ALBERT

Description: We studied contrasting glacier systems in continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky ranges located in the Pole of Cold of Eurasia area at the contact of Atlantic and Pacific influences and maritime (Kamchatka Peninsula) – under Pacific influence. Our purpose is to present a simple projection method to asses the main parameters of these glacier regions under climate change. To achieve this, constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological data for 1950–90s and ECHAM4 for 2040–2069 are used, the latter – as a climatic scenario. Also for selected key glacier systems other models were applied for comparison. The observations and scenarios were used to define the recent and future equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and glacier termini elevation for each glacier system. The altitudinal distributions of ice areas were determined for present and future, they were used for prediction of the elevation spreading of glaciers in the system taking into account the correlation between the ELA and glacier-termini level change. We tested two hypotheses of ice distribution versus altitude in mountain (valley) glaciers – linear and non-linear. The results are estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of Northeastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics for 2049–60. Finally, we compare characteristics of the stability of continental and maritime glacier systems under global warming.

Description: The Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project has developed tools and methods that can be employed by analysts to create accurate glacier outlines and resultant measures of glacier extent. To illustrate the importance of accurate glacier outlines and the effectiveness of GLIMS standards we have conducted a case study on Bering Glacier System (BGS), Alaska. BGS is a complex glacier system aggregated from multiple drainage basins, numerous individual ice streams, and many accumulation areas. Published measurements of BGS surface area vary from 1740 to 6200 km2, depending on how the boundaries of this system have been defined. Utilizing GLIMS tools and standards we have completed a new outline and analysis of the area-altitude distribution (hypsometry) of BGS using Landsat images from 2000 and 2001. We compared this new outline (3632 km2) with three previous outlines to illustrate the errors that result from the widely varying estimates used in previous analysis of BGS area. The use of different BGS outlines results in highly variable measures of volume change and net balance (bn). Outline variability alone results in a net balance rate range of –1.0 to –3.2 m/yr water equivalent (W.E.), a volume change range of –4.2 to –8.2 km3/yr, and a near doubling in contributions to sea level equivalent (SLE), 0.0122 mm/yr to 0.0236 mm/yr. A study of three different models of BGS net balance leads us to favor estimates of bn of –1.2 m/yr W.E. and total volume change of –4.2 km3/yr for the period 1950–2004. These estimates result in a near doubling of contributions to sea level equivalent when compared with previous studies. While current inaccuracies in glacier outlines hinder our ability to fully understand glacier change, there is no reason why our understanding of glacier extents should not be comprehensive and accurate. Such accuracy is possible with the increasing volume of satellite imagery of glacierized regions, and recent advances in tools and standards.

Description: We studied contrasting glacier systems in continental (Orulgan, Suntar-Khayata and Chersky) mountain ranges, located in the region of the lowest temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere at the boundary of Atlantic and Pacific influences – and maritime ones (Kamchatka Peninsula) – under Pacific influence. Our purpose is to present a simple projection method to assess the main parameters of these glacier regions under climate change. To achieve this, constructed vertical profiles of mass balance (accumulation and ablation) based both on meteorological data for the 1950–1990s (baseline period) and ECHAM4 for 2049–2060 (projected period) are used, the latter – as a climatic scenario. The observations and scenarios were used to define the recent and future equilibrium line altitude and glacier terminus altitude level for each glacier system as well as areas and balance components. The altitudinal distributions of ice areas were determined for present and future, and they were used for prediction of glacier extent versus altitude in the system taking into account the correlation between the ELA and glacier-terminus level change. We tested two hypotheses of ice distribution versus altitude in mountain (valley) glaciers – "linear" and "non-linear". The results are estimates of the possible changes of the areas and morphological structure of northeastern Asia glacier systems and their mass balance characteristics for 2049–2060. Glaciers in the southern parts of northeastern Siberia and those covering small ranges in Kamchatka will likely disappear under the ECHAM4 scenario; the best preservation of glaciers will be on the highest volcanic peaks of Kamchatka. Finally, we compare characteristics of the stability of continental and maritime glacier systems under global warming.

Description: The Global Land Ice Measurements from Space (GLIMS) project has developed tools and methods that can be employed by analysts to create accurate glacier outlines. To illustrate the importance of accurate glacier outlines and the effectiveness of GLIMS standards we conducted a case study on Bering Glacier System (BGS), Alaska. BGS is a complex glacier system aggregated from multiple drainage basins, numerous tributaries, and many accumulation areas. Published measurements of BGS surface area vary from 1740 to 6200 km2, depending on how the boundaries of this system have been defined. Utilizing GLIMS tools and standards we have completed a new outline (3630 km2) and analysis of the area-altitude distribution (hypsometry) of BGS using Landsat images from 2000 and 2001 and a US Geological Survey 15-min digital elevation model. We compared this new hypsometry with three different hypsometries to illustrate the errors that result from the widely varying estimates of BGS extent. The use of different BGS hypsometries results in highly variable measures of volume change and net balance (bn). Applying a simple hypsometry-dependent mass-balance model to different hypsometries results in a bn rate range of −1.0 to −3.1 m a−1 water equivalent (W.E.), a volume change range of −3.8 to −6.7 km3 a−1 W.E., and a near doubling in contributions to sea level equivalent, 0.011 mm a−1 to 0.019 mm a−1. Current inaccuracies in glacier outlines hinder our ability to correctly quantify glacier change. Understanding of glacier extents can become comprehensive and accurate. Such accuracy is possible with the increasing volume of satellite imagery of glacierized regions, recent advances in tools and standards, and dedication to this important task.

Description: The paper traces my career as a climatologist from the 1950s and that of most of my graduate students from the late 1960s. These decades were the formative ones in the evolution of climate science. Following a brief account of the history of climatology, a summary of my early training, my initial teaching and research in the UK is discussed. This is followed by new directions at the University of Colorado, Boulder from October 1968. The history of the World Data Center for Glaciology/National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder from 1977 is described and climate-cryosphere initiatives at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES). International activities and links are then reported, followed by a section on national and international committees. I then describe my activities during sabbaticals and research leaves. The paper concludes with discussion of my "retirement" activities and an epilogue. The paper is based on a lecture given at the Roger Barry Symposium: A Chronicle of Distinction: From the Arctic to the Andes, at the University of Colorado, 10 August 2004 and updated to 2014.

Description: The origin of the term "cryosphere" has been traced to the Polish scientist A. B. Dobrowolski in his 1923 book on "The Natural History of Ice" written in Polish. This note commemorates his little recognized contribution to the science, outside of his native country, and summarizes the recent organization of cryospheric research.