more local and regional variation in growth rates. The new growth rates are higher for durations of 1 and 2 days in parts of south-west England, but lower for moderate return periods at some focal points in the north-west. In the East Midlands, the new 1-hour growth rates are considerably higher for long return periods. Confidence limits for growth rates are derived by bootstrapping. This is accomplished by fitting a large number of growth curves to resampled sets of rainfall data.
    Print ISSN: 1027-5606
    Electronic ISSN: 1607-7938
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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