ALBERT

Description: Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past two decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure and evaluate performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land models. The framework includes (1) targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated; (2) a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance; (3) metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies; and (4) model improvement. Component 4 may or may not be involved in a benchmark analysis but is an ultimate goal of general modeling research. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and the land-surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics across timescales in response to both weather and climate change. Benchmarks that are used to evaluate models generally consist of direct observations, data-model products, and data-derived patterns and relationships. Metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks may include (1) a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2) a scoring system to combine data-model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance for future improvement. Iterations between model evaluation and improvement via benchmarking shall demonstrate progress of land modeling and help establish confidence in land models for their predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate.

Description: We analyzed measurements of ozone (O3) and its precursors made at rural/suburban sites downwind of four large Chinese cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Lanzhou, to elucidate their pollution characteristics, regional transport, in situ production, and impacts of heterogeneous processes. The same measurement techniques and observation-based model were used to minimize uncertainties in comparison of the results due to difference in methodologies. All four cities suffered from serious O3 pollution but showed different precursor distributions. The model-calculated in situ O3 production rates were compared with the observed change rates to infer the relative contributions of on-site photochemistry and transport. At the rural site of Beijing, export of the well-processed urban plumes contributed to the extremely high O3 levels (up to an hourly value of 286 ppbv), while the O3 pollution observed at suburban sites of Shanghai, Guangzhou and Lanzhou was dominated by intense in-situ production. The O3 production was in a VOCs-limited regime in both Shanghai and Guangzhou, and a NOx-controlled regime in Lanzhou. The key VOC precursors are aromatics and alkenes in Shanghai, and aromatics in Guangzhou. The potential impacts on O3 production of several heterogeneous processes, namely, hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5), uptake of hydro peroxy radical (HO2) on particles and surface reactions of NO2 forming nitrous acid (HONO), were assessed. The analyses indicate the varying and considerable impacts of these processes in different areas of China depending on the atmospheric abundances of aerosol and NOx, and suggest the urgent need to better understand these processes and represent them in photochemical models.

Description: Despite a large volume of research over a number of years, our understandings of the key precursors that control tropospheric ozone production and the impacts of heterogeneous processes remain incomplete. In this study, we analyze measurements of ozone and its precursors made at rural/suburban sites downwind of four large Chinese cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Lanzhou. At each site the same measurement techniques were utilized and a photochemical box model based on the Master Chemical Mechanism (v3.2) was applied, to minimize uncertainties in comparison of the results due to differences in methodology. All four cities suffered from severe ozone pollution. At the rural site of Beijing, export of the well-processed urban plumes contributed to the extremely high ozone levels (up to an hourly value of 286 ppbv), while the pollution observed at the suburban sites of Shanghai, Guangzhou and Lanzhou was characterized by intense in-situ ozone production. The major anthropogenic hydrocarbons were alkenes and aromatics in Beijing and Shanghai, aromatics in Guangzhou, and alkenes in Lanzhou. The ozone production was found to be in a VOCs-limited regime in both Shanghai and Guangzhou, and a mixed regime in Lanzhou. In Shanghai, the ozone formation was most sensitive to aromatics and alkenes, while in Guangzhou aromatics were the predominant ozone precursors. In Lanzhou, either controlling NOx or reducing emissions of olefins from the petrochemical industry would mitigate the local ozone production. The potential impacts of several heterogeneous processes on the ozone formation were assessed. The hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5), uptake of the hydroperoxyl radical (HO2) on particles, and surface reactions of NO2 forming nitrous acid (HONO) present considerable sources of uncertainty in the current studies of ozone chemistry. Further efforts are urgently required to better understand these processes and refine atmospheric models.

Description: Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1) targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2) a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3) metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4) model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1) a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2) a scoring system to combine data–model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties of land models to improve their prediction performance skills.

Description: We analyzed the measurements of ozone (O3) and its precursors made at rural/suburban sites downwind of four large Chinese cities – Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Lanzhou, to elucidate their pollution characteristics, regional transport, in situ production, and impacts of heterogeneous processes. The same measurement techniques and observation-based model were used to minimize uncertainties in comparison of the results due to difference in methodologies. All four cities suffered from serious O3 pollution but showed different precursor distributions. The model-calculated in situ O3 production rates were compared with the observed change rates to infer the relative contributions of on-site photochemistry and transport. At the rural site downwind of Beijing, export of the well-processed urban plumes contributed to the extremely high O3 levels (up to an hourly value of 286 ppbv), while the O3 pollution observed at suburban sites of Shanghai, Guangzhou and Lanzhou was dominated by intense in situ production. The O3 production was in a volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited regime in both Shanghai and Guangzhou, and a NOx-limited regime in Lanzhou. The key VOC precursors are aromatics and alkenes in Shanghai, and aromatics in Guangzhou. The potential impacts on O3 production of several heterogeneous processes, namely, hydrolysis of dinitrogen pentoxide (N2O5), uptake of hydro peroxy radical (HO2) on particles and surface reactions of NO2 forming nitrous acid (HONO), were assessed. The analyses indicate the varying and considerable impacts of these processes in different areas of China depending on the atmospheric abundances of aerosol and NOx, and suggest the urgent need to better understand these processes and represent them in photochemical models.